Father Time is undefeated, and with that in mind, I think we need to be careful when selecting guys like Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Lockett. All will be 32 at the end of the season, and it’s rare to see big numbers out of players at that age.
Only one active receiver has put up relevant numbers at 32-plus. Adam Thielen ranked 31st among wide receivers in 2022, with 70 catches for 716 yards and 6 TDs. After the Vikings dumped him, he ranked 17th last year as a 33-year-old, with 103 catches for 1,014 yards and 4 TDs.
But guys do tend to fade away as they move into their mid-‘30s. In the last 10 years, there have been only 30 occasions in which a receiver at least 32 years old ranked in the top 50 at the position (using PPR scoring). Only 3 put up top-10 numbers, and only another 4 finished in the top 20. Another 4 (so 11 total) put up top-30 numbers.
Only three receivers in these 10 years caught more than 6 TDs. It’s a young man’s game.
| OLDER RECEIVERS WITH TOP-50 NUMBERS (last 10 yrs) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Age | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2017 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 34 | 109 | 1,156 | 6 | 263.7 | 5 |
| 2019 | Julian Edelman, N.E. | 33 | 100 | 1,117 | 6 | 258.8 | 7 |
| 2015 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 32 | 109 | 1,215 | 9 | 284.5 | 7 |
| 2016 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 33 | 107 | 1,023 | 6 | 245.8 | 11 |
| 2023 | • Adam Thielen, Car. | 33 | 103 | 1,014 | 4 | 231.0 | 17 |
| 2014 | Steve Smith, Balt. | 35 | 79 | 1,065 | 6 | 221.5 | 18 |
| 2014 | Anquan Boldin, S.F. | 34 | 83 | 1,062 | 5 | 219.6 | 19 |
| 2018 | Julian Edelman, N.E. | 32 | 74 | 850 | 6 | 207.9 | 21 |
| 2014 | Roddy White, Atl. | 33 | 80 | 921 | 7 | 214.1 | 21 |
| 2018 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 35 | 69 | 734 | 6 | 186.0 | 26 |
| 2014 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 33 | 85 | 936 | 3 | 196.6 | 28 |
| 2022 | • Adam Thielen, Min. | 32 | 70 | 716 | 6 | 180.0 | 31 |
| 2019 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den.-S.F. | 32 | 66 | 869 | 5 | 190.7 | 32 |
| 2017 | Ted Ginn, N.O. | 32 | 53 | 787 | 4 | 159.6 | 34 |
| 2019 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 36 | 75 | 804 | 4 | 179.4 | 35 |
| 2016 | Steve Smith, Balt. | 37 | 70 | 799 | 5 | 183.9 | 37 |
| 2018 | Jordy Nelson, Oak. | 33 | 63 | 739 | 3 | 156.7 | 38 |
| 2021 | Cole Beasley, Buff. | 32 | 82 | 693 | 1 | 159.3 | 39 |
| 2015 | Anquan Boldin, S.F. | 35 | 69 | 789 | 4 | 171.9 | 40 |
| 2014 | Malcom Floyd, S.D. | 33 | 52 | 856 | 6 | 173.6 | 40 |
| 2021 | A.J. Green, Ari. | 33 | 54 | 848 | 3 | 156.8 | 41 |
| 2020 | Emmanuel Sanders, N.O. | 33 | 61 | 726 | 5 | 164.8 | 41 |
| 2016 | Anquan Boldin, Det. | 36 | 67 | 584 | 8 | 173.4 | 42 |
| 2018 | DeSean Jackson, T.B. | 32 | 41 | 774 | 4 | 151.3 | 43 |
| 2017 | Danny Amendola, N.E. | 32 | 61 | 659 | 2 | 138.9 | 44 |
| 2017 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 32 | 53 | 482 | 6 | 137.2 | 46 |
| 2019 | Danny Amendola, Det. | 34 | 62 | 678 | 1 | 140.8 | 49 |
| 2016 | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 32 | 59 | 788 | 3 | 155.8 | 49 |
| 2015 | Nate Washington, Hou. | 32 | 47 | 658 | 4 | 136.8 | 49 |
| 2014 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 36 | 64 | 779 | 2 | 153.9 | 50 |
So with our current group, I would think will see some disappointed fantasy shoppers. The ADP data on ESPN indicates Adams is currently going 9th among wide receivers. I have him 10 spots lower on my board. I realized he’s had a bunch of seasons with double-digit touchdowns, but those were authored by a younger man playing in much better offenses.
I believe Adams has lost some athleticism; I don’t think he’s one of the top half-dozen players at the position anymore. He’s in a lesser offense now, and his decline could be accelerated if Brock Bowers is as good as most people are expecting.
Keenan Allen caught 108 passes last year, but he’s moving into a lesser offense now, and with more other receivers around him. In Allen and DJ Moore, the Bears have two target-hog receivers, along with a rookie who’ll need to utilized. Allen is going about 30th among receivers in drafts, but I’ve got him five spots lower. (One of those guys I’m hoping not to select in leagues.)
The ESPN numbers indicate Hopkins will go about 37th among receivers, with Lockett going 48th. Those numbers are more in line with my projections. Both guys are declining, but I expect they’ll still be chipping in some productive games – they’ve still got their veteran smarts.
—Ian Allan