I have some interest in Khalil Shakir. He was effective with his limited opportunities last year, and the Bills are re-working their receiving corps. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone, so they’ll have a new top guy this year.
Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman look like the other top candidates. Samuel had some previous success with the Panthers and Commanders and is their highest-priced player at the position. They selected Coleman with the first pick of the second round after trading down a couple of times. (Wide receivers were selected with both of the picks the Bills traded – Xavier Worthy going 28th and Xavier Legette 32nd.)
I see Shakir as comparable to those guys. He’s not as heralded (he entered the league as a fifth-round choice and hasn’t actually played all that much), but he’s been around for two years, and he’s shown some ability to work effectively with Josh Allen.
I remember Shakir playing well in the postseason as a rookie, catching 5 passes for 91 yards. And he was shockingly efficient last year. He had only 45 passes thrown his way, but he caught 39 of them. He some really impressive after-the-catch work, including on a touchdown against Pittsburgh in the playoffs.
In the last 31 years, only 20 wide receivers with at least 40 targets have averaged over 12 yards per pass target (not yards per catch, but yards per play – including incompletions), and Shakir is in that group.
WIDE RECEIVERS AVERAGING 12 YARDS PER TARGET | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | YPT | TD |
2008 | Devery Henderson, N.O. | 56 | 32 | 793 | 14.2 | 3 |
2006 | Devery Henderson, N.O. | 54 | 32 | 745 | 13.8 | 5 |
2018 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 70 | 57 | 965 | 13.8 | 10 |
2023 | Khalil Shakir, Buff. | 45 | 39 | 611 | 13.6 | 2 |
1999 | Tim Dwight, Atl. | 50 | 32 | 669 | 13.4 | 7 |
2011 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 96 | 68 | 1263 | 13.2 | 15 |
2019 | Mecole Hardman, K.C. | 41 | 26 | 538 | 13.1 | 6 |
2010 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 98 | 60 | 1257 | 12.8 | 10 |
2013 | Kenny Stills, N.O. | 50 | 32 | 641 | 12.8 | 5 |
2023 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 105 | 75 | 1342 | 12.8 | 7 |
1993 | John Taylor, S.F. | 74 | 56 | 940 | 12.7 | 5 |
2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 84 | 52 | 1051 | 12.5 | 8 |
2014 | DeSean Jackson, Was. | 95 | 56 | 1169 | 12.3 | 6 |
2018 | Robert Foster, Buff. | 44 | 27 | 541 | 12.3 | 3 |
2010 | Patrick Crayton, S.D. | 42 | 28 | 514 | 12.2 | 1 |
2011 | Malcom Floyd, S.D. | 70 | 43 | 856 | 12.2 | 5 |
1999 | Az-Zahir Hakim, St.L. | 56 | 36 | 677 | 12.1 | 8 |
2019 | Stefon Diggs, Min. | 94 | 63 | 1130 | 12.0 | 6 |
2002 | Dennis Northcutt, Cle. | 50 | 38 | 601 | 12.0 | 5 |
2001 | Brian Finneran, Atl. | 41 | 23 | 491 | 12.0 | 3 |
At the same time, it’s also reasonable to tap the brakes a bit. Of those previous receivers, 11 were guys who looked similar to Shakir (lightly-used players looking to maybe take the step up from useful contributor to reliable performer), and exactly none of those guys actually made that key step. Of the 11 who didn’t rank in the top 30 in overall production (using PPR scoring), none moved up into the top 30 the next year.
Five of those 11 at least finished between 33rd and 39th in PPR production at the position, making them worth rostering in typical fantasy leagues. That makes it seem reasonable to slot Shakir in the top 50 among wide receivers in drafts.
POSSIBLE BREAKOUT RECEIVERS (the next yr) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | YPT | TD | PPR | Rk |
2000 | Az-Zahir Hakim, St.L. | 81 | 53 | 734 | 9.1 | 4 | 158.3 | 37 |
2000 | Tim Dwight, Atl. | 53 | 26 | 406 | 7.7 | 3 | 91.4 | 67 |
2002 | Brian Finneran, Atl. | 102 | 56 | 838 | 8.2 | 6 | 175.8 | 33 |
2003 | Dennis Northcutt, Cle. | 93 | 62 | 729 | 7.8 | 2 | 155.2 | 38 |
2007 | Devery Henderson, N.O. | 43 | 20 | 409 | 9.5 | 3 | 80.9 | 81 |
2009 | Devery Henderson, N.O. | 83 | 51 | 804 | 9.7 | 2 | 144.7 | 43 |
2011 | Patrick Crayton, S.D. | 34 | 23 | 248 | 7.3 | 1 | 85.4 | 81 |
2012 | Malcom Floyd, S.D. | 85 | 56 | 814 | 9.6 | 5 | 167.4 | 38 |
2014 | Kenny Stills, N.O. | 83 | 63 | 931 | 11.2 | 3 | 173.9 | 39 |
2019 | Robert Foster, Buff. | 18 | 3 | 64 | 3.6 | 0 | 12.3 | 161 |
2020 | Mecole Hardman, K.C. | 62 | 41 | 560 | 9.0 | 4 | 132.1 | 60 |
2024 | Khalil Shakir, Buff. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan