Yesterday was the deadline for picking up or not picking up fifth-year options on players drafted in the first round back in 2021. There haven't been many surprises, and Pittsburgh's decision not to commit to a fifth year for unremarkable Najee Harris makes sense. But in the fantasy realm, I think he's pretty underrated.
If we're looking at yards per carry, the fairly modest performance of Harris is clear. Over the past three seasons, he's averaged 3.9 yards per attempt, which is nothing to get excited about. Last year he was at 4.1, which was more than a yard worse than backfield mate Jaylen Warren (5.3). Those with Warren, and perhaps Steelers fans, wish the Steelers would give Warren a lot more work, and will be happy if Pittsburgh lets Harris go after the season.
But showing up counts for something, right? Harris has started all 17 games for Pittsburgh three years in a row. He's laboring in an offense that's struggled at quarterback and has also seen its offensive line deteriorate from what it once was. But Harris has gone out and between rushing production and his work in the passing game, finished 3rd, 14th and 23rd at running back in fantasy leagues (PPR). He's one of just eight running backs to finish in the top 25 at the position in each of the last three seasons.
| RUNNING BACKS IN THE TOP 25, 2021-2023 (ALL THREE SEASONS) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Run | Avg | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2022 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 204 | 915 | 4.5 | 107 | 722 | 18 | 378.7 | 1 |
| 2021 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 206 | 911 | 4.4 | 70 | 647 | 20 | 349.8 | 2 |
| 2022 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 349 | 1538 | 4.4 | 33 | 398 | 13 | 308.8 | 4 |
| 2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 307 | 1200 | 3.9 | 74 | 467 | 10 | 300.7 | 3 |
| 2021 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 292 | 1205 | 4.1 | 42 | 314 | 16 | 289.9 | 4 |
| 2023 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 257 | 1034 | 4.0 | 52 | 376 | 12 | 267.0 | 6 |
| 2021 | James Conner, Ari. | 202 | 752 | 3.7 | 37 | 375 | 18 | 257.7 | 5 |
| 2023 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 280 | 1167 | 4.2 | 28 | 214 | 12 | 246.8 | 9 |
| 2022 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 210 | 814 | 3.9 | 60 | 441 | 9 | 239.5 | 11 |
| 2021 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 240 | 898 | 3.7 | 47 | 439 | 9 | 234.7 | 9 |
| 2023 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 180 | 694 | 3.9 | 75 | 466 | 6 | 233.0 | 12 |
| 2022 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 272 | 1034 | 3.8 | 41 | 229 | 10 | 227.5 | 14 |
| 2022 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 223 | 897 | 4.0 | 57 | 490 | 4 | 219.7 | 16 |
| 2021 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 151 | 617 | 4.1 | 62 | 452 | 7 | 210.9 | 15 |
| 2023 | David Montgomery, Det. | 219 | 1015 | 4.6 | 16 | 117 | 13 | 209.2 | 17 |
| 2022 | James Conner, Ari. | 183 | 782 | 4.3 | 46 | 300 | 8 | 202.2 | 19 |
| 2023 | James Conner, Ari. | 208 | 1040 | 5.0 | 27 | 165 | 9 | 201.5 | 19 |
| 2023 | D'Andre Swift, Phil. | 229 | 1049 | 4.6 | 39 | 214 | 6 | 201.3 | 20 |
| 2021 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 225 | 849 | 3.8 | 42 | 301 | 7 | 199.0 | 19 |
| 2023 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 255 | 1035 | 4.1 | 29 | 170 | 8 | 197.5 | 23 |
| 2023 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 179 | 628 | 3.5 | 51 | 436 | 6 | 193.4 | 24 |
| 2021 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 219 | 937 | 4.3 | 18 | 154 | 10 | 193.4 | 22 |
| 2022 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 99 | 542 | 5.5 | 48 | 389 | 8 | 191.1 | 21 |
| 2022 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 201 | 801 | 4.0 | 34 | 316 | 6 | 181.7 | 24 |
Harris has trended downward over his three seasons (especially as a receiver, going from 74 to 41 to 29 receptions) and perhaps another dip is coming up. Warren may get more work, and the Steelers have also added Cordarrelle Patterson, who new coordinator Arthur Smith could work into the rotation (unlikely, but possible). I think plenty of people will let Harris slide in drafts and select Warren instead.
But in general, I'm not sure the backfield will be dramatically different. Harris (who's averaged 9 touchdowns his first three seasons) will probably be the main runner near the goal line. His odds of staying healthy look a little better than Warren's. And the passing game should be better with Russell Wilson than it was with Pickett/Trubisky/Rudolph, which might open things up for the ground game. (Wilson also likes dumping the ball off to his running backs, so Harris' receptions might be up from last year.) And the Steelers used their top two draft picks on tackle Troy Fautanu and center Zach Frazier, so the offensive line should be better.
There's risk involved, but I imagine I'll settle for Harris as a starter in some fantasy leagues. Maybe in his final year with the Steelers, but it could be better than some are expecting. The offense hasn't moved on from him just yet.
--Andy Richardson