I was surprised when I saw the line for the Eagles-49ers game. Philadelphia – 10-1 and playing at home – opened as 2.5-point underdog. And now the spread has moved to 3 points.
The Eagles won 31-7 when these teams met in the NFC Championship game. And they’ve been able to overcome some quality opponents recently, including the Cowboys, Bills, Dolphins and Kansas City. I expect they’ll get some fuel from the insult of people not believing in them.
The 49ers, however, have been the better team recently. The offenses are different but comparable (they’ve both scored exactly 310 points). But San Francisco’s defense has been operating at a much higher level, allowing 7 fewer points per game. Philadelphia’s defense is below average in terms of yards and points allowed.
And I have been puzzled by Philadelphia’s running game. It hasn’t been nearly as dominant as last year. With their Brotherly Shove play, they’ve been scoring lots of 1-yard touchdowns, but they haven’t been reliably gaining rushing yards in general.
The Eagles had those two huge running games early in the season, rushing for 259 yards against Minnesota and 201 at Tampa Bay. But since that time, they’ve run the ball modestly. The put up 185 yards on Buffalo on Sunday, getting it going in the second half, but they ran for fewer than 115 yards in six of their previous seven games. Those aren’t the kind of numbers you associate with this offense.
Below see the rushing totals for each team in its last eight games. Philadelphia has averaged only 114 yards. That’s 14th, which hardly seems possible considering how D’Andre Swift was running against the Vikings and Bucs.
And in their last eight games, Philadelphia has averaged only 3.9 yards per carry. That’s more than only five other teams.
I don’t think the Eagles are as bad as these numbers suggest. I don’t think they’ll have a bottom-10 YPC over the final month of the season. And I don’t think they’ll rank outside the top 10 in rushing in the remaining games. But if they don’t crank up the ground game some on Sunday, it will be tough for them to beat the 49ers.
| RUSHING, LAST EIGHT GAMES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| Baltimore | 251 | 1,298 | 5.2 | 14 |
| Chicago | 274 | 1,176 | 4.3 | 7 |
| Detroit | 236 | 1,171 | 5.0 | 14 |
| Atlanta | 261 | 1,147 | 4.4 | 7 |
| Pittsburgh | 227 | 1,053 | 4.6 | 8 |
| Cleveland | 261 | 1,052 | 4.0 | 8 |
| Miami | 199 | 1,032 | 5.2 | 11 |
| San Francisco | 235 | 1,008 | 4.3 | 13 |
| Indianapolis | 229 | 1,005 | 4.4 | 12 |
| LA Rams | 219 | 1,002 | 4.6 | 7 |
| Denver | 221 | 986 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Buffalo | 213 | 916 | 4.3 | 8 |
| NY Giants | 233 | 909 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Philadelphia | 236 | 909 | 3.9 | 13 |
| Arizona | 196 | 887 | 4.5 | 7 |
| Houston | 216 | 876 | 4.1 | 6 |
| Jacksonville | 240 | 873 | 3.6 | 9 |
| New Orleans | 223 | 868 | 3.9 | 5 |
| Tennessee | 194 | 859 | 4.4 | 6 |
| Green Bay | 195 | 859 | 4.4 | 4 |
| Dallas | 204 | 839 | 4.1 | 7 |
| Kansas City | 197 | 827 | 4.2 | 4 |
| LA Chargers | 203 | 819 | 4.0 | 6 |
| New England | 189 | 775 | 4.1 | 5 |
| Minnesota | 211 | 771 | 3.7 | 5 |
| NY Jets | 160 | 753 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Washington | 165 | 735 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Las Vegas | 199 | 731 | 3.7 | 6 |
| Carolina | 202 | 721 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Seattle | 179 | 692 | 3.9 | 4 |
| Tampa Bay | 183 | 660 | 3.6 | 3 |
| Cincinnati | 162 | 626 | 3.9 | 3 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan