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How low can you go?

Jets-Raiders opens with over-under of 34.5 points

Jets-Raiders play tonight, and when I was writing up that capsule, the money line caught my attention. The over-under (for total points scored) opened at 34.5 points (on DraftKings), and I can’t remember the last time I saw a number that low.

It’s since moved up to 36, but that’s still a remarkably low number. It’s a reflection of neither team having a viable quarterback and both teams being a lot better defensively. And defenses in general have been running ahead of offenses this season. For Week 10, there are five other over-under totals under 40: Panthers-Bears (38.5), Browns-Ravens (38), Packers-Steelers (39), Titans-Bucs (39) and Giants-Cowboys (38.5).

I poked around with some numbers on low over-under totals. I was surprised to see that for over-under of 37 points in the last 10 years, two thirds of those games have finished “under”. I think that means that when a number gets pushed down to something like 34.5, it eventually reaches a point where a good portion of gamblers just get the gut feeling that it’s too low.

There have been 36 such games in the last 10 years. Two of them have pushed, 10 have gone over, and 24 have finished with even fewer points than the low total. Collectively, those 36 games averaged 33.3 points, 3 points below what was set as the number.

I would guess with these six low over-under games for Week 10, they’re in general more likely to finish under than over.

GAMES WITH OVER/UNDERS OF 37 AND LOWER
YearWkWinnerLoserScoreO/UTotalOU Result
201416Seattleat Arizona35-63641• over
201711Jacksonvilleat Cleveland19-73726under
201714at BuffaloIndianapolis13-736.520under
201716at ChicagoCleveland20-33723under
201812at BuffaloJacksonville24-2136.545• over
201814NY Jetsat Buffalo27-233750• over
201815Washingtonat Jacksonville16-1336.529under
201817Chicagoat Minnesota21-1936.540• over
20194Jacksonvilleat Denver26-243750• over
20197New Orleansat Chicago36-253761• over
20199at BuffaloWashington24-93733under
201912at BuffaloDenver20-33723under
201915Buffaloat Pittsburgh17-103727under
201916at NY JetsPittsburgh16-1036.526under
201917NY Jetsat Buffalo13-63719under
201917at BaltimorePittsburgh28-103538• over
202012New Orleansat Denver31-336.534under
202117at ChicagoNY Giants29-336.532under
202118at ClevelandCincinnati21-163737push
20227NY Jetsat Denver16-93725under
202212at CarolinaDenver23-103633under
202214Baltimoreat Pittsburgh16-1436.530under
202215at DenverArizona24-1536.539• over
202216at BaltimoreAtlanta17-934.526under
202216Houstonat Tennessee19-1435.533under
202216Jacksonvilleat NY Jets19-33722under
202216New Orleansat Cleveland17-103227under
202216at LA RamsDenver51-1436.565• over
202217Pittsburghat Baltimore16-133529under
202218at MiamiNY Jets11-63717under
20233New Englandat NY Jets15-103625under
20236at ClevelandSan Francisco19-173636push
20237Atlantaat Tampa Bay16-133729under
20238NY Jetsat NY Giants13-103623under
20238at TennesseeAtlanta28-233651• over
20239at PittsburghTennessee20-163736under
202310NY Jetsat Las Vegas?-?36??

A couple of additional observations from the chart above.

• There are 37 games listed, but only one from the 2013-2016 seasons. We’re seeing more low over-under numbers.

• Most of the low over-under numbers come from later in the year. In the chart above, only three of the games come from Weeks 1-6, but 34 of the 37 come from Weeks 7-18. Week 16 is the most popular week, with eight of these games with over-unders of 37 and below. I think this is probably fueled primarily by quarterback injuries. You plug in a quarterback like Tommy DeVito (pictured) or Clayton Tune, and the offense is going to feel it. (And weather probably plays some role as well.)

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index