Jets-Raiders play tonight, and when I was writing up that capsule, the money line caught my attention. The over-under (for total points scored) opened at 34.5 points (on DraftKings), and I can’t remember the last time I saw a number that low.
It’s since moved up to 36, but that’s still a remarkably low number. It’s a reflection of neither team having a viable quarterback and both teams being a lot better defensively. And defenses in general have been running ahead of offenses this season. For Week 10, there are five other over-under totals under 40: Panthers-Bears (38.5), Browns-Ravens (38), Packers-Steelers (39), Titans-Bucs (39) and Giants-Cowboys (38.5).
I poked around with some numbers on low over-under totals. I was surprised to see that for over-under of 37 points in the last 10 years, two thirds of those games have finished “under”. I think that means that when a number gets pushed down to something like 34.5, it eventually reaches a point where a good portion of gamblers just get the gut feeling that it’s too low.
There have been 36 such games in the last 10 years. Two of them have pushed, 10 have gone over, and 24 have finished with even fewer points than the low total. Collectively, those 36 games averaged 33.3 points, 3 points below what was set as the number.
I would guess with these six low over-under games for Week 10, they’re in general more likely to finish under than over.
GAMES WITH OVER/UNDERS OF 37 AND LOWER | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Wk | Winner | Loser | Score | O/U | Total | OU Result |
2014 | 16 | Seattle | at Arizona | 35-6 | 36 | 41 | • over |
2017 | 11 | Jacksonville | at Cleveland | 19-7 | 37 | 26 | under |
2017 | 14 | at Buffalo | Indianapolis | 13-7 | 36.5 | 20 | under |
2017 | 16 | at Chicago | Cleveland | 20-3 | 37 | 23 | under |
2018 | 12 | at Buffalo | Jacksonville | 24-21 | 36.5 | 45 | • over |
2018 | 14 | NY Jets | at Buffalo | 27-23 | 37 | 50 | • over |
2018 | 15 | Washington | at Jacksonville | 16-13 | 36.5 | 29 | under |
2018 | 17 | Chicago | at Minnesota | 21-19 | 36.5 | 40 | • over |
2019 | 4 | Jacksonville | at Denver | 26-24 | 37 | 50 | • over |
2019 | 7 | New Orleans | at Chicago | 36-25 | 37 | 61 | • over |
2019 | 9 | at Buffalo | Washington | 24-9 | 37 | 33 | under |
2019 | 12 | at Buffalo | Denver | 20-3 | 37 | 23 | under |
2019 | 15 | Buffalo | at Pittsburgh | 17-10 | 37 | 27 | under |
2019 | 16 | at NY Jets | Pittsburgh | 16-10 | 36.5 | 26 | under |
2019 | 17 | NY Jets | at Buffalo | 13-6 | 37 | 19 | under |
2019 | 17 | at Baltimore | Pittsburgh | 28-10 | 35 | 38 | • over |
2020 | 12 | New Orleans | at Denver | 31-3 | 36.5 | 34 | under |
2021 | 17 | at Chicago | NY Giants | 29-3 | 36.5 | 32 | under |
2021 | 18 | at Cleveland | Cincinnati | 21-16 | 37 | 37 | push |
2022 | 7 | NY Jets | at Denver | 16-9 | 37 | 25 | under |
2022 | 12 | at Carolina | Denver | 23-10 | 36 | 33 | under |
2022 | 14 | Baltimore | at Pittsburgh | 16-14 | 36.5 | 30 | under |
2022 | 15 | at Denver | Arizona | 24-15 | 36.5 | 39 | • over |
2022 | 16 | at Baltimore | Atlanta | 17-9 | 34.5 | 26 | under |
2022 | 16 | Houston | at Tennessee | 19-14 | 35.5 | 33 | under |
2022 | 16 | Jacksonville | at NY Jets | 19-3 | 37 | 22 | under |
2022 | 16 | New Orleans | at Cleveland | 17-10 | 32 | 27 | under |
2022 | 16 | at LA Rams | Denver | 51-14 | 36.5 | 65 | • over |
2022 | 17 | Pittsburgh | at Baltimore | 16-13 | 35 | 29 | under |
2022 | 18 | at Miami | NY Jets | 11-6 | 37 | 17 | under |
2023 | 3 | New England | at NY Jets | 15-10 | 36 | 25 | under |
2023 | 6 | at Cleveland | San Francisco | 19-17 | 36 | 36 | push |
2023 | 7 | Atlanta | at Tampa Bay | 16-13 | 37 | 29 | under |
2023 | 8 | NY Jets | at NY Giants | 13-10 | 36 | 23 | under |
2023 | 8 | at Tennessee | Atlanta | 28-23 | 36 | 51 | • over |
2023 | 9 | at Pittsburgh | Tennessee | 20-16 | 37 | 36 | under |
2023 | 10 | NY Jets | at Las Vegas | ?-? | 36 | ? | ? |
A couple of additional observations from the chart above.
• There are 37 games listed, but only one from the 2013-2016 seasons. We’re seeing more low over-under numbers.
• Most of the low over-under numbers come from later in the year. In the chart above, only three of the games come from Weeks 1-6, but 34 of the 37 come from Weeks 7-18. Week 16 is the most popular week, with eight of these games with over-unders of 37 and below. I think this is probably fueled primarily by quarterback injuries. You plug in a quarterback like Tommy DeVito (pictured) or Clayton Tune, and the offense is going to feel it. (And weather probably plays some role as well.)
—Ian Allan