With apologies to Spencer Rattler, there are six quarterbacks at play in this year’s draft. They’re interesting in that three of them have been in the college game for at least five years, with more time to hone their craft. But I’m not sure if that’s a positive or a negative.
Bo Nix and Michael Penix are on the older side. Both will be 24 on opening day, and Jayden Daniels isn’t far behind. At the other end of the scale, we’ve got J.J. McCarthy, who’s only 21.
In evaluating these guys, then, there should be some weighing of older, more experienced quarterbacks being more ready to play sooner, versus the possibility that the younger quarterbacks might have more untapped potential – they haven’t yet fully developed.
I poked around with some numbers on this. I can’t say they’re terribly revealing. Since 2000, there have been 76 quarterbacks selected with top-40 picks. Normally, I would look at just the 32-team era, but I saw 24-year-old Chad Pennington sitting there in 2000 and wanted him included. And I would typically stick with the first round, but I dipped into the first few picks of the second to pick up guys like Carr, Dalton and Kaepernick.
So we’ve got 76 guys, and they appear below in descending order by age. Oldest first. Only two are older than Nix and Penix, while only six are younger than McCarthy. (For the ages in the chart, I’m using age on about Sept. 1 of their rookie year.)
If the theory is that older quarterbacks are better situated to play well early, that’s not supported by the big-picture numbers. None of the six 24-year-olds put up top-15 numbers (using standard fantasy scoring) in their first season. Only 1 of the 27 23-year-olds did it. It’s rare for any rookie to put up top-15 numbers immediately, but the 22-year-olds had more success (5 of 25). For the 21-year-olds, they went 2 of 18, and that includes C.J. Stroud last year.
I was more interested in longer-term success, so I tagged with black dots all quarterbacks who ever had a top-10 season. That’s what we’re looking for, right? Guys who eventually become good. The chart is flawed somewhat by guys like Blake Bortles, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman somehow putting together top-10 seasons, but it’s a stab at it. (In hindsight, I should have included a black dot for each such season, but live and learn.)
Of our old guys (the 24-year-olds), only 1 of 6 ever had a top-10 season (thank you, Ryan Tannehill). For the 23-year-olds, 7 of 27 did it.
The hit rate is much better for the younger quarterbacks. Of the 22-year-olds, 15 of the 25 picked had a top-10 season at some point. And half of the 18 quarterbacks who were 21 their rookie season.
This is not an apples-to-apples comparison, of course. For the bulk of these 21- and 22-year-olds, they’re coming out because teams can see that they’re first-round type quarterbacks. With the bulk of the guys who are 23 or 24 years old, they were not viewed as first-round quarterbacks when they were 22 (otherwise they would have entered the draft).
In general, there’s some correlation that suggests that when a quarterback plays a bunch of college football, eventually becoming a good quarterback as a 23-year-old, those guys aren’t as likely to pan out in the pros. But I would hesitate to slap that tag on Nix and Penix, since they both actually put up good numbers also in the 2022 season. Penix also played impressively at Indiana but just happened to get hurt in all four of his seasons there.
