Overview: There's not a lot of relevant history between these teams. You have to go back 40 years to find a playoff game (in 1983, San Francisco beat a Billy Sims-led Lions team 24-23, on a late Joe Montana to Freddie Solomon touchdown). Just one regular-season meeting the last five years (In 2021, Jimmy Garoppolo outdueled Jared Goff 41-33 in a season-opener at Ford Field).
San Francisco opened as a 7-point favorite, with an over-under of 51 -- straight off the numbers, a 29-22 type of game. The early forecast looks OK, with temperatures in the high 50s, just a 7-8 percent chance of rain, and only light wind (up to 8 mph).
(We'll take a look at all four Championship Game teams over the next three days; Detroit first, San Francsico tomorrow, and the AFC teams after that.)
LIONS:
It wasn't as pronounced as with Dallas, but the Lions also played their best ball at home (or at least indoors; they also played four away games in domed stadiums). In five games outside (Kansas City, Chicago, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Green Bay) they went 3-2, scoring 34 points at Green Bay but just 21, 13, 20 and 6 in the other four contests). It's fair to say they'd be better at Ford Field, and they're facing a tough defense. San Francisco was 8th in yards and 3rd in points allowed during the season, giving up 30 touchdowns -- about 1.8 TDs per game. The Lions averaged 3.4 TDs per game during the season, and have kept that going in their 2 home playoff games (7 TDs in those contests). But we're putting them down for 2-3 TDs this week, and with just 2 a little more likely. If they can spring the upset, seems more likely it will be by keeping San Francisco's offense in check, sneaking away with a 24-21 type of win. ... Offensive line injuries could be a factor for the offense. Guard Jonah Jackson will miss the game, and perennial Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow is expected to play, but at less than 100 percent (knee/ankle).
Jared Goff seems to kind of be on the spot, with all of his best games this season coming indoors. Goff threw multiple touchdowns 10 times this season. Seven of those games were at Ford Field, and the other three were in New Orleans, Tampa and Los Angeles. Only 2 of his 11 games with even 260 passing yards were outdoors: at Tampa, and in a blowout loss at Baltimore. This is not entirely an indictment of Goff, with the team choosing to emphasize the run in some of those games, but fair to say expectations should be lower than his season averages (269 passing yards, with 30 TD passes). San Francisco was tougher on the run than the pass (14th), but Goff finishing in the neighborhood of 240 yards with 1-2 TDs (and just 1 a little more likely) seems fair. He doesn't run, sneaking in 2 TDs but rushing for just 21 yards all season. The AFC quarterbacks will likely appear higher in the rankings this week.
San Francisco has the league's top running back, but Detroit has an outstanding one-two punch in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Both rushed for around 1,000 yards during the season (1015 for Montgomery, 945 for Gibbs), both scored double-digit touchdowns (13-11, Montgomery). Montgomery (with 37 more carries in one fewer game) should get more of the between the tackles work, including near the goal line, but Gibbs is also getting some of those chances, and doing a lot more as a receiver (three times as many catches during the season, 52-16, and a similar yardage edge, 316-117).
That split has continued into the two playoff games, but the differences between the two look a little more pronounced right now. Gibbs has been the more explosive player. Especially in the passing game, catching all 8 balls thrown his way for 83 yards (Montgomery has caught 4 for 25 on 5 targets). Gibbs' cutback 31-yard touchdown against the Bucs was one of the weekend's more impressive running plays; he also averaged over 5 yards per attempt on his other 8 carries (43 yards), while Montgomery was at 10 for 33. Montgomery was better against the Rams (14 for 57, compared to 8 for 25 for Gibbs, with both players scoring), but it's pretty clear which player has more upside. Especially against this 3rd-ranked run defense that allowed only 90 yards per game during the season. It wasn't as stingy against Aaron Jones, but given the way the two backs looked last week and the matchup itself (and the increased likelihood of Detroit playing from behind), we're ranking Gibbs higher.
Craig Reynolds scored a short touchdown last week, but that looked like more of a change-up move by Detroit, fooling Tampa Bay into thinking it would be a pass play (rather than handing the ball to their No. 3 on a critical fourth-down play). Reynolds has played only 6-7 snaps in each of the two games.
It's a slightly bel0w-average situation for the passing game, but hard to slot any wide receivers ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown. The AFC teams allowed the 3rd- and 6th-fewest touchdowns to the position during the season; San Francisco allowed the 9th-most (16). Detroit was even worse, but the 49ers have some uncertainty among the top 2, with Deebo Samuel uncertain to play. Matchups aside, St. Brown caught 40 more passes for 173 more yards and 3 more touchdowns than any other wideout still playing. No reason to think San Francsico will be taking him away.
Identifying a No. 2 is trickier. Josh Reynolds looks safest. In his last three he's caught 5 passes twice and then a touchdown against the Bucs. Kalif Raymond missed two of those with a knee injury and hasn't practiced, so no confidence he'll return for this one. The other possibility is Jameson Williams, but it's hard to sign off on him at this point. There's big-play potential -- four receptions over 30 yards this season, and a 24-yard catch last week -- but not enough of those have hit. Other than a pair of late-season games (Denver and at Minnesota) where he caught 4-5 shorter balls, Williams has no more than 2 receptions in any other contest. His last touchdown was at New Orleans, six weeks ago. Much better matchups at home the last two weeks, and Williams caught 4 passes for 54 yards.
In general the other wideouts are picking up scraps behind St. Brown, the running backs and Sam LaPorta. LaPorta injured a knee in the regular-season finale but has played 80-90 percent of the time in each playoff game, scoring against the Rams and catching a team-high 9 passes for 65 yards last week. Just 3 touchdowns by tight ends against the 49ers, but they haven't faced a lot of great ones. (The best player they saw recently, Trey McBride, caught 10 passes for 102 yards in Week 15.) Detroit signed Zach Ertz to its practice squad on Monday, after its second player at the position, Brock Wright, suffered a forearm injury against Tampa Bay. Wright, primarily a blocker, averaged a catch per game during the season. Even assuming Ertz is promoted to the active roster for the game, expectations should be minimal.
Aggressive Dan Campbell doesn't much care for field goals. The Lions attempted only 21 during the season, 3 fewer than any other team, and just 1 in each playoff game. San Francisco allowed just 6.5 points per week to kickers. Pass on Michael Badgley.
If the Lions can spring the upset, the matchup of the Lions Defense versus Brock Purdy might be the reason why. It had just 41 sacks (bottom-10) and 23 takeaways (slightly below-average), making it seem like a liability in this matchup. But Purdy has struggled down the stretch, following up a 4-interception trainwreck against Baltimore with last week's win over Green Bay that had some similar elements. (We're ignoring Purdy's last regular-season outing at Washington against the league's worst defense by almost every measure.) Purdy didn't turn it over against the Packers but had a Pick Six dropped and threw several other off-target balls that fell at defenders' feet; fortunate not to throw multiple interceptions. Just 1 sack (and only 28 during the season), but takeaway potential looks promising. The Lions don't have a return threat (primary punt returner Kalif Raymond won't necessarily play).
Next: San Francisco 49ers.
--Andy Richardson