I have some interest in Cincinnati's third-round rookie Jermaine Burton. A lot of teams seem to have a glut of wide receivers competing for top-3 roles. The Bengals don't, and might be willing to give a talented youngster significant snaps.
The Bengals still have Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but Chase wants a new contract and Higgins is going to be playing on the franchise tag, probably not happy about it. Tyler Boyd is in Tennessee.
Even assuming things eventually work out with Chase, Burton has been getting plenty of reps all offseason, and that should continue throughout the summer. He's at least vying for the No. 3 role, with Trent Irwin or some other youngster (Charlie Jones, Andrei Iosivas) the competition. Selected earlier than those players, he'll get every opportunity to emerge, although he may be viewed as more of a replacement for Higgins a year from now than a third receiver in the offense.
Burton didn't put up huge numbers in college; not in two years at Georgia, or the last two at Alabama. He caught just 39-40 passes each of his Alabama years. But he did plenty with those 39 receptions last season, turning them into 798 yards and 8 TDs. That's 20.5 yards per catch.
Over the last 20 years, there have been 33 other wide receivers to average at least 19.5 yards per catch in their final year of college, then go on to be drafted in the first three rounds. (I dropped it to 19.5 to get in another Alabama product, Jameson Williams.) The hit rate on those players looks pretty good.
Twelve of the 33 have had at least one top-12 season (PPR scoring). Four more have at least ranked in the top 20. Sort of looks like a metric the Bengals value on draft day, since two of the previous hits are Chase and Higgins.
| COLLEGE WRS AVERAGING 19.5 YARDS PER CATCH (RD 1-3), BEST NFL, 2004- | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Rd | Player | College | Avg | Best | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2005 | 1 | Roddy White, Atl. | 71-1452-14 | 20.5 | 2010 | 115 | 1389 | 10 | 1 |
| 2010 | 1 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 46-1154-8 | 25.1 | 2013 | 92 | 1430 | 14 | 1 |
| 2020 | 1 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 62-1327-15 | 21.4 | 2023 | 135 | 1749 | 14 | 1 |
| 2014 | 1 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 69-1394-12 | 20.2 | 2016 | 96 | 1321 | 12 | 3 |
| 2014 | 1 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 59-1152-9 | 19.5 | 2016 | 101 | 1367 | 10 | 4 |
| 2021 | 1 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 84-1780-20 | 21.2 | 2021 | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 5 |
| 2019 | 2 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 26-569-5 | 21.9 | 2020 | 83 | 1303 | 10 | 7 |
| 2004 | 1 | Lee Evans, Buff. | 75-1545-9 | 20.6 | 2006 | 82 | 1292 | 8 | 8 |
| 2021 | 1 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 28-591-4 | 21.1 | 2022 | 75 | 1356 | 8 | 8 |
| 2009 | 3 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 39-784-7 | 20.1 | 2011 | 72 | 1193 | 8 | 9 |
| 2015 | 1 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 43-855-5 | 19.9 | 2019 | 72 | 1202 | 9 | 11 |
| 2021 | 3 | Nico Collins, Hou. | 37-729-7 | 19.7 | 2023 | 80 | 1297 | 8 | 12 |
| 2019 | 3 | Terry McLaurin, Wash. | 35-701-11 | 20.0 | 2022 | 77 | 1191 | 5 | 16 |
| 2018 | 2 | DJ Chark, Jac. | 40-874-4 | 21.9 | 2019 | 73 | 1008 | 8 | 18 |
| 2020 | 2 | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 59-1167-14 | 19.8 | 2022 | 74 | 1029 | 7 | 19 |
| 2014 | 3 | John Brown, Ariz. | 61-1198-17 | 19.6 | 2019 | 72 | 1060 | 6 | 20 |
| 2022 | 2 | George Pickens, Pitt. | 5-107-0 | 21.4 | 2023 | 63 | 1140 | 5 | 30 |
| 2016 | 1 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 62-1258-14 | 20.3 | 2020 | 53 | 879 | 8 | 32 |
| 2015 | 1 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 50-1044-9 | 20.9 | 2019 | 36 | 645 | 6 | 51 |
| 2018 | 2 | James Washington, Pitt. | 74-1549-14 | 20.9 | 2019 | 44 | 735 | 3 | 52 |
| 2009 | 3 | Brandon Tate, N.E. | 16-376-3 | 23.5 | 2010 | 24 | 432 | 5 | 71 |
| 2015 | 1 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 36-871-10 | 24.2 | 2019 | 29 | 397 | 5 | 71 |
| 2018 | 3 | Tre'Quan Smith, N.O. | 59-1171-14 | 19.8 | 2020 | 34 | 448 | 4 | 72 |
| 2005 | 2 | Mark Bradley, Chi. | 23-491-7 | 21.3 | 2008 | 30 | 380 | 3 | 74 |
| 2011 | 3 | Vincent Brown, S.D. | 69-1352-10 | 19.6 | 2013 | 41 | 472 | 1 | 78 |
| 2022 | 1 | Jameson Williams, Det. | 79-1572-17 | 19.9 | 2023 | 24 | 354 | 3 | 82 |
| 2023 | 2 | Marvin Mims, Den. | 54-1083-6 | 20.1 | 2023 | 22 | 377 | 2 | 86 |
| 2015 | 3 | Sammie Coates, Pitt. | 34-741-4 | 21.8 | 2016 | 21 | 435 | 2 | 93 |
| 2012 | 2 | Stephen Hill, NYJ | 28-820-5 | 29.3 | 2012 | 21 | 252 | 3 | 97 |
| 2021 | 3 | Dyami Brown, Wash. | 55-1099-8 | 20.0 | 2022 | 5 | 143 | 2 | 133 |
| 2015 | 2 | Devin Smith, NYJ | 33-931-12 | 28.2 | 2015 | 9 | 115 | 1 | 142 |
| 2021 | 2 | Dee Eskridge, Sea. | 33-768-9 | 23.3 | 2021 | 10 | 64 | 1 | 146 |
| 2016 | 3 | Leonte Carroo, Mia. | 39-809-10 | 20.7 | 2018 | 2 | 94 | 1 | 158 |
Table is sorted by best finish in PPR leagues; the bottom of the table shows plenty of guys who washed out quickly. Not a given that Burton will be one of the hits. But I like the hit rate on previous wideouts who fared well in that regard in college, and I like the opportunity he'll potentially have to be a top-3 option in Cincinnati.
--Andy Richardson