Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff have both received contracts averaging at least $53 million, making the Tua Tagovailoa situation interesting. Entering the final year of his contract, he’s looking for an extension, and he’s arguably been better than either of those guys.
The quarterbacking market in general has been blowing up. Six quarterbacks now have contracts averaging at least $50 million, and that doesn’t include Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. They’re both among the eight others averaging at least $40 million.
Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson have existing deals averaging $46 million, while Kirk Cousins signed with Atlanta for an average of $45 million. Tagovailoa likely will want to come in at least a step ahead of those deals.
As things stand now, 21 quarterbacks have contracts that average at least $10 million per season (according to numbers at OverTheCap.com). That includes six who signed in the current offseason.
| QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING SEVEN FIGURES | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Average |
| Joe Burrow | Cin. | $55,000,000 |
| • Trevor Lawrence | Jac. | $55,000,000 |
| • Jared Goff | Det. | $53,000,000 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | $52,500,000 |
| Lamar Jackson | Balt. | $52,000,000 |
| Jalen Hurts | Phil. | $51,000,000 |
| Kyler Murray | Ariz. | $46,100,000 |
| Deshaun Watson | Clev. | $46,000,000 |
| Patrick Mahomes | K.C. | $45,000,000 |
| • Kirk Cousins | Atl. | $45,000,000 |
| Josh Allen | Buff. | $43,000,000 |
| Dak Prescott | Dall. | $40,000,000 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | $40,000,000 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | $40,000,000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | $37,500,000 |
| Derek Carr | N.O. | $37,500,000 |
| • Baker Mayfield | T.B. | $33,333,333 |
| Geno Smith | Sea. | $25,000,000 |
| Jordan Love | G.B. | $13,500,000 |
| • Gardner Minshew | L.V. | $12,500,000 |
| • Sam Darnold | Min. | $10,000,000 |
Tagovailoa can argue that he’s put up good enough numbers to merit a top-5 contract. He’s gone 19-11 as a starter the last two years, with a passer rating of 102.9. Over the last two seasons, only Brock Purdy has a higher passer rating.
| QUARTERBACK PASSER RATING (last 2 seasons) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | W-L | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | Rate |
| Brock Purdy | 17-4 | 68.7% | 5,654 | 44 | 15 | 111.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 19-11 | 67.4% | 8,172 | 54 | 22 | 102.9 |
| Dak Prescott | 20-9 | 68.2% | 7,376 | 59 | 24 | 100.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 24-9 | 67.1% | 9,433 | 68 | 26 | 99.1 |
| Jared Goff | 21-13 | 66.2% | 9,013 | 59 | 19 | 98.6 |
| Lamar Jackson | 21-7 | 65.1% | 5,920 | 41 | 14 | 97.9 |
| Joe Burrow | 17-9 | 67.8% | 6,784 | 50 | 18 | 97.1 |
| Geno Smith | 17-15 | 67.4% | 7,906 | 50 | 20 | 96.8 |
| Jordan Love | 9-8 | 64.3% | 4,354 | 33 | 11 | 96.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | 17-8 | 67.1% | 6,878 | 47 | 19 | 96.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 25-7 | 65.9% | 7,559 | 45 | 21 | 94.8 |
| Josh Allen | 24-9 | 64.9% | 8,589 | 64 | 32 | 94.4 |
| Justin Herbert | 15-15 | 67.0% | 7,873 | 45 | 17 | 93.2 |
| Derek Carr | 15-17 | 64.8% | 7,400 | 49 | 22 | 92.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 17-16 | 65.9% | 8,129 | 46 | 22 | 91.9 |
| Russell Wilson | 11-19 | 63.3% | 6,594 | 42 | 19 | 90.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 9-9 | 64.5% | 3,695 | 26 | 12 | 90.9 |
| Tom Brady | 8-9 | 66.8% | 4,694 | 25 | 9 | 90.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | 12-12 | 64.6% | 6,052 | 34 | 19 | 90.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | 11-16 | 62.7% | 6,207 | 38 | 18 | 88.8 |
| Kyler Murray | 6-13 | 66.1% | 4,167 | 24 | 12 | 88.1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 9-11 | 65.0% | 4,152 | 17 | 13 | 87.9 |
| Daniel Jones | 10-11 | 67.2% | 4,114 | 17 | 11 | 87.0 |
| Justin Fields | 8-20 | 60.9% | 4,804 | 33 | 20 | 85.8 |
| Desmond Ridder | 8-9 | 64.0% | 3,544 | 14 | 12 | 84.1 |
| Mac Jones | 8-17 | 65.1% | 5,117 | 24 | 23 | 81.4 |
| Sam Howell | 5-13 | 63.2% | 4,115 | 22 | 22 | 79.0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 14-10-1 | 62.6% | 4,474 | 13 | 13 | 78.8 |
| Zach Wilson | 9-11 | 57.9% | 3,959 | 14 | 14 | 75.4 |
It puts the Dolphins in a tricky spot. While Tagovailoa has been productive, he also comes with limitations. He’s small, and with limited mobility and a lesser arm. With him, the ball needs to come out quickly, and he’s tended to struggle when forced to work out of a muddied pocket. He went 10-1 last year against non-playoff teams, but just 1-6 against teams that made the postseason. He may be more of a “good” quarterback rather than a guy who’ll ever get them to a Super Bowl.
And durability, I think, is still a major red flag. While Tagovailoa played in all 18 of Miami’s games last year, he’s been plagued by injuries previously, including multiple concussions. I remember him getting thrown down like a rag doll in that Thursday night game at Cincinnati. No doubt the Dolphins will want to structure a deal that avoids them possibly being left on the hook for a bunch of guaranteed money for an injured player.
I’m not a big Tagovailoa fan myself. If NFL teams were starting from scratch, I don’t think there’s any team that would have him among their top dozen players at the position.
Other quarterbacks entering the final seasons of their contracts: Dak Prescott, Jordan Love.
—Ian Allan