Factoid

July 24, 2024

Older WRs

The risk of selecting older receivers

Father Time is undefeated, and with that in mind, I think we need to be careful when selecting guys like Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Lockett. All will be 32 at the end of the season, and it’s rare to see big numbers out of players at that age.

Only one active receiver has put up relevant numbers at 32-plus. Adam Thielen ranked 31st among wide receivers in 2022, with 70 catches for 716 yards and 6 TDs. After the Vikings dumped him, he ranked 17th last year as a 33-year-old, with 103 catches for 1,014 yards and 4 TDs.

But guys do tend to fade away as they move into their mid-‘30s. In the last 10 years, there have been only 30 occasions in which a receiver at least 32 years old ranked in the top 50 at the position (using PPR scoring). Only 3 put up top-10 numbers, and only another 4 finished in the top 20. Another 4 (so 11 total) put up top-30 numbers.

Only three receivers in these 10 years caught more than 6 TDs. It’s a young man’s game.

OLDER RECEIVERS WITH TOP-50 NUMBERS (last 10 yrs)
Year	Player	Age	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Rk
2017	Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.	34	109	1,156	6	263.7	5
2019	Julian Edelman, N.E.	33	100	1,117	6	258.8	7
2015	Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.	32	109	1,215	9	284.5	7
2016	Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.	33	107	1,023	6	245.8	11
2023	• Adam Thielen, Car.	33	103	1,014	4	231.0	17
2014	Steve Smith, Balt.	35	79	1,065	6	221.5	18
2014	Anquan Boldin, S.F.	34	83	1,062	5	219.6	19
2018	Julian Edelman, N.E.	32	74	850	6	207.9	21
2014	Roddy White, Atl.	33	80	921	7	214.1	21
2018	Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.	35	69	734	6	186.0	26
2014	Andre Johnson, Hou.	33	85	936	3	196.6	28
2022	• Adam Thielen, Min.	32	70	716	6	180.0	31
2019	Emmanuel Sanders, Den.-S.F.	32	66	869	5	190.7	32
2017	Ted Ginn, N.O.	32	53	787	4	159.6	34
2019	Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.	36	75	804	4	179.4	35
2016	Steve Smith, Balt.	37	70	799	5	183.9	37
2018	Jordy Nelson, Oak.	33	63	739	3	156.7	38
2021	Cole Beasley, Buff.	32	82	693	1	159.3	39
2015	Anquan Boldin, S.F.	35	69	789	4	171.9	40
2014	Malcom Floyd, S.D.	33	52	856	6	173.6	40
2021	A.J. Green, Ari.	33	54	848	3	156.8	41
2020	Emmanuel Sanders, N.O.	33	61	726	5	164.8	41
2016	Anquan Boldin, Det.	36	67	584	8	173.4	42
2018	DeSean Jackson, T.B.	32	41	774	4	151.3	43
2017	Danny Amendola, N.E.	32	61	659	2	138.9	44
2017	Jordy Nelson, G.B.	32	53	482	6	137.2	46
2019	Danny Amendola, Det.	34	62	678	1	140.8	49
2016	Brandon Marshall, NYJ	32	59	788	3	155.8	49
2015	Nate Washington, Hou.	32	47	658	4	136.8	49
2014	Reggie Wayne, Ind.	36	64	779	2	153.9	50

So with our current group, I would think will see some disappointed fantasy shoppers. The ADP data on ESPN indicates Adams is currently going 9th among wide receivers. I have him 10 spots lower on my board. I realized he’s had a bunch of seasons with double-digit touchdowns, but those were authored by a younger man playing in much better offenses.

I believe Adams has lost some athleticism; I don’t think he’s one of the top half-dozen players at the position anymore. He’s in a lesser offense now, and his decline could be accelerated if Brock Bowers is as good as most people are expecting.

Keenan Allen caught 108 passes last year, but he’s moving into a lesser offense now, and with more other receivers around him. In Allen and DJ Moore, the Bears have two target-hog receivers, along with a rookie who’ll need to utilized. Allen is going about 30th among receivers in drafts, but I’ve got him five spots lower. (One of those guys I’m hoping not to select in leagues.)

The ESPN numbers indicate Hopkins will go about 37th among receivers, with Lockett going 48th. Those numbers are more in line with my projections. Both guys are declining, but I expect they’ll still be chipping in some productive games – they’ve still got their veteran smarts.

—Ian Allan

11 Reader Comments:

Robert McKinlay

Belews Creek, NC

2024-07-24T17:34:42Z

I agree Ian. I had Adams alot and Hopkins. Allen once was high injury risk and with 2 other hungary WRS at Bears I avoid. Who do you like more at pick 15 in PPR, Harrison or London?

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY

2024-07-24T17:53:00Z

Arizona team text in the Internet Update has the answer to your question

Richard Weber

Fort Myers, FL

2024-07-24T21:28:52Z

These stats don't really discourage me. They tell me that on average, three over-32 guys a year finish in the top 50. Last year, Thielen was WR17. Adams will likely finish higher than that.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2024-07-24T21:51:58Z

Numbers also suggest about one 32-year-old receiver per year will finish with top-30 numbers. And if you want to select Adams, you need to pull the trigger about 10 receivers into the draft. I'm out at that price.

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY

2024-07-25T00:19:19Z

Odunze in the 10th round usually seems like a value to me.

Aaron Vander Vorst

West Fargo, ND

2024-07-25T00:27:58Z

Getting mixed messages across the FI materials. This article is pretty down on Davante, but a recent article and the first podcast listed him at the top of the players being undervalued in drafts. Can you please make sure you are coordinated in your thoughts about players?

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA

2024-07-25T01:01:41Z

Out of curiosity I poked around and found a July 10th article entitled "Six WRs... A Model of Consistency". Not an article authored by Ian, by the way. Adams was the fifth of 6th WRs listed. And he belonged there. He has been a model of consistency over the years.
The article didn't weigh in on Adams' prospects for this season, and neither did they weigh in on Stefon Diggs' prospects either. But I think the article was pretty fair in its judgment of the receivers it listed. It didn't go into 2024 prospects for anyone..

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2024-07-25T02:24:35Z

Andy and I are doing the written product. We're putting together the stat projections that feed into the database. Luke and Colt are doing the audio stuff (podcast and YouTube). They'll have some of their own opinions, just as Andy and I will have varying opinions on the written side.

Brian Boyd

Maple Grove, MN

2024-07-25T16:02:02Z

Last year I took Ekeler and Kupp in the first 2 rounds. I'm avoiding players close to 30 or older in my drafts. To much wear and tear.

Richard Loppnow

Ephrata, WA

2024-07-26T23:05:36Z

Sounds a bit like Homer Simpson, Brian! "Keep your head down and follow through ... OK OK, this time lift your head up and don't follow through."

Dan Meyer

New Prague, MN

2024-08-06T16:40:12Z

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't Randy Moss have a 17 TD year playing with Tom Brady in the 2000's when he was 34 or 35? Perhaps he wasn't PPR producing based on your data - I would think leading the league in TD passes would have put Randy up there as a leading WR.

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Factoid

Older WRs

11 Reader Comments:

Robert McKinlay

Andy Richardson

Richard Weber

Ian Allan

David Kennedy

Aaron Vander Vorst

Paul Desimone

Ian Allan

Brian Boyd

Richard Loppnow

Dan Meyer

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