Factoid

March 20, 2024

Caleb Williams

Instant impact looks possible for Chicago

I’m not a big fan of rookie quarterbacks, but I think I’ll have some interest in Caleb Williams. He looks really good, and I like the situation he’s being dropped into.

Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. Those are wide receivers who can help a young quarterback along. And the Bears have Cole Kmet at tight end.

Williams closed out his time at Southern Cal by losing five of his last six games. He fumbled 16 times in his final season, and there were times he tried to do too much, taking unnecessary sacks.

But there’s no doubting the talent. He’s got more mobility than most quarterbacks (he ran for 21 touchdowns for the Trojans). And he’s got that Mahomes-type feel for making big throws while he’s scrambling around. He threw 72 TDs versus only 10 picks in his 26 starts at Southern Cal.

Arm strength is definitely a plus. If they’re doing an NFL’s Strongest Arm competition, he’s definitely one of the guys who’ll be invited to compete (along, off the top of my head, with Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Will Levis). I don’t have official numbers for all of his throws, but I saw a touchdown pass to Jerry Rice’s kid against Stanford that traveled 65 yards in the air, and one against UCLA that went 60. Per Next Gen Stats, nobody at the NFL level last year completed a pass that went more than 62 yards (high for 2022 was 63 yards).

Plenty of risk involved, of course, but we do see rookie quarterbacks have success from time to time. C.J. Stroud lit it up last year, and Anthony Richardson looked like he was going to be really good as well until he got hurt.

In the last 15 years, I see six rookie quarterbacks who have finished with top-10 numbers, and I see another 11 who’ve finished in the top 20. That’s using per-start production, and considering only quarterbacks who started at least half the time. (This approach allows for more of an apples-to-apples comparison.) In the charts below, the top-10 guys are in bold, while the other top-20 players are tagged with black dots.

Ranking 19th or 20th in per-game production, of course, isn’t move-the-needle stuff. There are only 32 teams, with about that many quarterbacks each year starting at least half the time. But in a 12-team fantasy league with each team rostering two, there would be 24 quarterbacks rostered.

For ballpark purposes today, I would be comfortable with Caleb Williams as my second quarterback in a 12-team league, with the chance he might end up being a little better than an acceptable second quarterback.

Below is the rundown of all rookie quarterbacks who’ve started at least half the time in the last 15 years. The first chart shows the 34 who were first-round picks. The second chart shows the 18 quarterbacks selected after the first round who started at least half the time in their first season.

FIRST-ROUNDERS STARTING AT LEAST HALF THE SEASON (per-game stats)
Year	Player	St	Pass	TDP	Run	TDR	Pts	Rk
2009	• Matthew Stafford, Det.	10	227	1.30	11	.20	19.0	14
2009	Josh Freeman, T.B.	9	204	1.11	17	.00	16.8	23
2009	Mark Sanchez, NYJ	15	163	.80	7	.20	13.5	28
2010	Sam Bradford, St.L.	16	220	1.13	4	.06	16.2	24
2011	Cam Newton, Car.	16	253	1.31	44	.88	27.8	4
2011	Christian Ponder, Min.	10	175	1.30	21	.00	16.1	24
2011	Blaine Gabbert, Jac.	14	154	.86	7	.00	11.8	33
2012	Robert Griffin, Was.	15	213	1.33	54	.47	24.2	5
2012	Andrew Luck, Ind.	16	273	1.44	16	.31	22.9	10
2012	Brandon Weeden, Cle.	15	226	.93	7	.00	15.8	27
2012	Ryan Tannehill, Mia.	16	206	.75	13	.13	15.6	28
2013	EJ Manuel, Buff.	10	197	1.10	19	.20	17.7	25
2014	Teddy Bridgewater, Min.	12	231	1.17	15	.08	18.6	21
2014	Blake Bortles, Jac.	13	207	.69	30	.00	16.2	27
2015	• Marcus Mariota, Ten.	12	235	1.58	21	.25	22.2	16
2015	• Jameis Winston, T.B.	16	253	1.38	13	.38	21.8	17
2016	Carson Wentz, Phil.	16	236	1.00	9	.13	17.8	27
2017	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	12	183	.58	21	.17	14.7	29
2018	• Baker Mayfield, Cle.	13	271	2.08	10	.00	23.0	11
2018	• Josh Allen, Buff.	11	182	.91	55	.73	22.8	13
2018	Sam Darnold, NYJ	13	220	1.31	11	.08	17.8	27
2018	Josh Rosen, Ari.	13	172	.85	10	.00	13.1	32
2019	Daniel Jones, NYG	12	251	2.00	23	.17	24.2	8
2019	• Kyler Murray, Ari.	16	233	1.25	34	.25	21.9	13
2020	Justin Herbert, LAC	15	289	2.07	16	.33	26.5	7
2020	• Joe Burrow, Cin.	10	269	1.30	14	.30	21.9	15
2020	Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.	9	201	1.22	12	.33	18.4	29
2021	Mac Jones, N.E.	17	224	1.29	8	.00	17.1	26
2021	Trevor Lawrence, Jac.	17	214	.71	20	.12	16.2	29
2021	Justin Fields, Chi.	10	180	.70	39	.10	16.3	30
2021	Zach Wilson, NYJ	13	180	.69	14	.31	15.2	31
2022	Kenny Pickett, Pitt.	12	190	.58	19	.08	14.5	30
2023	C.J. Stroud, Hou.	15	274	1.53	11	.20	22.3	7
2023	Bryce Young, Car.	16	180	.69	16	.00	13.6	28

OTHER ROOKIES STARTING AT LEAST HALF THE SEASON (per-game stats)
Year	Player	St	Pass	TDP	Run	TDR	Pts	Rk
2009	Chad Henne, Mia.	13	214	.92	2	.08	15.1	26
2010	Colt McCoy, Cle.	8	197	.75	17	.13	15.3	27
2010	Jimmy Clausen, Car.	10	150	.30	6	.00	9.3	32
2011	Andy Dalton, Cin.	16	212	1.25	10	.06	16.9	21
2011	Curtis Painter, Ind.	8	185	.75	13	.00	13.6	31
2012	• Russell Wilson, Sea.	16	195	1.63	31	.25	20.8	12
2013	Case Keenum, Hou.	8	220	1.13	9	.13	17.2	26
2013	Geno Smith, NYJ	16	190	.75	23	.38	17.1	27
2013	Mike Glennon, T.B.	13	201	1.46	3	.00	16.2	31
2014	Derek Carr, Oak.	16	204	1.31	6	.00	16.0	28
2016	• Dak Prescott, Dall.	16	229	1.44	18	.38	21.2	17
2016	Cody Kessler, Cle.	8	171	.75	2	.00	12.0	31
2017	DeShone Kizer, Cle.	15	193	.73	28	.33	17.4	21
2018	• Nick Mullens, S.F.	8	285	1.63	-2	.00	20.8	20
2019	• Gardner Minshew, Jac.	12	237	1.50	28	.00	21.0	18
2021	Davis Mills, Hou.	11	228	1.36	3	.00	17.4	25
2023	Aidan O'Connell, L.V.	10	214	1.10	1	.10	15.8	24
2023	Will Levis, Ten.	9	201	.89	6	.11	15.1	25

—Ian Allan

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