Scheduling should play a role in the crowning of the NFC South winner. The Bucs have a modest closing schedule, but if the current numbers are to be believed, the Falcons and Saints have the easiest remaining schedules in the league.
Atlanta’s remaining games are against teams that are currently 25-44. That includes Arizona, Carolina and Chicago, and there’s no heavyweight opponent in there.
New Orleans’ schedule is similarly soft, with its opponents sitting at a combined 28-41. They’ve got three games left against the Panthers, Giants and Rams. (And New Orleans and Atlanta still need to play each other twice, which will be crucial.) With the NFC being the lesser of the two conferences, there’s a decent chance both of these teams make the postseason.
The hardest remaining schedules, meanwhile, belong to the Bengals, Ravens and Raiders.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Wks 10-18) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
Atlanta | 25 | 44 | .362 |
New Orleans | 28 | 41 | .406 |
Detroit | 29 | 39 | .426 |
Indianapolis | 30 | 37 | .448 |
Pittsburgh | 30 | 37 | .448 |
Houston | 30 | 35 | .462 |
Carolina | 31 | 36 | .463 |
Chicago | 31 | 36 | .463 |
Tampa Bay | 31 | 36 | .463 |
Philadelphia | 32 | 37 | .464 |
LA Chargers | 33 | 35 | .485 |
Green Bay | 33 | 34 | .493 |
LA Rams | 34 | 35 | .493 |
New England | 34 | 34 | .500 |
Tennessee | 33 | 33 | .500 |
Kansas City | 35 | 34 | .507 |
Cleveland | 34 | 33 | .507 |
Minnesota | 34 | 33 | .507 |
Jacksonville | 33 | 32 | .508 |
Denver | 35 | 32 | .522 |
Washington | 35 | 32 | .522 |
Arizona | 36 | 32 | .529 |
Miami | 36 | 32 | .529 |
Dallas | 37 | 32 | .536 |
NY Giants | 38 | 32 | .543 |
NY Jets | 38 | 32 | .543 |
Seattle | 38 | 29 | .567 |
Buffalo | 39 | 29 | .574 |
San Francisco | 39 | 29 | .574 |
Las Vegas | 40 | 29 | .580 |
Baltimore | 39 | 27 | .591 |
Cincinnati | 43 | 25 | .632 |
Some prefer to look not at wins but points allowed – the strength of defenses. With fantasy football, after all, we’re not so much concerned with winners as offensive production.
Looking at the next six games for each team (on this one, I’m trimming off some year-end games), I see five whose upcoming opponents are allowing at least 23 points per week: Lions, Falcons, Titans, Cowboys and Saints.
The three teams that should see the toughest defenses in the near future all have notable offenses: Jaguars, Eagles, Ravens.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (next 6 G) | |
---|---|
Team | Avg |
Detroit | 23.8 |
Atlanta | 23.5 |
Tennessee | 23.5 |
Dallas | 23.5 |
New Orleans | 23.0 |
New England | 22.9 |
Minnesota | 22.7 |
Pittsburgh | 22.7 |
Chicago | 22.4 |
Houston | 22.4 |
Tampa Bay | 22.3 |
San Francisco | 22.1 |
Washington | 21.9 |
NY Giants | 21.9 |
Cleveland | 21.9 |
NY Jets | 21.9 |
Arizona | 21.6 |
LA Chargers | 21.6 |
Indianapolis | 21.4 |
Kansas City | 21.3 |
Carolina | 21.1 |
Miami | 21.0 |
LA Rams | 21.0 |
Buffalo | 20.9 |
Seattle | 20.8 |
Green Bay | 20.6 |
Cincinnati | 20.4 |
Denver | 19.9 |
Las Vegas | 19.9 |
Baltimore | 19.8 |
Philadelphia | 19.3 |
Jacksonville | 18.3 |
—Ian Allan