I think I need to be more open to drafting rookie wide receivers earlier. Every year we’re seeing about 3 finish with top-30 numbers.
For the current season, it didn’t seem to be a strong one for the position, with none of them drafted until the 20th pick overall. Nonetheless, here we are, halfway through the season, and there are first-year receivers compiling numbers.
The rookie receiver that most everyone thought would be the best, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, hasn’t made a big splash. He’s caught 29 passes for 272 yards and 2 TDs, mostly catching short passes out of the slot. He might be decent in the remaining games, but it hasn’t quite happened yet.
Instead, Puka Nacua has posted the best numbers, with 64 catches for 827 yards. It was pretty clear during the summer that Nacua had some potential, particularly with Cooper Kupp opening the season on IR. But I didn’t get beyond suggesting that he could be a nice player to select with your final choice. With Matthew Stafford healthy, we should have recommended Nacua more aggressively.
Two other first-round receivers are having good seasons. Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers have combined for 86 catches, 1,006 yards and 8 TDs. Addison has benefitted from Justin Jefferson’s hamstring injury; that couldn’t realistically be foreseen. But Flowers looked really good in one of Baltimore’s preseason games, making it seem pretty clear in hindsight that he would be their most productive wide receiver.
Two more lightly regarded rookie receivers in the AFC South are having good seasons: Josh Downs and Tank Dell (pictured). Both offenses have been a lot better than I expected. With Dell, he had that preseason opener at Foxboro, where he sure looked good. When the Texans then used Collins-Woods-Brown with their first-unit offense in their remaining preseason games, that made me underestimate the potential of him starting early (though with my expectations for the offense, I still wouldn’t have been high on him).
As things stand now, 41 wide receivers have a least 400 receiving yards. Six of those guys are rookies. That’s not great (I think it’s average or below-average in terms of what the norm is now). When we get to 2024, we should all be watching carefully for rookie receivers who might finish with top-20 receivers from the jump.
| WIDE RECEIVERS WITH AT LEAST 400 YARDS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD |
| Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 9 | 97 | 69 | 1,076 | 15.6 | 8 |
| A.J. Brown, Phil. | 9 | 92 | 67 | 1,005 | 15.0 | 6 |
| Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 9 | 97 | 70 | 834 | 11.9 | 7 |
| Puka Nacua, LAR | 9 | 96 | 64 | 827 | 12.9 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 8 | 72 | 57 | 824 | 14.5 | 3 |
| DJ Moore, Chi. | 10 | 71 | 52 | 793 | 15.3 | 5 |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 8 | 83 | 62 | 720 | 11.6 | 4 |
| JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 8 | 93 | 64 | 697 | 10.9 | 4 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 7 | 78 | 57 | 665 | 11.7 | 3 |
| Adam Thielen, Car. | 9 | 86 | 68 | 652 | 9.6 | 4 |
| Nico Collins, Hou. | 8 | 53 | 36 | 631 | 17.5 | 4 |
| Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 7 | 52 | 35 | 620 | 17.7 | 2 |
| Amari Cooper, Cle. | 8 | 63 | 35 | 617 | 17.6 | 2 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 8 | 60 | 37 | 594 | 16.1 | 5 |
| Michael Pittman Jr., Ind. | 9 | 86 | 58 | 593 | 10.2 | 3 |
| Davante Adams, L.V. | 9 | 85 | 51 | 573 | 11.2 | 3 |
| Justin Jefferson, Min. | 5 | 53 | 36 | 571 | 15.9 | 3 |
| Terry McLaurin, Was. | 9 | 71 | 47 | 568 | 12.1 | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Ten. | 8 | 64 | 35 | 564 | 16.1 | 3 |
| Chris Olave, N.O. | 9 | 85 | 50 | 563 | 11.3 | 2 |
| Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 8 | 81 | 46 | 549 | 11.9 | 2 |
| Jordan Addison, Min. | 9 | 59 | 41 | 534 | 13.0 | 7 |
| DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 9 | 60 | 42 | 533 | 12.7 | 4 |
| Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 8 | 59 | 40 | 522 | 13.1 | 3 |
| George Pickens, Pitt. | 8 | 58 | 30 | 521 | 17.4 | 3 |
| Christian Kirk, Jac. | 8 | 60 | 43 | 520 | 12.1 | 3 |
| Rashid Shaheed, N.O. | 9 | 41 | 26 | 501 | 19.3 | 3 |
| Josh Downs, Ind. | 9 | 57 | 41 | 483 | 11.8 | 2 |
| Zay Flowers, Balt. | 9 | 62 | 45 | 472 | 10.5 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 8 | 62 | 40 | 468 | 11.7 | 1 |
| Tank Dell, Hou. | 7 | 43 | 28 | 454 | 16.2 | 4 |
| DK Metcalf, Sea. | 7 | 50 | 28 | 454 | 16.2 | 2 |
| Calvin Ridley, Jac. | 8 | 58 | 33 | 451 | 13.7 | 2 |
| Jakobi Meyers, L.V. | 8 | 62 | 40 | 442 | 11.1 | 5 |
| Marquise Brown, Ari. | 9 | 77 | 42 | 440 | 10.5 | 4 |
| Michael Thomas, N.O. | 9 | 62 | 38 | 439 | 11.6 | 1 |
| Drake London, Atl. | 8 | 57 | 37 | 438 | 11.8 | 2 |
| Gabriel Davis, Buff. | 9 | 49 | 31 | 434 | 14.0 | 5 |
| Kendrick Bourne, N.E. | 8 | 55 | 37 | 406 | 11.0 | 4 |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 8 | 57 | 38 | 402 | 10.6 | 3 |
| Michael Wilson, Ari. | 8 | 33 | 25 | 401 | 16.0 | 2 |
—Ian Allan