Yesterday I ran an article showing how the faster wide receivers (based on combine 40 times) have fared in their careers. Here's the companion piece to that, for running backs. As a whole (with some speed adjustment), they've done a lot better.
With the wide receivers, to come up with a manageable number to work with, I took all wideouts who ran a 4.35 or better at the combine, and then were drafted in the first three rounds. There were 43 such players this century (the advent of electronic timing).
For running backs, I set a slower threshold, since only 6 have turned in that fast a 40 time. Going with under 4.40 gives a field of 20 players, which is a pretty decent group to work with (and I'll discuss how that group has fared). I ended up going with under 4.45, which gave me a similar number of players -- 40 running backs since 2000.
In general, it's fair to say the fastest running backs have gone on to have a lot more success.
Of the 20 running backs to run a sub-4.4 40, exactly half of them (10) have had at least one top-10 fantasy season (PPR). The wide receiver numbers were less than one in five (8 out of 43). Six of those running backs had a top-3 season (some multiple such years).
Of the 40 running backs under 4.45, nearly half had at least one top-12 fantasy season, and three-quarters (29) had a top-25 campaign. That includes a couple of 2023 rookies, Jahmyr Gibbs and DeVon Achane. Both seem capable of churning out a few more, even better seasons in the years to come.
Only a couple of the fastest guys (4.35 or better) totally flopped: Rams first-rounder Trung Canidate, and 49ers second-rounder LaMichael James. Another disappointment from the first three rounds was Steeler Dri Archer, but Archer was a 5-foot-8, 173-pound third-rounder; nobody ever expected him to be a lead running back, but more likely make an impact on special teams (which didn't happen either).
Anyway, run a fast 40 time as a running back, and you're probably going to be selected in the first three rounds, and the chances of you having a significant NFL season or two look very good. Tennessee's Jaylen Wright (pictured) who ran a 4.38 this weekend and Florida State's Trey Benson (4.39) are among the better candidates from this year's draft.
Table shows the 40 fastest running backs (by 40 time) selected in the first three rounds this century, with numbers and PPR rank from their best NFL seasons. Those with a top-12 fantasy season are in bold.
| RUNNING BACKS RUNNING UNDER 4.45 SINCE 2000 (RD 1-3) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Player | Ht | Wt | 40 | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2008 | 1 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 5.11 | 203 | 4.24 | 2006 | 50 | 503 | 16 | 1 |
| 2014 | 3 | Dri Archer, Pitt. | 5.08 | 173 | 4.26 | 40 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 124 |
| 2023 | 3 | Devon Achane, Mia. | 5.09 | 188 | 4.32 | 800 | 27 | 197 | 11 | 25 |
| 2008 | 1 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 6.01 | 211 | 4.33 | 1157 | 47 | 507 | 10 | 8 |
| 2010 | 1 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 5.10 | 199 | 4.35 | 555 | 58 | 487 | 6 | 20 |
| 2012 | 2 | LaMichael James, S.F. | 5.08 | 194 | 4.35 | 125 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 116 |
| 2023 | 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 5.09 | 199 | 4.36 | 945 | 52 | 316 | 11 | 10 |
| 2011 | 3 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 6.00 | 219 | 4.37 | 1845 | 57 | 416 | 13 | 2 |
| 2010 | 1 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 5.11 | 196 | 4.37 | 1244 | 43 | 459 | 8 | 6 |
| 2004 | 2 | Tatum Bell, Den. | 5.11 | 212 | 4.37 | 921 | 18 | 104 | 8 | 24 |
| 2013 | 3 | Knile Davis, K.C. | 5.10 | 227 | 4.37 | 463 | 16 | 147 | 8 | 34 |
| 2008 | 3 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 5.11 | 200 | 4.38 | 1287 | 70 | 693 | 19 | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 5.09 | 211 | 4.38 | 1050 | 27 | 165 | 9 | 18 |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Bennett, Min. | 5.09 | 207 | 4.38 | 1296 | 37 | 351 | 6 | 18 |
| 2012 | 1 | David Wilson, NYG | 5.10 | 206 | 4.38 | 358 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 51 |
| 2020 | 2 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 5.10 | 226 | 4.39 | 1811 | 40 | 360 | 20 | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 5.11 | 217 | 4.39 | 994 | 76 | 591 | 9 | 2 |
| 2006 | 2 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 5.07 | 207 | 4.39 | 824 | 62 | 565 | 14 | 3 |
| 2020 | 3 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 6.00 | 228 | 4.39 | 1037 | 42 | 294 | 10 | 8 |
| 2012 | 2 | Isaiah Pead, St.L. | 5.10 | 197 | 4.39 | 21 | 11 | 78 | 0 | 108 |
| 2007 | 1 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 6.01 | 217 | 4.40 | 2097 | 40 | 217 | 13 | 1 |
| 2018 | 1 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 6.00 | 233 | 4.40 | 1307 | 91 | 721 | 15 | 2 |
| 2006 | 1 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 5.11 | 214 | 4.40 | 1072 | 41 | 364 | 15 | 4 |
| 2003 | 3 | Justin Fargas, Oak. | 6.01 | 219 | 4.40 | 1009 | 23 | 188 | 4 | 24 |
| 2006 | 3 | Jerious Norwood, Atl. | 6.00 | 210 | 4.40 | 489 | 36 | 338 | 6 | 34 |
| 2007 | 2 | Chris Henry, Ten. | 5.11 | 230 | 4.40 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 |
| 2001 | 1 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 6.01 | 222 | 4.41 | 1641 | 69 | 516 | 8 | 5 |
| 2008 | 1 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 5.10 | 225 | 4.41 | 1273 | 23 | 167 | 13 | 11 |
| 2014 | 3 | Jerick McKinnon, Min. | 5.09 | 209 | 4.41 | 570 | 51 | 421 | 5 | 17 |
| 2000 | 1 | Trung Canidate, St.L. | 5.11 | 193 | 4.41 | 441 | 17 | 154 | 6 | 39 |
| 2020 | 3 | Darrynton Evans, 2TM | 5.10 | 203 | 4.41 | 121 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 85 |
| 2008 | 2 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 5.08 | 199 | 4.42 | 1364 | 76 | 704 | 15 | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | James Cook, Buff. | 5.11 | 199 | 4.42 | 1122 | 44 | 445 | 6 | 11 |
| 2012 | 3 | Ronnie Hillman, Den. | 5.09 | 200 | 4.42 | 863 | 24 | 111 | 7 | 25 |
| 2005 | 1 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 6.00 | 233 | 4.43 | 916 | 33 | 254 | 10 | 16 |
| 2005 | 1 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 5.11 | 217 | 4.43 | 1178 | 20 | 81 | 6 | 21 |
| 2010 | 2 | Ben Tate, Hou. | 5.11 | 220 | 4.43 | 771 | 34 | 140 | 4 | 30 |
| 2008 | 2 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 6.01 | 217 | 4.44 | 1339 | 74 | 594 | 12 | 2 |
| 2008 | 1 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 5.10 | 207 | 4.44 | 800 | 48 | 450 | 2 | 23 |
| 2001 | 3 | Travis Minor, Mia. | 5.10 | 197 | 4.44 | 281 | 29 | 263 | 4 | 42 |
--Andy Richardson