| AGES OF ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Age | St | Pct | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TDR |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. | 28.9 | 15 | 57% | 3385 | 14 | 17 | 111 | 0 |
| 2007 | 40 | John Beck, Mia. | 26.0 | 4 | 56% | 559 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| 2024 | ? | Bo Nix | 24.5 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2024 | ? | Michael Penix | 24.3 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2022 | 20 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 24.2 | 12 | 63% | 2404 | 7 | 9 | 237 | 3 |
| 2023 | 33 | Will Levis, Ten. | 24.2 | 9 | 58% | 1808 | 8 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| 2000 | 18 | Chad Pennington, NYJ | 24.2 | 0 | 40% | 67 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | 8 | • Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 24.1 | 16 | 58% | 3294 | 12 | 13 | 211 | 2 |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 23.9 | 12 | 50% | 2294 | 12 | 16 | 4 | 0 |
| 2011 | 35 | • Andy Dalton, Cin. | 23.8 | 16 | 58% | 3398 | 20 | 13 | 152 | 1 |
| 2011 | 36 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 23.8 | 0 | 60% | 35 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 2020 | 1 | •• Joe Burrow, Cin. | 23.7 | 10 | 65% | 2688 | 13 | 5 | 142 | 3 |
| 2024 | ? | Jayden Daniels | 23.7 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2003 | 1 | •••• Carson Palmer, Cin. | 23.7 | 0 | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2016 | 2 | • Carson Wentz, Phil. | 23.7 | 16 | 62% | 3782 | 16 | 14 | 150 | 2 |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell, Was. | 23.7 | 0 | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2004 | 1 | •••• Eli Manning, NYG (5) | 23.7 | 7 | 48% | 1043 | 6 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| 2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 23.6 | 13 | 57% | 2819 | 14 | 16 | 108 | 2 |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 23.6 | 16 | 60% | 2971 | 14 | 12 | 180 | 2 |
| 2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey, Was. | 23.5 | 5 | 52% | 1539 | 9 | 8 | -1 | 1 |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 23.5 | 10 | 54% | 1853 | 13 | 13 | 219 | 0 |
| 2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman, Buff. | 23.5 | 0 | 60% | 32 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 23.5 | 10 | 59% | 1972 | 11 | 9 | 186 | 2 |
| 2014 | 36 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 23.4 | 16 | 58% | 3270 | 21 | 12 | 92 | 0 |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 23.4 | 13 | 64% | 3725 | 27 | 14 | 131 | 0 |
| 2006 | 11 | •• Jay Cutler, Den. | 23.3 | 5 | 59% | 1001 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart, Ari. | 23.3 | 11 | 57% | 2547 | 11 | 12 | 49 | 2 |
| 2008 | 3 | •••• Matt Ryan, Atl. (8) | 23.3 | 16 | 61% | 3440 | 16 | 11 | 104 | 1 |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young, Ten. | 23.3 | 13 | 52% | 2199 | 12 | 13 | 552 | 7 |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Ten. | 23.2 | 0 | 52% | 542 | 4 | 0 | 56 | 1 |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr, Hou. | 23.1 | 16 | 52% | 2592 | 9 | 15 | 282 | 3 |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 23.0 | 3 | 50% | 654 | 5 | 3 | 227 | 6 |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 23.0 | 12 | 59% | 2193 | 7 | 7 | 248 | 2 |
| 2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman, Chi. | 23.0 | 3 | 53% | 437 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 2007 | 36 | Kevin Kolb, Phil. | 23.0 | 0 | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| 2021 | 15 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 23.0 | 17 | 68% | 3801 | 22 | 13 | 129 | 0 |
| 2012 | 1 | •••• Andrew Luck, Ind. (5) | 23.0 | 16 | 54% | 4374 | 23 | 18 | 255 | 5 |
| 2013 | 39 | • Geno Smith, NYJ | 22.9 | 16 | 56% | 3046 | 12 | 21 | 366 | 6 |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn, Cle. | 22.8 | 0 | 38% | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 22.8 | 16 | 60% | 3512 | 18 | 15 | 63 | 1 |
| 2009 | 5 | • Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 22.8 | 15 | 54% | 2444 | 12 | 20 | 106 | 3 |
