Bryce Young had a disappointing rookie season, but it’s too early to assume he’s just another Zach Wilson. I would think there’s a decent chance he turns into a serviceable second quarterback this year (for fantasy purposes).
Granted, he was awful last year, averaging only 180 passing yards in his 16 games, and with only 11 touchdowns. His size will always be an issue. He’s listed at 5-foot-10 and 204 pounds, and he actually looks smaller. Among regular starters last year, he ranked last in passer rating, yards-per-attempt and winning percentage, and next-to-last in completion percentage (thank you, Will Levis). And rather than getting better, he actually got WORSE in the second half of the season.
But it’s not unusual for rookie quarterbacks to struggle, and a good number of those guys end up turning things around. In the 32-team era, 14 other quarterbacks selected with top-5 overall picks have finished with bottom-10 stats in their first season (and by “bottom-10”, I’ll use bottom-10 per-game production among quarterbacks who started at least half the time, removing the dynamic of some serviceable quarterbacks simply missing some games). Of those 14 previous struggling quarterbacks, six finished with top-11 per-game numbers in their second season.
| TOP-5 PICKS WITH BOTTOM-10 STATS (their next year) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2003 | David Carr, Hou. | 11 | 181 | .82 | 11 | .18 | 14.5 | 26 |
| 2003 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 16 | 180 | 1.06 | 5 | .00 | 14.0 | 27 |
| 2005 | • Eli Manning, NYG | 16 | 235 | 1.50 | 5 | .06 | 18.8 | 6 |
| 2006 | Alex Smith, S.F. | 16 | 181 | 1.00 | 9 | .13 | 14.7 | 25 |
| 2010 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 16 | 206 | 1.06 | 7 | .19 | 16.4 | 23 |
| 2011 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 10 | 216 | .60 | 3 | .00 | 13.5 | 32 |
| 2015 | • Blake Bortles, Jac. | 16 | 277 | 2.19 | 19 | .13 | 25.4 | 2 |
| 2017 | • Carson Wentz, Phil. | 13 | 254 | 2.54 | 23 | .00 | 25.7 | 2 |
| 2017 | • Jared Goff, LAR | 15 | 254 | 1.87 | 3 | .07 | 20.9 | 11 |
| 2018 | • Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 14 | 230 | 1.71 | 30 | .21 | 23.2 | 10 |
| 2019 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 233 | 1.46 | 5 | .15 | 19.3 | 26 |
| 2021 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 12 | 208 | 1.33 | 11 | .17 | 17.8 | 22 |
| 2022 | • Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 242 | 1.47 | 17 | .29 | 21.8 | 11 |
| 2022 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 9 | 188 | .67 | 11 | .11 | 13.8 | 31 |
| 2024 | Bryce Young, Car. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
While a move up into the top dozen at his position looks unlikely, a move into the top 20 seems reasonable. Carolina has a new offense, with Dave Canales drawing up the plays. He had a lot of success with another struggling, undersized former No. 1 pick last year (Baker Mayfield). The Panthers have also pumped some resources into the roster, investing heavily in a new pair of guards (Robert Hunt, Damien Lewis), as well as adding receivers Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette.
I won’t talk up Young too much (I don’t expect to draft him), but makes sense for some team in a 12-team league to select him as their second quarterback. If we’re in a league where some teams are rostering third quarterbacks, Young definitely will be selected.
—Ian Allan