There was some discussion yesterday of the "bridge quarterback," the mediocre veteran (ala Jacoby Brissett, pictured) teams employ while they patiently develop a highly regarded rookie. My sense was that such things don't actually happen anymore, but I thought I should go to the files to be certain.
The results were kind of what I expected. Draft a quarterback in the first or even the second round in today's NFL, and you seldom spend a lot of time letting that guy hold a clipboard and learn by watching. Screw that grooming nonsense -- let's stick him in the lineup, make the fans happy, and see what he can do. Lots of draft capital tied up in this guy, throw him into the fire!
In the last dozen years, there have been 45 quarterbacks selected in the first two rounds (36 first-rounders and 9 second-rounders). Thirty-one of those players (almost 70 percent) started more than half of their rookie seasons. Three others were starters by Week 9 or 10, and two of the ones who didn't start at least 7 games were early starters who got injured or they, too, would have joined the full-season guys. Include those guys and that's 36 of 45, or 80 percent.
I see exactly three guys who were drafted with the reasonable idea of them being a franchise quarterback but kept on the bench, healthy, for almost all of their rookie seasons. Trey Lance, Johnny Manziel and Patrick Mahomes. (A few weak stabs by Denver in those years can be debated, I guess, but certainly Jimmy G was never expected to beat out Tom Brady, and Jalen Hurts was reportedly viewed more as a Taysom Hill type than franchise passer. Only the Jets know what they were thinking with Christian Hackenburg.)
Table shows all 45 first- and second-round quarterbacks from the last dozen years, sorted by rookie year starts. Guys where injuries kept them from starting all season are in italics.
Worth noting, by the way, that only six of these quarterbacks wound up being fantasy assets in typical one-quarterback leagues. Only Kyler Murray, Jameis Winston, Andrew Luck, C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert and Robert Griffin ranked in the top 15 at the position as rookies.
| FIRST- AND SECOND-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2012-2023 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | Rk |
| 2021 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 3641 | 12 | 17 | 334 | 2 | 22 |
| 2021 | 1 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 17 | 3801 | 22 | 13 | 129 | 0 | 17 |
| 2023 | 1 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 2877 | 11 | 10 | 253 | 0 | 23 |
| 2019 | 1 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 12 | 544 | 4 | 6 |
| 2016 | 1 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 3782 | 16 | 14 | 150 | 2 | 22 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 4042 | 22 | 15 | 213 | 6 | 13 |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 4374 | 23 | 18 | 255 | 5 | 9 |
| 2012 | 1 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 3294 | 12 | 13 | 211 | 2 | 24 |
| 2014 | 2 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 16 | 3270 | 21 | 12 | 92 | 0 | 20 |
| 2013 | 2 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 16 | 3046 | 12 | 21 | 366 | 6 | 20 |
| 2023 | 1 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 15 | 4108 | 23 | 5 | 167 | 3 | 13 |
| 2020 | 1 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 4336 | 31 | 10 | 234 | 5 | 9 |
| 2012 | 1 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. | 15 | 3385 | 14 | 17 | 111 | 0 | 25 |
| 2012 | 1 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 3200 | 20 | 5 | 815 | 7 | 10 |
| 2017 | 2 | DeShone Kizer, Cle. | 15 | 2894 | 11 | 22 | 419 | 5 | 22 |
| 2021 | 1 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 2334 | 9 | 11 | 185 | 4 | 30 |
| 2018 | 1 | Josh Rosen, Ari. | 13 | 2278 | 11 | 14 | 138 | 0 | 32 |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 13 | 3725 | 27 | 14 | 131 | 0 | 17 |
| 2018 | 1 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 2865 | 17 | 15 | 138 | 1 | 24 |
| 2014 | 1 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 2908 | 11 | 17 | 419 | 0 | 21 |
| 2022 | 1 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 12 | 2404 | 7 | 9 | 237 | 3 | 28 |
| 2019 | 1 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 3027 | 24 | 12 | 279 | 2 | 20 |
| 2017 | 1 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 2193 | 7 | 7 | 248 | 2 | 29 |
| 2015 | 1 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 2818 | 19 | 10 | 252 | 2 | 22 |
| 2014 | 1 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 12 | 2919 | 14 | 12 | 209 | 1 | 22 |
| 2018 | 1 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 2074 | 10 | 12 | 631 | 8 | 22 |
| 2021 | 1 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 1870 | 7 | 10 | 420 | 2 | 31 |
| 2020 | 1 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 2688 | 13 | 5 | 142 | 3 | 25 |
| 2013 | 1 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 10 | 1972 | 11 | 9 | 186 | 2 | 28 |
| 2020 | 1 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 9 | 1814 | 11 | 5 | 109 | 3 | 34 |
| 2023 | 2 | Will Levis, Ten. | 9 | 1808 | 8 | 4 | 57 | 1 | 32 |
| 2019 | 1 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 7 | 1365 | 7 | 7 | 101 | 0 | 33 |
| 2018 | 1 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 7 | 1201 | 6 | 3 | 695 | 5 | 30 |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, LAR | 7 | 1089 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 37 |
| 2017 | 1 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 6 | 1699 | 19 | 8 | 269 | 2 | 27 |
| 2019 | 2 | Drew Lock, Den. | 5 | 1020 | 7 | 3 | 72 | 0 | 37 |
| 2023 | 1 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 4 | 577 | 3 | 1 | 136 | 4 | 43 |
| 2020 | 2 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 4 | 1061 | 6 | 4 | 354 | 3 | 36 |
| 2021 | 1 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 2 | 603 | 5 | 2 | 168 | 1 | 40 |
| 2016 | 1 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 2 | 497 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 43 |
| 2014 | 1 | Johnny Manziel, Cle. | 2 | 175 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 53 |
| 2017 | 1 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 1 | 284 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 53 |
| 2016 | 2 | Christian Hackenberg, NYJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
| 2014 | 2 | Jimmy Garoppolo, N.E. | 0 | 182 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 54 |
| 2012 | 2 | Brock Osweiler, Den. | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | -13 | 0 | 999 |
If the mocks are to be believed, there will be at least six quarterbacks selected in the first two rounds (maybe the first round, depending on how much optimism there is among teams for Bo Nix and Michael Penix). Wherever they end up, betting against them starting at least 9-10 games as rookies doesn't look like a winner.
--Andy Richardson