I think there will be a market for Justin Fields. He’s unusually athletic, and I think there will be teams that want to work with that – thinking they’ll have more success with him than the Bears did.
Fields, after all, ran for 1,143 yards two years ago. He averages 6.2 yards per carry as a pro, with 14 rushing touchdowns, including 3 from over 50 yards. As a runner, he’s up there with the likes of Josh Allen, Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson.
There are, of course, issues to figure out. He takes way too many sacks (that was a problem for him at Ohio State, and it’s continued in the pros). He’s completed only 60 percent of his passes, and he’s fumbled 38 times in his first 40 games.
Most troubling, he hasn’t won many games. He’s gone only 10-28 as a starter in his first three season. He improved to 5-8 last year, but three years in, he’s off to one of the most underwhelming starts to a career in league history.
Below see the list of all quarterbacks in the 32-team era that started at least 20 games in their first three seasons without winning more than 40 percent of those games. Of those group, only one quarterback was able to turn things around, developing into a regular winner (Alex Smith, who went 11-19 in his first three seasons but went 88-48-1 in the later years of his career). Only one other player who’s started much doesn’t have a losing record – Geno Smith, who’s gone 19-18 the last three years for the Seahawks.
I understand that there’s some tools and potential with Fields. I think he’s worth a roll of the dice. But whatever team decides to take him on will need to have a viable Plan B. The big-picture historical numbers suggest it’s unlikely he’ll be able to truly turn things around.
| SLOW-STARTING CAREERS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | First 3 yrs | Rest of career |
| Blaine Gabbert | 5-22-0 | 9-13-0 |
| Davis Mills | 5-19-1 | ?-?-? |
| Brandon Weeden | 5-16-0 | 1-3-0 |
| Blake Bortles | 11-34-0 | 13-15-0 |
| Justin Fields | 10-28-0 | ?-?-? |
| JaMarcus Russell | 7-18-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Colt McCoy | 6-15-0 | 5-10-0 |
| Joey Harrington | 14-30-0 | 12-20-0 |
| Daniel Jones | 12-25-0 | 10-11-1 |
| David Carr | 14-29-0 | 9-27-0 |
| J.P. Losman | 8-16-0 | 2-7-0 |
| Sam Darnold | 13-25-0 | 8-10-0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 8-14-0 | 7-8-0 |
| Zach Wilson | 12-21-0 | ?-?-? |
| • Alex Smith | 11-19-0 | 88-48-1 |
| Sam Bradford | 15-26-1 | 19-22-0 |
| Geno Smith | 11-18-0 | 19-18-0 |
| Drew Lock | 8-13-0 | 1-1-0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 9-14-0 | 1-0-0 |
| Robert Griffin | 14-21-0 | 2-5-0 |
| Jameis Winston | 18-27-0 | 16-19-0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 20-30-0 | ?-?-? |
—Ian Allan