Few would dispute that the 49ers were fortunate to get by Green Bay. A dropped Pick Six, a field goal miss from 41 yards -- plays that could/would have changed the outcome. San Francisco is favored by 7 points, but that looks a little high, given the way both teams have played over the past month or so.
Brock Purdy hasn't played well lately. He led the game-winning 69-yard drive to beat the Packers; no one is taking that away from him. His only incompletion on that key series was a drop by George Kittle. But there were enough bad throws during the game that San Francisco was fortunate not to be trailing by more at that point. And Purdy really struggled in the Week 16 loss to Baltimore, throwing 4 interceptions. San Francisco losing this game, if it happens, seems a lot less likely to be a wild shootout than a game where Purdy turns it over once or twice.
But this matchup is a lot more favorable than Baltimore or even Green Bay (11th in pass defense). Detroit was 29th, allowing 268 yards per game and 28 touchdown passes. Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield threw for 367 and 349 yards, respectively, with 5 touchdown passes. Those games were played indoors, but the early forecast suggests weather won't be a problem. Six other opponents threw for over 300 yards against this defense (including three straight to close out the year), while more than half (9 of 17) threw multiple touchdowns. Purdy himself threw multiple touchdowns 9 times in 16 contests, and had five games over 300 yards. Recent performances are a concern, but a very favorable situation for him to get back on track. He doesn't run (9 yards per game, with 2 TDs).
It seems like Purdy will be short a key weapon, as he was for most of the win over Green Bay. Deebo Samuel caught 2 passes on his first 4 snaps in that one, but left with a shoulder injury. He's uncertain to be available, and if he plays it would probably be in a limited role -- no kick returns, for sure, and fears of him taking a big hit would probably reduce his role on offense. The kind of plays he runs, both as a runner and a pass catcher, would be difficult to implement if they're concerned about that shoulder. It's the NFC Championship so maybe he's active even if it's limited snaps or a decoy role. We'll see what he does in practice, but not a player we're comfortable recommending.
Brandon Aiyuk, in contrast, looks very good. He didn't do much against Green Bay, but earlier in the season when Samuel missed essentially three full games with a previous shoulder injury, Aiyuk had his two highest target totals and averaged 5 catches for 81 yards. And this is a choice matchup. Ian Allan made the case in a post yesterday. Additionally, 22 of the 28 touchdowns thrown against this defense went to wide receivers -- more than anyone but the Commanders and Eagles. When Aiyuk faced those defenses during the season, he caught 12 passes for 160 yards and scored in both games.
In the Championship Game rankings later this week, Jauan Jennings will probably be double-listed -- one ranking if Deebo is actually inactive, and a more conservative ranking if Samuel is active and presumably playing in at least some capacity. Including last week, Jenning was essentially the No. 2 wideout four times this season (with Samuel either out or leaving early). He was hit-or-miss, with just 2 catches against Cincinnati and Cleveland, but 5 for 54 at Minnesota and 5 for 61 against Green Bay. As the clear No. 2 against a suspect secondary, the better numbers seem a lot more likely. Unlikely there's another involved wideout (Chris Conley and Ray-Ray McCloud each caught 1 pass while playing 30-40 percent of the time last week).
George Kittle will likely be one of the top 2 targets. I posted something here last week pointing out that Kittle hadn't put up great numbers in previous playoff games. Just 1 TD in nine contests, and two over 60 yards. So of course, Kittle caught 4 for 81 and a touchdown last week (helped, perhaps, by Samuel leaving early). He also had a brutal concentration drop late, which didn't ultimately matter. Bottom line, I think this Purdy-led offense is more pass-focused than most of the Jimmy Garoppolo games. And the Lions just let Cade Otton catch 5 balls for 65 yards and a touchdown. I don't see any reason to think Kittle won't be a top-2 target again (and that's even if Samuel is playing; he'd be among the beneficiaries if Samuel is out). San Francisco will put other tight ends on the field, but not to throw to them. Kittle had 90 of the position's 95 targets during the season.
Nothing special to say about Christian McCaffrey. Two of the three other teams still playing will use a committee, while Kansas City also work in a second back to some degree -- a few passing situations, a few change-of-pace carries. McCaffrey played all but one snap against Green Bay, and that will probably be the case again. The Lions had the league's 2nd-ranked run defense during the season, and have held their playoff opponents to an average of 79 yards, with no TDs. But both of those teams' backs averaged at least 4.7 yards per attempt; they just favored the pass, either because it was the path of least resistance, or they fell behind. The Lions allowed 15 rushing scores during the season, which was average. McCaffrey averaged 91 rushing yards, with 14 TDs, but he was also the league's top reeiving back, at 35 yards per game (slightly more than Breece Hall), and with 7 more touchdowns. One way or another, he'll get his numbers. Interestingly, the Lions were the only team not to allow a touchdown reception by a running back during the season (but Rachaad White caught one last week).
Only the Commanders and the Lions themselves attempted fewer field goals during the season than San Francisco (25). The 49ers kicked about three times as many extra points (60) as field goals (21). The Lions allowed 6.9 points per week to kickers, which is actually most of the teams still playing, but the AFC kickers will likely grade out a little higher than Jake Moody.
The 49ers Defense had 22 interceptions, tied for tops in the league. Just 6 fumble recoveries, even while ranking 7th in sacks (48), highlighting the arbitrary nature of the stat. Jared Goff threw 12 interceptions, so he will force things at times, but took only 30 sacks. The Lions are a little banged-up on the offense line, but seems to be at best an even chance of San Francisco getting him more than twice. San Francisco has been using Deebo Samuel on kick returns, which won't be happening; probably Ray-Ray McCloud (experienced, but he's never actually scored on a return).
Next: Kansas City.
--Andy Richardson