| 2024 | ? | Caleb Williams | 22.8 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2004 | 4 | •••• Philip Rivers, S.D. (10) | 22.7 | 0 | 63% | 33 | 1 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
| 2001 | 32 | •••• Drew Brees, S.D. (13) | 22.6 | 0 | 56% | 221 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| 2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 22.5 | 2 | 59% | 497 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| 2012 | 2 | • Robert Griffin, Was. | 22.5 | 15 | 66% | 3200 | 20 | 5 | 815 | 7 |
| 2020 | 5 | • Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 22.5 | 9 | 64% | 1814 | 11 | 5 | 109 | 3 |
| 2004 | 11 | •••• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. (7) | 22.5 | 13 | 66% | 2621 | 17 | 11 | 144 | 1 |
| 2021 | 11 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 22.5 | 10 | 59% | 1870 | 7 | 10 | 420 | 2 |
| 2020 | 6 | ••• Justin Herbert, LAC | 22.5 | 15 | 67% | 4336 | 31 | 10 | 234 | 5 |
| 2014 | 3 | •• Blake Bortles, Jac. | 22.3 | 13 | 59% | 2908 | 11 | 17 | 419 | 0 |
| 2019 | 15 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 22.3 | 7 | 59% | 1365 | 7 | 7 | 101 | 0 |
| 2011 | 1 | •••• Cam Newton, Car. (5) | 22.3 | 16 | 60% | 4051 | 21 | 17 | 706 | 14 |
| 2018 | 7 | •••• Josh Allen, Buff. (5) | 22.3 | 11 | 53% | 2074 | 10 | 12 | 631 | 8 |
| 2019 | 6 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 22.3 | 12 | 62% | 3027 | 24 | 12 | 279 | 2 |
| 2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 22.2 | 9 | 52% | 1260 | 7 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| 2023 | 1 | Bryce Young, Car. | 22.1 | 16 | 60% | 2877 | 11 | 10 | 253 | 0 |
| 2021 | 2 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 22.1 | 13 | 56% | 2334 | 9 | 11 | 185 | 4 |
| 2019 | 1 | •• Kyler Murray, Ari. | 22.1 | 16 | 64% | 3722 | 20 | 12 | 544 | 4 |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 22.1 | 1 | 55% | 373 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 2024 | ? | Drake Maye | 22.0 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2017 | 12 | ••• Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 22.0 | 6 | 62% | 1699 | 19 | 8 | 269 | 2 |
| 2017 | 10 | •••• Patrick Mahomes, K.C. (6) | 22.0 | 1 | 63% | 284 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| 2023 | 2 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 21.9 | 15 | 64% | 4108 | 23 | 5 | 167 | 3 |
| 2021 | 1 | •• Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 21.9 | 17 | 60% | 3641 | 12 | 17 | 334 | 2 |
| 2016 | 1 | ••• Jared Goff, LAR | 21.9 | 7 | 55% | 1089 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 1 |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 21.9 | 14 | 51% | 2214 | 12 | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 21.8 | 12 | 62% | 2818 | 19 | 10 | 252 | 2 |
| 2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 21.8 | 12 | 64% | 2919 | 14 | 12 | 209 | 1 |
| 2005 | 24 | •••• Aaron Rodgers, G.B. (11) | 21.7 | 0 | 56% | 65 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Cle. | 21.7 | 2 | 51% | 175 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| 2015 | 1 | •• Jameis Winston, T.B. | 21.6 | 16 | 58% | 4042 | 22 | 15 | 213 | 6 |
| 2009 | 17 | • Josh Freeman, T.B. | 21.6 | 9 | 54% | 1855 | 10 | 18 | 161 | 0 |
| 2018 | 32 | ••• Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 21.6 | 7 | 58% | 1201 | 6 | 3 | 695 | 5 |
| 2024 | ? | J.J. McCarthy | 21.6 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2009 | 1 | • Matthew Stafford, Det. | 21.6 | 10 | 53% | 2267 | 13 | 20 | 108 | 2 |
| 2018 | 10 | Josh Rosen, Ari. | 21.6 | 13 | 55% | 2278 | 11 | 14 | 138 | 0 |
| 2005 | 1 | • Alex Smith, S.F. | 21.3 | 7 | 51% | 875 | 1 | 11 | 103 | 0 |
| 2021 | 3 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 21.3 | 2 | 58% | 603 | 5 | 2 | 168 | 1 |
| 2023 | 4 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 21.3 | 4 | 60% | 577 | 3 | 1 | 136 | 4 |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 21.2 | 13 | 58% | 2865 | 17 | 15 | 138 | 1 |
| 2001 | 1 | •••• Michael Vick, Atl. | 21.2 | 2 | 44% | 785 | 2 | 3 | 289 | 1 |
| 2021 | 26 | • Jordan Love, G.B. | 21.1 | 0 | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
—Ian Allan