I’m not a big fan of rookie quarterbacks, but I think I’ll have some interest in Caleb Williams. He looks really good, and I like the situation he’s being dropped into.

Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. Those are wide receivers who can help a young quarterback along. And the Bears have Cole Kmet at tight end.

Williams closed out his time at Southern Cal by losing five of his last six games. He fumbled 16 times in his final season, and there were times he tried to do too much, taking unnecessary sacks.

But there’s no doubting the talent. He’s got more mobility than most quarterbacks (he ran for 21 touchdowns for the Trojans). And he’s got that Mahomes-type feel for making big throws while he’s scrambling around. He threw 72 TDs versus only 10 picks in his 26 starts at Southern Cal.

Arm strength is definitely a plus. If they’re doing an NFL’s Strongest Arm competition, he’s definitely one of the guys who’ll be invited to compete (along, off the top of my head, with Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Will Levis). I don’t have official numbers for all of his throws, but I saw a touchdown pass to Jerry Rice’s kid against Stanford that traveled 65 yards in the air, and one against UCLA that went 60. Per Next Gen Stats, nobody at the NFL level last year completed a pass that went more than 62 yards (high for 2022 was 63 yards).

Plenty of risk involved, of course, but we do see rookie quarterbacks have success from time to time. C.J. Stroud lit it up last year, and Anthony Richardson looked like he was going to be really good as well until he got hurt.

In the last 15 years, I see six rookie quarterbacks who have finished with top-10 numbers, and I see another 11 who’ve finished in the top 20. That’s using per-start production, and considering only quarterbacks who started at least half the time. (This approach allows for more of an apples-to-apples comparison.) In the charts below, the top-10 guys are in bold, while the other top-20 players are tagged with black dots.

Ranking 19th or 20th in per-game production, of course, isn’t move-the-needle stuff. There are only 32 teams, with about that many quarterbacks each year starting at least half the time. But in a 12-team fantasy league with each team rostering two, there would be 24 quarterbacks rostered.

For ballpark purposes today, I would be comfortable with Caleb Williams as my second quarterback in a 12-team league, with the chance he might end up being a little better than an acceptable second quarterback.

Below is the rundown of all rookie quarterbacks who’ve started at least half the time in the last 15 years. The first chart shows the 34 who were first-round picks. The second chart shows the 18 quarterbacks selected after the first round who started at least half the time in their first season.

FIRST-ROUNDERS STARTING AT LEAST HALF THE SEASON (per-game stats)
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPtsRk
2009• Matthew Stafford, Det.102271.3011.2019.014
2009Josh Freeman, T.B.92041.1117.0016.823
2009Mark Sanchez, NYJ15163.807.2013.528
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.162201.134.0616.224
2011Cam Newton, Car.162531.3144.8827.84
2011Christian Ponder, Min.101751.3021.0016.124
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.14154.867.0011.833
2012Robert Griffin, Was.152131.3354.4724.25
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.162731.4416.3122.910
2012Brandon Weeden, Cle.15226.937.0015.827
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.16206.7513.1315.628
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.101971.1019.2017.725
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Min.122311.1715.0818.621
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.13207.6930.0016.227
2015• Marcus Mariota, Ten.122351.5821.2522.216
2015• Jameis Winston, T.B.162531.3813.3821.817
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.162361.009.1317.827
2017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.12183.5821.1714.729
2018• Baker Mayfield, Cle.132712.0810.0023.011
2018• Josh Allen, Buff.11182.9155.7322.813
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ132201.3111.0817.827
2018Josh Rosen, Ari.13172.8510.0013.132
2019Daniel Jones, NYG122512.0023.1724.28
2019• Kyler Murray, Ari.162331.2534.2521.913
2020Justin Herbert, LAC152892.0716.3326.57
2020• Joe Burrow, Cin.102691.3014.3021.915
2020Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.92011.2212.3318.429
2021Mac Jones, N.E.172241.298.0017.126
2021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.17214.7120.1216.229
2021Justin Fields, Chi.10180.7039.1016.330
2021Zach Wilson, NYJ13180.6914.3115.231
2022Kenny Pickett, Pitt.12190.5819.0814.530
2023C.J. Stroud, Hou.152741.5311.2022.37
2023Bryce Young, Car.16180.6916.0013.628
OTHER ROOKIES STARTING AT LEAST HALF THE SEASON (per-game stats)
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPtsRk
2009Chad Henne, Mia.13214.922.0815.126
2010Colt McCoy, Cle.8197.7517.1315.327
2010Jimmy Clausen, Car.10150.306.009.332
2011Andy Dalton, Cin.162121.2510.0616.921
2011Curtis Painter, Ind.8185.7513.0013.631
2012• Russell Wilson, Sea.161951.6331.2520.812
2013Case Keenum, Hou.82201.139.1317.226
2013Geno Smith, NYJ16190.7523.3817.127
2013Mike Glennon, T.B.132011.463.0016.231
2014Derek Carr, Oak.162041.316.0016.028
2016• Dak Prescott, Dall.162291.4418.3821.217
2016Cody Kessler, Cle.8171.752.0012.031
2017DeShone Kizer, Cle.15193.7328.3317.421
2018• Nick Mullens, S.F.82851.63-2.0020.820
2019• Gardner Minshew, Jac.122371.5028.0021.018
2021Davis Mills, Hou.112281.363.0017.425
2023Aidan O'Connell, L.V.102141.101.1015.824
2023Will Levis, Ten.9201.896.1115.125

—Ian Allan