I’m not a big fan of Zach Ertz (signed by Washington as a possibility at tight end). He’s 33, he’s had injuries the last two years, and I think it’s over for him.
Ertz was pretty awful last year in his seven games for Arizona. He caught only 27 of the 43 passes thrown his way, and those catches averaged only 6.9 yards.
If we’re including incompletions, Ertz averaged only 4.3 yards per pass play last year, which is one of the 10 worst figures for a tight end (with at least 40 targets) in the last 30 years.
There’s not a lot much juice left in his game, as evidenced by that 6.9-yard average. Since the merger in 1970, only 17 tight ends have caught at least 20 passes and not averaged more than 7 catches per catch.
| TIGHT ENDS AVERAGING UNDER 7 YARDS PER CATCH | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 1989 | Damone Johnson, LAR | 25 | 148 | 5.9 | 5 |
| 1991 | Derrick Walker, S.D. | 20 | 134 | 6.7 | 0 |
| 1993 | Ron Middleton, Was. | 24 | 154 | 6.4 | 2 |
| 1993 | Marv Cook, N.E. | 22 | 154 | 7.0 | 1 |
| 1994 | Paul Green, Sea. | 30 | 208 | 6.9 | 1 |
| 1995 | Marv Cook, St.L. | 26 | 135 | 5.2 | 1 |
| 1995 | Andrew Jordan, Min. | 27 | 185 | 6.9 | 2 |
| 2000 | Terry Hardy, Ari. | 27 | 160 | 5.9 | 1 |
| 2001 | Fred Baxter, Chi. | 22 | 148 | 6.7 | 2 |
| 2003 | Casey Fitzsimmons, Det. | 23 | 160 | 7.0 | 2 |
| 2004 | Shad Meier, Ten. | 25 | 127 | 5.1 | 2 |
| 2005 | Marcellus Rivers, Hou. | 24 | 168 | 7.0 | 0 |
| 2006 | Steve Heiden, Cle. | 36 | 249 | 6.9 | 2 |
| 2008 | Reggie Kelly, Cin. | 31 | 207 | 6.7 | 0 |
| 2014 | Benjamin Watson, N.O. | 20 | 136 | 6.8 | 2 |
| 2021 | Geoff Swaim, Ten. | 31 | 210 | 6.8 | 3 |
| 2023 | Zach Ertz, Ari. | 27 | 187 | 6.9 | 1 |
While I would like to offer that up as proof that Ertz can’t possibly put together a successful season with Washington, I will concede that four of those sputtering tight ends in their next seasons were able to put together top-30 numbers in their next seasons. Benjamin Watson (the same age as Ertz at the time) was the 7th-best tight end in 2015 (using PPR scoring).
| TIGHT ENDS AVERAGING 7 PER CATCH (the next yr) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 1990 | • Damone Johnson, LAR | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 3 | 36.6 | 27 |
| 1992 | • Derrick Walker, S.D. | 34 | 393 | 11.6 | 2 | 85.3 | 11 |
| 1994 | • Marv Cook, Chi. | 21 | 212 | 10.1 | 1 | 48.2 | 29 |
| 1996 | Andrew Jordan, Min. | 19 | 128 | 6.7 | 0 | 33.8 | 34 |
| 1996 | Paul Green, N.O. | 7 | 91 | 13.0 | 0 | 16.1 | 55 |
| 2001 | Terry Hardy, Ari. | 11 | 79 | 7.2 | 2 | 30.9 | 43 |
| 2002 | Fred Baxter, 2TM | 5 | 51 | 10.2 | 0 | 10.1 | 72 |
| 2004 | Casey Fitzsimmons, Det. | 10 | 103 | 10.3 | 0 | 20.3 | 64 |
| 2005 | Shad Meier, N.O. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2007 | Marcellus Rivers, N.E. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2007 | Steve Heiden, Cle. | 12 | 104 | 8.7 | 0 | 22.4 | 63 |
| 2010 | Reggie Kelly, Cin. | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 | 14.2 | 71 |
| 2015 | • Benjamin Watson, N.O. | 74 | 825 | 11.2 | 6 | 192.5 | 7 |
| 2022 | Geoff Swaim, Ten. | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 1 | 23.8 | 73 |
| 2024 | Zach Ertz, Was. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
In Washington, Ertz will have the opportunity to again work with Kliff Kingsbury. Ertz was a featured target around the goal line when those two worked together in 2021-22, posting top-10 numbers (per game) in both of those seasons. So I guess some sense in taking a flyer on Ertz if we’re in a 12-team league and getting down to selecting third tight ends.
But not a guy I’m expecting to draft, and I’m not sure he’ll even be starting for Washington. They’ve got him signed to a one-year deal worth $3 million, and there’s still the possibility they draft a player at the position.
—Ian Allan