With the preseason games underway, it’s time to start making sense of of the training camp hopefuls. Is there an undrafted nobody who’ll wind up being a viable NFL player? Wes Welker, Doug Baldwin and Adam Thielen, after all, showed up at training camps way back when as undrafted long shots.
Focusing on the wide receiver position, it’s not easy. Particularly to see an instant impact. In the 32-team era, no rookie free agent receiver has finished with top-40 numbers (using PPR scoring). Only eight have even cracked the top 70 in their first year.
| FREE AGENT RECEIVERS WITH TOP-70 STATS (rookies) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2011 | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 51 | 788 | 4 | 153.6 | 42 |
| 2017 | Keelan Cole, Jac. | 42 | 748 | 3 | 134.8 | 48 |
| 2013 | Marlon Brown, Balt. | 49 | 524 | 7 | 145.2 | 48 |
| 2014 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | 51 | 677 | 6 | 154.7 | 49 |
| 2003 | Dane Looker, St.L. | 47 | 495 | 3 | 115.1 | 59 |
| 2012 | Rod Streater, Oak. | 39 | 584 | 3 | 117.4 | 64 |
| 2019 | Steven Sims, Was. | 34 | 310 | 6 | 109.5 | 66 |
| 2016 | Robby Anderson, NYJ | 42 | 587 | 2 | 116.9 | 68 |
But if we look not at rookie seasons but entire careers, there’s a flicker of promise. Of undrafted receivers entering the league since 2002, 26 have authored at least one top-40 season. Five have had a top-10 season (the three mentioned previously, plus Victor Cruz and Miles Austin), and six others have had a top-20 season.
In the chart below, I’m showing just the very best season for each player (rather than listing guys like Welker and Thielen a bunch of times). The net yields 26 such receivers enter the league in the last 22 seasons, which suggest there’s probably a free agent wide receiver out there this summer who will put up at least one top-40 season in his career.
| FREE AGENT RECEIVERS WITH TOP-40 STATS (career) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yr | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2011 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 8 | 122 | 1,569 | 9 | 335.9 | 2 |
| 2011 | Victor Cruz, NYG | 2 | 82 | 1,536 | 9 | 289.9 | 3 |
| 2009 | Miles Austin, Dall. | 4 | 81 | 1,320 | 11 | 278.8 | 6 |
| 2018 | Adam Thielen, Min. | 5 | 113 | 1,373 | 9 | 309.3 | 7 |
| 2016 | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 6 | 94 | 1,128 | 7 | 253.8 | 8 |
| 2006 | Mike Furrey, Det. | 4 | 98 | 1,086 | 6 | 242.6 | 13 |
| 2011 | Nate Washington, Ten. | 9 | 74 | 1,023 | 8 | 224.8 | 15 |
| 2008 | Lance Moore, N.O. | 4 | 79 | 928 | 10 | 231.8 | 15 |
| 2017 | Robby Anderson, NYJ | 2 | 63 | 941 | 7 | 200.0 | 18 |
| 2015 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | 2 | 64 | 1,031 | 10 | 227.1 | 19 |
| 2016 | Tyrell Williams, S.D. | 2 | 69 | 1,059 | 7 | 216.9 | 19 |
| 2010 | Davone Bess, Mia. | 3 | 79 | 820 | 5 | 190.7 | 23 |
| 2018 | Adam Humphries, T.B. | 4 | 76 | 816 | 5 | 188.7 | 24 |
| 2023 | Jakobi Meyers, L.V. | 5 | 71 | 807 | 10 | 218.7 | 24 |
| 2020 | Cole Beasley, Buff. | 9 | 82 | 967 | 4 | 207.7 | 27 |
| 2017 | Jermaine Kearse, NYJ | 6 | 65 | 810 | 5 | 176.0 | 28 |
| 2015 | Kamar Aiken, Balt. | 3 | 75 | 944 | 5 | 199.4 | 29 |
| 2010 | Danny Amendola, St.L. | 2 | 85 | 689 | 3 | 180.0 | 30 |
| 2016 | Willie Snead, N.O. | 3 | 72 | 895 | 4 | 192.0 | 32 |
| 2021 | Kendrick Bourne, N.E. | 5 | 55 | 800 | 5 | 182.8 | 32 |
| 2013 | Rod Streater, Oak. | 2 | 60 | 888 | 4 | 174.5 | 33 |
| 2022 | Allen Lazard, G.B. | 5 | 60 | 788 | 6 | 174.8 | 34 |
| 2005 | Eric Parker, S.D. | 4 | 57 | 725 | 3 | 153.0 | 38 |
| 2012 | Malcom Floyd, S.D. | 9 | 56 | 814 | 5 | 167.4 | 38 |
| 2016 | Cameron Meredith, Chi. | 2 | 66 | 888 | 4 | 183.5 | 38 |
| 2011 | David Nelson, Buff. | 2 | 61 | 658 | 5 | 156.8 | 39 |
The question, then, becomes can we identify any of these trains coming down the tracks? Are these guys making their talent apparent in their initial preseason games?
