Two of the hot pickups in dynasty leagues this week will probably be a couple of late-round wide receivers. Rams sixth-rounder Jordan Whittington (pictured) and Broncos seventh-rounder Devaughn Vele were among the guys who caught our eye over the weekend. Are they worth adding?
Ian ran an item over the weekend about undrafted wide receivers putting up decent numbers as rookies, or at some point in their career. It actually looks like you're better off chasing wideouts who weren't drafted at all than ones selected in the sixth or seventh round. Based on the last decade, anyway.
Looking at the numbers, the fifth round kind of looks like the endpoint of successful draft picks. There are a bunch of successful wide receivers to come out of that round lately, from elite (Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Puka Nacua) to at least usable (Marquez Valdes-Scantling, K.J. Osborn, Hunter Renfrow, Darius Slayton). Both Darnell Mooney and especial Khalil Shakir might be viable starters this year.
Sixth and seventh rounds? Not so much.
In the last 10 years, the most successful rookie drafted in the sixth or seventh round was New England's Demario (now DeMario) Douglas. He finished 64th last year in PPR leagues. That's the best rookie selected from those rounds. If you're using a last-round pick on Whittington in a redraft league, those are the odds he's facing.
How about in dynasty? I pulled the first three seasons for all sixth- and seventh-round wide receivers from the last 10 years. I think three years is pretty much the maximum you want to wait on any player, even in dynasty. Those numbers aren't great either.
In the last decade, there have been two wide receivers drafted in the sixth or seventh rounds to finish with top 40 numbers in any of their first three seasons. Atlanta's Russell Gage, and Cleveland's Donovan Peoples-Jones. Each of those guys did it their third year in the league.
| 6TH- AND 7TH-ROUND WRS, 1ST THREE SEASONS (2014-2023) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Year | Player | Yr | Rec | Yds | TD | Rk |
| 6 | 2020 | Russell Gage, Atl. | 3 | 72 | 786 | 4 | 37 |
| 6 | 2022 | Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cle. | 3 | 61 | 839 | 4 | 38 |
| 6 | 2016 | Quincy Enunwa, NYJ | 2 | 58 | 857 | 4 | 45 |
| 6 | 2021 | Quez Watkins, Phil. | 2 | 43 | 647 | 1 | 61 |
| 6 | 2021 | Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cle. | 2 | 34 | 597 | 3 | 63 |
| 6 | 2023 | Demario Douglas, N.E. | 1 | 49 | 561 | 0 | 64 |
| 6 | 2020 | Travis Fulgham, Phil. | 2 | 38 | 539 | 4 | 66 |
| 7 | 2019 | Auden Tate, Cin. | 2 | 40 | 575 | 1 | 67 |
| 6 | 2023 | Trey Palmer, T.B. | 1 | 39 | 385 | 3 | 70 |
| 6 | 2019 | Russell Gage, Atl. | 2 | 49 | 446 | 1 | 70 |
| 7 | 2018 | David Moore, Sea. | 2 | 26 | 445 | 5 | 72 |
| 6 | 2022 | Isaiah Hodgins, 2TM | 3 | 37 | 392 | 4 | 72 |
| 6 | 2020 | Scott Miller, T.B. | 2 | 33 | 501 | 3 | 73 |
| 6 | 2020 | Braxton Berrios, NYJ | 3 | 37 | 394 | 3 | 82 |
| 6 | 2021 | Freddie Swain, Sea. | 2 | 25 | 343 | 4 | 83 |
| 6 | 2022 | Quez Watkins, Phil. | 3 | 33 | 354 | 3 | 84 |
| 7 | 2014 | Charles Johnson, Min. | 2 | 31 | 475 | 2 | 85 |
| 7 | 2019 | Olabisi Johnson, Min. | 1 | 31 | 294 | 3 | 86 |
| 7 | 2022 | Ben Skowronek, LAR | 2 | 39 | 376 | 1 | 86 |
| 7 | 2015 | Marquess Wilson, Chi. | 3 | 28 | 464 | 1 | 87 |
| 7 | 2022 | Jauan Jennings, S.F. | 3 | 35 | 416 | 1 | 90 |
| 7 | 2021 | Jauan Jennings, S.F. | 2 | 24 | 282 | 5 | 91 |
| 6 | 2019 | Kelvin Harmon, Was. | 1 | 30 | 365 | 0 | 92 |
| 6 | 2018 | Jakeem Grant, Mia. | 3 | 21 | 268 | 4 | 93 |
| 7 | 2019 | David Moore, Sea. | 3 | 17 | 301 | 2 | 99 |
| 6 | 2023 | A.T. Perry, N.O. | 1 | 12 | 246 | 4 | 100 |
Table shows everyone to even finish in the top 100 in PPR leagues. A sobering list if you're considering rostering one of these players.
Looking at the table, I see a couple of guys with a chance at being relevant this season. Jauan Jennings in San Francisco (especially if Brandon Aiyuk ultimately gets traded, natch) and A.T. Perry in New Orleans, given their ugly looking receiver depth chart behind Chris Olave. A little more likely is Trey Palmer, with a decent chance of being the No. 3 in Tampa Bay, and DeMario Douglas (potentially the No. 1 in New England).
But not a great history. The field of fifth-rounders and undrafted players looks a lot more promising.
As for the two specific players, I will defy the odds and roster Whittington if I can. Sean McVay likes him. Cooper Kupp is an older and potentially injury-prone wideout, and Puka Nacua is hurt right now. The Rams have done a good job of finding unheralded wide receivers, like Nacua. Whittington might be the No. 3, or higher, this year. Catching 6 passes for 74 yards, as he did yesterday, is legitimate production, even in an exhibition game. Plus if he gets in a game he'd be working with Matthew Stafford, who is a wee bit better than Stetson Bennett.
I also picked up Vele in dynasty, but that seems less likely to pay off. For one thing, he's 26 years old. For another, the Broncos have a lot of other wide receivers who barring injury look certain to be ahead of him: Sutton, Mims, Reynolds, Patrick. I think he'll make the team, but a lot needs to happen for him to actually get some offensive opportunities.
But we can hope. Whittington, perhaps, can do the 6th- and 7th-rounders of the world proud.
--Andy Richardson