I’ve got the red zone numbers in front of me, and the stats for the Jets are even worse than I thought. They had a historically bad offense last year.
New York made it to the red zone only 37 times last year (the fewest in the league – 16 below the league average). But more damning, they were able to turn only 12 of those 37 possessions into touchdowns.
They’re the only team in the last 10 years that hasn’t scored on even a third of its red zone possessions. Fans of this team have seen a lot of bad offenses over the years (of the 30 worst red zone offenses of the last decade, the Jets have seven of them) but this was New York’s worst offense.
| RED ZONE, LOWEST TOUCHDOWN PERCENTAGE (last 10 years) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Poss | TD | TD Pct |
| 2023 | NY Jets | 37 | 12 | 32.4% |
| 2019 | Pittsburgh | 40 | 14 | 35.0% |
| 2016 | • NY Jets | 54 | 19 | 35.2% |
| 2014 | • NY Jets | 47 | 17 | 36.2% |
| 2015 | Cleveland | 47 | 18 | 38.3% |
| 2017 | Denver | 48 | 19 | 39.6% |
| 2017 | Indianapolis | 40 | 16 | 40.0% |
| 2019 | Jacksonville | 47 | 19 | 40.4% |
| 2014 | Jacksonville | 32 | 13 | 40.6% |
| 2016 | Houston | 44 | 18 | 40.9% |
| 2018 | San Francisco | 51 | 21 | 41.2% |
| 2017 | Arizona | 48 | 20 | 41.7% |
| 2017 | Kansas City | 50 | 21 | 42.0% |
| 2020 | • NY Jets | 38 | 16 | 42.1% |
| 2014 | Arizona | 38 | 16 | 42.1% |
| 2022 | New England | 45 | 19 | 42.2% |
| 2021 | New England | 45 | 19 | 42.2% |
| 2014 | Buffalo | 51 | 22 | 43.1% |
| 2014 | San Francisco | 44 | 19 | 43.2% |
| 2022 | • NY Jets | 46 | 20 | 43.5% |
| 2021 | • NY Jets | 46 | 20 | 43.5% |
| 2015 | San Francisco | 39 | 17 | 43.6% |
| 2019 | Cincinnati | 48 | 21 | 43.8% |
| 2018 | Jacksonville | 34 | 15 | 44.1% |
| 2023 | NY Giants | 43 | 19 | 44.2% |
| 2015 | Dallas | 45 | 20 | 44.4% |
| 2015 | NY Giants | 54 | 24 | 44.4% |
| 2018 | • NY Jets | 45 | 20 | 44.4% |
| 2019 | Arizona | 53 | 24 | 45.3% |
| 2016 | Kansas City | 55 | 25 | 45.5% |
The Jets have some potential to get a lot better. In Breece Hall (pictured) and Garrett Wilson, they have arguably the best young runner-receiver combo in the league. And Aaron Rodgers is expected to be healthy and ready to roll. But this is a group that needs an influx of talent, particularly on the offensive line. And another pass-catching option makes sense. Jets should be adding a notable free agent or two next week, I’m thinking.
While I’ve got these red-zone numbers in front of me, I also see that Tennessee’s defense was unusually good in that part of the field last year, allowing touchdowns on only 23 of 60 possessions. That’s 38 percent – the 3rd-best number of the last 10 years.
I don’t expect there to be much carryover into 2024. They fired Mike Vrbel, after all, so I expect the defense will be dramatically different. But it’s an indication that there’s a least some talent on that side of the ball.
| RED ZONE DEFENSE, LOWEST TD PERCENTAGE (last 10 years) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Poss | TD | TD Pct |
| 2015 | NY Jets | 40 | 14 | 35.0% |
| 2017 | LA Chargers | 36 | 13 | 36.1% |
| 2023 | Tennessee | 60 | 23 | 38.3% |
| 2014 | Kansas City | 54 | 21 | 38.9% |
| 2019 | Denver | 46 | 18 | 39.1% |
| 2017 | Jacksonville | 28 | 11 | 39.3% |
| 2016 | NY Giants | 43 | 17 | 39.5% |
| 2017 | Minnesota | 40 | 16 | 40.0% |
| 2023 | Baltimore | 49 | 20 | 40.8% |
| 2015 | St. Louis | 48 | 20 | 41.7% |
| 2023 | Tampa Bay | 54 | 23 | 42.6% |
| 2021 | New Orleans | 46 | 20 | 43.5% |
| 2019 | Minnesota | 48 | 21 | 43.8% |
| 2022 | LA Rams | 54 | 24 | 44.4% |
| 2018 | Philadelphia | 56 | 25 | 44.6% |
| 2018 | Tennessee | 47 | 21 | 44.7% |
| 2022 | Buffalo | 49 | 22 | 44.9% |
| 2018 | Minnesota | 49 | 22 | 44.9% |
| 2023 | Atlanta | 53 | 24 | 45.3% |
| 2023 | Pittsburgh | 50 | 23 | 46.0% |
| 2023 | New England | 52 | 24 | 46.2% |
| 2022 | Baltimore | 56 | 26 | 46.4% |
| 2020 | Denver | 61 | 29 | 47.5% |
| 2019 | Baltimore | 44 | 21 | 47.7% |
| 2022 | NY Jets | 46 | 22 | 47.8% |
| 2021 | New England | 48 | 23 | 47.9% |
| 2019 | New England | 29 | 14 | 48.3% |
| 2017 | Baltimore | 45 | 22 | 48.9% |
| 2023 | NY Jets | 49 | 24 | 49.0% |
| 2019 | Cincinnati | 51 | 25 | 49.0% |
—Ian Allan