J.J. McCarthy will miss all of his rookie season after knee surgery, but I don’t know if the Vikings will miss him all that much. Sam Darnold looks like he might be just fine at quarterback.
That may sound ridiculous, with Darnold being 21-35 as an NFL starter. He’s gone 10-20 the last four years, with 27 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. He’s been generally lousy.
But the Vikings believe he’s better than the numbers suggest, as evidenced by them signing him to a one-year deal worth $10 million. That’s over twice as much as Baker Mayfield got from Tampa Bay last year. More notably, Minnesota is sitting on one of the top few quarterback whisperers in the league. Kevin O’Connell understands how to draw up an effective passing game.
This was underscored last year, when the Vikings had to play half the season without Kirk Cousins. Despite using a hodge-podge collection of lesser quarterbacks – Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall, Nick Mullens – the team’s passing production nonetheless averaged 235 passing yards in their final nine games (just below the league average).
The Vikings played half of those games without Justin Jefferson. When he returned, the offense heated up, with Mullens passing for 411 and 396 yards in the last two weeks of the season. There were only seven other games last year with a quarterback passing for over 390 yards.
| TEAM PASSING PRODUCTION (2023) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TD | Points |
| Vikings (Cousins) | 291.4 | 2.25 | 23.6 |
| Miami | 276.4 | 1.76 | 20.9 |
| Dallas | 274.1 | 2.12 | 22.2 |
| Detroit | 270.9 | 1.76 | 20.6 |
| Houston | 269.3 | 1.59 | 19.8 |
| San Francisco | 269.2 | 1.94 | 21.2 |
| Kansas City | 257.8 | 1.65 | 19.5 |
| Jacksonville | 257.5 | 1.29 | 18.1 |
| LA Chargers | 253.6 | 1.41 | 18.3 |
| Buffalo | 253.3 | 1.71 | 19.5 |
| LA Rams | 252.9 | 1.53 | 18.8 |
| Cincinnati | 250.4 | 1.59 | 18.9 |
| New Orleans | 248.5 | 1.65 | 19.0 |
| Green Bay | 247.6 | 1.88 | 19.9 |
| Washington | 245.5 | 1.41 | 17.9 |
| Seattle | 245.1 | 1.35 | 17.7 |
| Philadelphia | 239.2 | 1.41 | 17.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 237.9 | 1.65 | 18.5 |
| Cleveland | 235.9 | 1.41 | 17.4 |
| Vikings (other QBs) | 235.0 | 1.33 | 17.1 |
| Indianapolis | 228.4 | 1.06 | 15.7 |
| Baltimore | 228.3 | 1.59 | 17.8 |
| Atlanta | 222.1 | 1.00 | 15.1 |
| Las Vegas | 215.6 | 1.18 | 15.5 |
| Denver | 209.8 | 1.65 | 17.1 |
| Tennessee | 206.6 | .82 | 13.6 |
| Arizona | 201.8 | 1.06 | 14.3 |
| Chicago | 201.2 | 1.12 | 14.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 201.2 | .76 | 13.1 |
| New England | 199.5 | .94 | 13.7 |
| NY Jets | 198.4 | .65 | 12.5 |
| NY Giants | 197.1 | .88 | 13.4 |
| Carolina | 190.9 | .76 | 12.6 |
The question, then, becomes whether they can plug in Darnold and get some Mullins-type production. Darnold spent last year in San Francisco, practicing in a similar style of offense.
I was impressed by Darnold in the preseason opener. The numbers were ordinary (4 of 8 for 59 yards), but I saw four throws I really liked.
No. 1:On his first throw, Darnold rips a 19-yarder to the left sideline, with Jalen Nailor open and the ball arriving on time. (With Jefferson sitting out, Nailor was filling in at that spot.)
No. 2: Third-and-10 at midfield. Nailor runs a deep route across the middle. Darnold layers the ball over the linebacker for a 26-yard gain. Not the kind of throw he was making with the Jets and Panthers.
No. 3: Third-and-7 just inside the red zone. Darnold connects with Jordan Addison on an out route at the sticks to the keep the drive alive.
No. 4: Third-and-2 near the goal line. Darnold scrambles to his left. Hits Ty Chandler in the hands at the goal line, but Chandler (with a defender nearby) drops it. (Chandler also had a concentration drop a few plays earlier).
There was a fourth-down play that ended this drive, and Darnold’s throw on that one looked pretty good also. It seemed accurate. (I’m not sure if the ball was dropped or knocked away, but it certainly wasn’t a misfire.)
I will be interested to see Darnold in the next preseason game, because I’m getting the feeling he’s going to be putting up above-average passing numbers. While he’s not especially mobile, he’s also been willing to run. (He’s averaged 19 rushing yards in his last 18 starts, with 8 TDs.
For fantasy purposes, I’m seeing Darnold as a #2 quarterback in a 10- or 12-team league. I’d be comfortable with him in that role. Given the nature of that Minnesota offense, I’m mulling whether to slot him ahead of guys like Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson. Relative to where he’ll be picked, I’m wondering whether Darnold will be the best “value” of the quarterbacks I’ve got in the teens.
—Ian Allan