Below see the 18 rookie free agents in the last 20 years who’ve had a top-30 season. (On this one, I’m not listed their best season; I’m listing the first top-30 season of their career). I’ve got them in descending order by production, with the guys finishing with the best regular-season numbers (Cruz, Austin, Welker) listed first, and the guys barely scrapping into the top 30 at the bottom.
In the chart, I’m not even listing their regular-season stats; those aren’t so important (so I mention just the PPR rank). I’m instead listing what they did in their preseason games (not the preseason from their big year, but their first preseason as a pro – when they were an undrafted nobody).
There are some guys I remember showing up big on the stage in August. Victor Cruz and Robby Anderson, for sure, kept getting open and catching long passes. Jakobi Meyers caught 20 passes and 2 TDs for the Patriots. All totaled, I see six who caught at least 9 passes and a touchdown, and another three who caught touchdowns.
Meyers (pictured) was a reliable performer for the Patriots and was a steady pass catcher for Las Vegas last year.
Note that in seven of the 18 cases, the player was with a different NFL team as a rookie (I’ve got them tagged with black dots). With the majority of these 18 players, they’re not coming out with a hammer and beating us over the head. If there’s a Meyers or Anderson type of standout, we can run with that, but it’s going to get pretty flimsy for the bulk of the guys.
| FREE AGENT RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yr | Rk | Tgt | No | Yds | Avg | Lg | TD |
| 2011 | Victor Cruz, NYG | 2 | 3th | 25 | 15 | 297 | 19.8 | 64t | 4 |
| 2009 | Miles Austin, Dall. | 4 | 6th | 1 | 1 | 48 | 48.0 | 48t | 1 |
| 2007 | • Wes Welker, N.E. | 4 | 10th | 5 | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 24t | 1 |
| 2015 | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 5 | 11th | 13 | 9 | 69 | 7.7 | 11 | 0 |
| 2006 | • Mike Furrey, Det. | 4 | 13th | 4 | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 19 | 0 |
| 2011 | • Nate Washington, Ten. | 7 | 15th | 17 | 8 | 108 | 13.5 | 33 | 0 |
| 2008 | • Lance Moore, N.O. | 4 | 15th | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 4 | 0 |
| 2017 | Robby Anderson, NYJ | 2 | 18th | 24 | 16 | 264 | 16.5 | 50 | 3 |
| 2015 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | 2 | 19th | 20 | 14 | 232 | 16.6 | 45 | 1 |
| 2016 | Tyrell Williams, S.D. | 2 | 19th | 20 | 10 | 137 | 13.7 | 63t | 1 |
| 2010 | Davone Bess, Mia. | 3 | 23rd | 12 | 8 | 64 | 8.0 | 20 | 0 |
| 2018 | Adam Humphries, T.B. | 4 | 24th | 14 | 9 | 139 | 15.4 | 37 | 1 |
| 2020 | • Cole Beasley, Buff. | 9 | 27th | 13 | 10 | 144 | 14.4 | 29 | 0 |
| 2017 | • Jermaine Kearse, NYJ | 6 | 28th | 3 | 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 37 | 0 |
| 2021 | Jakobi Meyers, N.E. | 3 | 29th | 28 | 20 | 253 | 12.7 | 28 | 2 |
| 2015 | Kamar Aiken, Balt. | 3 | 29th | 17 | 8 | 103 | 12.9 | 27 | 0 |
| 2010 | • Danny Amendola, St.L. | 2 | 30th | 7 | 4 | 64 | 16.0 | 35 | 0 |
| 2016 | Adam Thielen, Min. | 3 | 30th | 12 | 8 | 99 | 12.4 | 16 | 1 |
Regardless, the preseason is underway, and we’ll patiently work our way through these 49 practice games, trying to gauge whether there’s a Cinderella story who can bubble to the surface.
—Ian Allan
