After last week's hit list of guys I'm ducking at their going rates, I thought I'd disclose a few fantasy fellows I find myself fond of for this fall (alliteration!).
It's hard to 'jump' ADP (i.e. take a guy a few picks ahead of where you know he's generally going in drafts currently) in the first couple of rounds of drafts. Even if you don't love A.J. Brown at the current price because you read some guy throw some percentages around, are you really going to take Garrett Wilson or Jonathan Taylor instead? That's a fairly spicy meatball.
But there does start to be some daylight between where guys are going currently and where I think they ultimately finish fairly early on. Here are some guys I'll cut in line for in the early going in 2024.
Davante Adams
Current ADP: 18.0, WR11
Adams is the poster child for rock-solid safety in the second round and a must-get in full PPR leagues at this price. Adams remains the unquestioned target share king of fantasy football, commanding either the largest or second-largest share of his team's pass attempts in the league in three of the last four years (only Cooper Kupp's legendary 2021 broke his streak). Adams' target chokehold reached new heights with the arrival of Antonio Pierce: he pushed from an already elite 30.4% of the Raiders' pass attempts last year prior to McDaniels' dismissal to an unheard of 35.4% under Pierce. Adams did post an uncharacteristically low 10.8 yards per catch over this time but that's the price of being force fed these days, and can partially be traced back to some especially bad quarterback play on deep shots.
Adams was a top 3 wide receiver in four of the previous five seasons before slipping last year. At this price you can safely bet on the future first ballot Hall of Famer to beat his 2023 numbers.
Derrick Henry
Current ADP: 25.9, RB10
Gus Edwards is a ruddy six-foot, 235-pound battering ram with no passing game chops or breakaway speed. The Baltimore offense nevertheless took the useful-but-one dimensional Edwards and turned him into fantasy's RB8 over a week 7-17 stretch that saw him pour in 12 rushing TDs over those nine games. Enter Derrick Henry, who is still an elite force near the stripe, and it's easy to get very excited very quickly - particularly when he's somehow going later than Travis Etienne and De'Von Achane in some mock drafts right now.
While the Ravens figure to have one of the league's better offenses again in 2024, Lamar Jackson doesn't run for many touchdowns these days, he doesn't really throw for that many either - Derrick Henry in Baltimore is just a match made in heaven. The only real concern is the Ravens' free agency losses on the offensive line, but Henry's overcome offensive line issues plenty before. King Henry can give us one more top 5 finish.
Josh Jacobs
Current ADP: 26.5, RB11
Jacobs is going handily behind Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley right now and I'm not really sure why that is. Taylor boasts total control of a backfield for an offense that could be very productive, and Barkley is being installed as the centerpiece of one that we know is somewhere between very good and elite. But Jacobs has been a backfield dominator for a while now, processing over 30% of the Raiders' total offense in his games over the last two seasons, and unlike Taylor and Barkley he doesn't have to worry about his redzone touchdowns being vultured by his quarterback. The Packers offense turned into a juggernaut after week 9 last year, churning out 386.4 yards of total offense a game from that point on; thirty percent of that would be over 115 yards a game.
There has been some hand-wringing over impressive rookie MarShawn Lloyd and a possible platoon here. Lloyd is a minor concern in 2024, but I just do not buy that the Packers gave Jacobs a contract for $12m in AAV to put him in a tag team with a third rounder. Jacobs should maintain near total control here.
Michael Pittman
Current ADP: 39.5, WR21
I just feel like Pittman is being taken pretty close to his floor here. Pittman's the unquestioned top dop in this passing game after receiving a (curiously tame) 3-yr/$70m contract extension in March, and finally has a QB in Anthony Richardson with the kind of fastball that could easily help Pittman eclipse his career high mark of 6 TDs. Pittman was eighth in the NFL in target share last year, and yet of the top 10 receivers in 2023 target share Pittman is going on average at least 5-6 picks later than any of them - with a QB upgrade.
DK Metcalf
Current ADP: 41.6, WR23
With the Seahawks believed to be getting a little pass happy in 2024 and the new coaching staff raving about Metcalf his ADP was never gonna stay outside the top 50 for long, and predictably his price tag has revised up in the last week or so. I don't think it will go much higher though, and at this price I still love Metcalf: he is one of the game's elite touchdown converters, and the Seahawks are clearly determined to get him the football more than ever before. New HC Mike Macdonald is pledging that the Seahawks will still run the ball plenty, but new OC Ryan Grubb's offense at the neighboring University of Washington last year put the ball in the air more than did any NFL team; I don't think that tiger changes its stripes overnight.
I think we're looking at a '2022 AJ Brown' type of blow-up season here for Metcalf, who really hasn't put it all together yet with only one top-10 finish to his name so far, way back in 2020. The main question here for me is whether the offensive line can hold up to the amount of pass volume output to which this new-look Seahawks team aspires.
7/15 Update: Metcalf's ADP continued to rise over the weekend, climbing from 44.9 a few days ago to this 41.6 number today. It's unfortunate, but the WRs he's moving toward (Devonta Smith, Malik Nabers) I still consider significantly less appealing options at the price.
George Pickens
Current ADP: 56.6, WR28
If Metcalf is my favorite WR value in this part of the board right now, a close second is George Pickens. It was brief, but Pickens' two-week explosion to close out 2023 I believe finally showed the Steelers that they have to cut the malarky and get this guy the football, and perhaps the driving force behind GM Omar Khan deciding to send away the very capable Diontae Johnson just before the open of free agency.
Pickens is already one of the best man coverage throttlers in the league and one that corners live in fear of being posterized by, and the targets vacated by the Steelers shipping Johnson to Carolina should not be underestimated, even with the selection of promising rookie replacement Roman Wilson. Taking in the changes in personnel and offensive philosophy surrounding him heading into 2024, my official position is 'Pickens year 3 go boom' - as long as the Russell Wilson experiment doesn't backfire.
Rashee Rice
Current ADP: 81.7, WR39
I get why Rice's ADP is suppressed right now, as the Chiefs absolutely may have chosen to use their first-round pick on a wide receiver in April in direct response to Rice's recent off-field issues. As a result, new arrival Marquise "Hollywood" Brown is currently running ahead of Rice on draft boards; approximately four spots ahead of him on Sleeper (the ADP source being referenced here), but further ahead on others. I get being wary of a possible suspension for Rice, but I think it's worth remembering that the Chiefs signed Hollywood Brown two weeks before Rice's legal troubles began on March 30th - that move wasn't made in response to Rice's availability question marks because they didn't exist yet. The addition of the uber-speedy Worthy isn't great news for Rice, but I'd contend that his skillset and potential usage overlap more with Brown's than with Rice's - possibly a lot more.
Add in the fact that there's an increasingly good chance Rice's attorneys finagle his day in court out to 2025 (or later; keep in mind Alvin Kamara's recent legal troubles didn't result in a suspension being handed down until 18 months after the fact and the NFL policy is to let the legal process play out before issuing any discipline) and Rice is shaping up to be a potentially major value in drafts this year.