In general, it's not considered a strong incoming rookie class at tight end. Last year there were six selected in the first two rounds, and that's not happening. But the earliest was Dalton Kincaid at 25th overall, and Georgia's Brock Bowers will go much earlier than that.
Bowers was a beast in three seasons at Georgia, averaging 58 catches for 846 yards and 10 touchdowns. He won the John Mackey Award as college's top tight end the last two seasons (the first time that's ever happened). He didn't work out at the combine, recovering from injury; he had an ankle injury late last season and there may have been a hamstring issue as well. But the athleticism is unquestioned. Reports have him not getting past the Jets at 10th overall, and I could see him going as early as 5th to the Chargers (and being their top receiver at the position immediately). Even the Giants, at 6th overall, can't be ruled out.
The Jets got burned the last time they took a tight end in the top 10 picks. Kyle Brady, drafted in 1995, never averaged even 2 catches per game in four seasons, with both of his top 10 seasons (PPR scoring) coming after he'd moved on to the Jaguars. Since that time, every tight end selected in the top 10 has turned out pretty well. (Although we can still say a couple have not quite been as good as hoped for, as of yet.)
Since Brady, there have been six tight ends selected with top 10 picks. Five of those players have had at least one top-6 fantasy season. (The sixth, Rickey Dudley, selected one year after Brady, had a top-13 season.) Three of them had multiple top-6 seasons, and Kyle Pitts will probably join that group at some point, assuming Atlanta's new offensive coaching staff decides to utilize him more than Arthur Smith did.
Table shows all the top-15 seasons from those seven TEs (including Brady) drafted in the top 10 in the past 30 years. Pitts (so far) and I think Ebron have both been slightly disappointing. But a pretty high floor for tight ends selected that early.
| TES SELECTED IN THE TOP 10, 1995-PRESENT (TOP-15 SEASONS) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Rk |
| 8 | 2022 | T.J. Hockenson, Det.-Min. | 129 | 86 | 914 | 10.6 | 6 | 2 |
| 6 | 2010 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 93 | 56 | 914 | 16.3 | 7 | 2 |
| 6 | 2009 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 128 | 78 | 965 | 12.4 | 13 | 2 |
| 8 | 2020 | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 101 | 67 | 723 | 10.8 | 6 | 3 |
| 6 | 2006 | Kellen Winslow, Cle. | 120 | 89 | 875 | 9.8 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | 2023 | T.J. Hockenson, Min. | 127 | 95 | 960 | 10.1 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | 2018 | Eric Ebron, Ind. | 110 | 66 | 750 | 11.4 | 14 | 4 |
| 6 | 2013 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 84 | 52 | 850 | 16.4 | 13 | 4 |
| 6 | 2007 | Kellen Winslow, Cle. | 148 | 82 | 1106 | 13.5 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | 2021 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 110 | 68 | 1026 | 15.1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | 2000 | Kyle Brady, Jac. | 94 | 64 | 729 | 11.4 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | 2010 | Kellen Winslow, T.B. | 98 | 66 | 730 | 11.1 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | 2009 | Kellen Winslow, T.B. | 127 | 77 | 884 | 11.5 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | 2011 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 95 | 67 | 792 | 11.8 | 6 | 8 |
| 9 | 2002 | Kyle Brady, Jac. | 67 | 43 | 461 | 10.7 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | 2007 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 85 | 52 | 509 | 9.8 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | 2011 | Kellen Winslow, T.B. | 123 | 75 | 763 | 10.2 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | 2023 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 90 | 53 | 667 | 12.6 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | 2020 | Eric Ebron, Pitt. | 91 | 56 | 558 | 10.0 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | 2017 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 86 | 53 | 574 | 10.8 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | 2015 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 70 | 47 | 537 | 11.4 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | 2000 | Rickey Dudley, Oak. | 49 | 29 | 350 | 12.1 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | 2016 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 85 | 61 | 711 | 11.7 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | 2021 | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 84 | 61 | 583 | 9.6 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | 2017 | Vernon Davis, Was. | 69 | 43 | 648 | 15.1 | 3 | 15 |
I have only good things to say about Bowers, who looks like he'll a top receiver at the position pretty quickly wherever he ends up. Georgia used him both as a receiver and a runner around the goal line (5 rushing touchdowns); he's athletic after the catch and will break some tackles. Fair to question if he'll play full-time as a blocker, but the effort is there. He measured 6-foot-3 and 243 pounds at the combine, which is a little smaller than the traditional ideal, or was until Sam LaPorta had nearly identical measurements (6-3, 245) last year. Other recent 6-foot-3 tight ends (5-10 pounds lighter) include Evan Engram and Gerald Everett; heavier ones include Jonnu Smith and Dwayne Allen. Nothing wrong with Bowers' measurements.
I hope Bowers doesn't to the Jets, with Aaron Rodgers not having a great history of producing big-time tight ends, although whatever; Jermichael Finley and Robert Tonyan had their moments, and Rodgers won't be playing in New York very long. The receiver-poor Chargers would be interesting. Wherever he ends up, I think he should be a top-5 or 6 pick in rookie drafts. Not that Sam LaPorta level seasons come along all the time, but he looks like a good one.
NOTE: During tomorrow’s first round, I’ll post live reactions to each pick in a post on our main page, updating after each selection is made. Will start posting around 8 p.m. Eastern. Reader comments welcome — encouraged, in fact.
--Andy Richardson