It wasn’t supposed to be a strong year for rookie wide receivers. Then the season happened, with Puka Nacua leading the way and Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice and Jordan Addison not far behind.
Nacua broke the rookie records for catches and yards. Addison caught 10 touchdowns. And Rice and Flowers are the leading pass catchers for teams that will meet in the AFC Championship. Rice in his last eight games has caught 55 passes for 695 yards and 4 TDs, looking like a guy who’ll be catching over 100 passes next year.
Flowers caught 77 passes and 5 TDs, while also scoring a 37-yard touchdown on a running play.
Note with Rice and Flowers that they’ve both been high-percentage pass catchers. Rice has caught over 77 percent of the passes thrown his way. That’s the highest ever for a rookie receiver with at least 100 targets. And Flowers has caught 71 percent of the balls thrown in his direction.
Below see a list showing the 44 wide receivers in the 32-team era who’ve seen at least 100 targets in their rookie season. Rice and Flowers rank 1st and 6th on this list in terms of catch rate. Nacua and Addison aren’t far behind.
Part of this can be attributed to the evolution of the game. Teams complete more passes now than they did in the past. But Rice and Flowers look like legit players who’ll be making an impact in the coming years.
As an aside, note also that the 2024 draft will be a strong one for receivers. Marvin Harrison will be picked in the top 5, and Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers might also be selected in the top 10. Mock drafts suggest about a half dozen wide receivers will be selected in the first round. With the way rookie receivers can hit the ground running nowadays, I would think there will be about three rookie wide receivers who’ll finish the 2024 season with top-30 numbers.
| CATCH RATES FOR ROOKIE RECEIVERS (100 targets) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Pct |
| 2023 | Rashee Rice, K.C. | 102 | 79 | 938 | 11.9 | 7 | 77.5% |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 121 | 92 | 1,137 | 12.4 | 9 | 76.0% |
| 2021 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 119 | 90 | 912 | 10.1 | 5 | 75.6% |
| 2014 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 112 | 84 | 758 | 9.0 | 5 | 75.0% |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 140 | 104 | 1,015 | 9.8 | 6 | 74.3% |
| 2023 | Zay Flowers, Balt. | 108 | 77 | 858 | 11.1 | 5 | 71.3% |
| 2008 | Eddie Royal, Den. | 129 | 91 | 980 | 10.8 | 5 | 70.5% |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 125 | 88 | 1,400 | 15.9 | 7 | 70.4% |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 130 | 91 | 1,305 | 14.3 | 12 | 70.0% |
| 2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 105 | 71 | 1,046 | 14.7 | 8 | 67.6% |
| 2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 111 | 74 | 935 | 12.6 | 5 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | • Puka Nacua, LAR | 160 | 105 | 1,486 | 14.2 | 6 | 65.6% |
| 2004 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 122 | 80 | 1,193 | 14.9 | 7 | 65.6% |
| 2014 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 103 | 67 | 872 | 13.0 | 8 | 65.0% |
| 2023 | • Jordan Addison, Min. | 108 | 70 | 911 | 13.0 | 10 | 64.8% |
| 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 128 | 81 | 1,455 | 18.0 | 13 | 63.3% |
| 2020 | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 108 | 67 | 908 | 13.6 | 6 | 62.0% |
| 2016 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 105 | 65 | 683 | 10.5 | 8 | 61.9% |
| 2022 | Drake London, Atl. | 117 | 72 | 866 | 12.0 | 4 | 61.5% |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 104 | 64 | 916 | 14.3 | 5 | 61.5% |
| 2012 | Kendall Wright, Ten. | 104 | 64 | 626 | 9.8 | 4 | 61.5% |
| 2003 | Anquan Boldin, Ari. | 165 | 101 | 1,377 | 13.6 | 8 | 61.2% |
| 2006 | Marques Colston, N.O. | 115 | 70 | 1,038 | 14.8 | 8 | 60.9% |
| 2022 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 119 | 72 | 1,042 | 14.5 | 4 | 60.5% |
| 2007 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 116 | 70 | 995 | 14.2 | 5 | 60.3% |
| 2019 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 100 | 58 | 900 | 15.5 | 7 | 58.0% |
| 2020 | Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 109 | 62 | 873 | 14.1 | 9 | 56.9% |
| 2011 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 115 | 65 | 1,057 | 16.3 | 7 | 56.5% |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 147 | 83 | 1,103 | 13.3 | 4 | 56.5% |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 122 | 68 | 1,051 | 15.5 | 12 | 55.7% |
| 2003 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 119 | 66 | 976 | 14.8 | 4 | 55.5% |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 130 | 72 | 1,070 | 14.9 | 6 | 55.4% |
| 2008 | Donnie Avery, St.L. | 102 | 53 | 674 | 12.7 | 3 | 52.0% |
| 2008 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 120 | 62 | 912 | 14.7 | 2 | 51.7% |
| 2011 | Greg Little, Cle. | 119 | 61 | 709 | 11.6 | 2 | 51.3% |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 128 | 65 | 982 | 15.1 | 6 | 50.8% |
| 2004 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 115 | 58 | 780 | 13.5 | 8 | 50.4% |
| 2010 | Mike Williams, T.B. | 129 | 65 | 964 | 14.8 | 11 | 50.4% |
| 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 145 | 73 | 1,008 | 13.8 | 9 | 50.3% |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 132 | 64 | 865 | 13.5 | 5 | 48.5% |
| 2014 | John Brown, Ari. | 102 | 48 | 696 | 14.5 | 5 | 47.1% |
| 2020 | Jerry Jeudy, Den. | 113 | 52 | 856 | 16.5 | 3 | 46.0% |
| 2004 | Roy Williams, Det. | 118 | 54 | 817 | 15.1 | 8 | 45.8% |
| 2006 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 104 | 45 | 632 | 14.0 | 3 | 43.3% |
—Ian Allan