The regular season is a month away, and we can start firming up overall expectations – which offenses are going to be piling up the most yards and touchdowns? (Those numbers, of course, go hand in hand with the stats that will be put together by individual players.)
On our board, we’ve got five offenses projecting to average 3-plus touchdowns, and I don’t think any of them are big surprises. Certainly not San Francisco, Detroit, Kansas City or Baltimore. Cincinnati won’t quite be in most people’s top 5, but we’ve got them right there with that group. With Joe Burrow having bleached his hair, he’s looking like he might put up numbers reminiscent of Boomer Esiason in his prime.
The 49ers are the offense that separates just a little (with almost 3 more touchdowns than anyone else), but they’ll get pulled back into that group if they wind up giving away Brandon Aiyuk with little immediate help coming in return. (The Bengals also have a holdout receiver, which could drag them down a notch).
We’ve got five offenses in what could be called a second tier – Rams, Bills, Packers, Dolphins, Eagles. Maybe Houston should be in that group, but the Texans scored only 37 touchdowns last year (we’ve got them up at 44, which is already a notable increase).
The Patriots and Panthers are looking like the lowest-scoring teams in each conference. We’ve got them both below 30 touchdowns.
These numbers are notable, but they’re all tied to our individual player projections. When we’re making adjustments on our board, we can either change the team total (affecting all players on that roster), or we can change an individual’s projected portion of the team’s total. (As you grow to like Zack Moss or Chase Brown in Cincinnati, as an example, you can push more of the stats to that guy’s side of the ledger – it’s the way we do it.)
PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | TDP | TDR | Total |
San Francisco | 33.2 | 21.4 | 54.6 |
Kansas City | 38.3 | 13.8 | 52.0 |
Detroit | 29.4 | 22.6 | 52.0 |
Baltimore | 27.5 | 23.5 | 51.0 |
Cincinnati | 37.6 | 13.4 | 51.0 |
LA Rams | 32.8 | 16.2 | 49.0 |
Buffalo | 25.9 | 22.1 | 48.0 |
Green Bay | 33.7 | 14.3 | 48.0 |
Miami | 27.2 | 20.4 | 47.6 |
Philadelphia | 26.2 | 21.3 | 47.5 |
Dallas | 33.0 | 12.1 | 45.1 |
Houston | 31.1 | 12.9 | 44.0 |
Indianapolis | 20.8 | 20.7 | 41.5 |
LA Chargers | 23.5 | 16.7 | 40.1 |
Atlanta | 27.3 | 12.2 | 39.5 |
Jacksonville | 25.5 | 13.9 | 39.4 |
Tampa Bay | 28.1 | 11.2 | 39.3 |
Seattle | 25.2 | 13.8 | 39.0 |
Cleveland | 24.5 | 14.5 | 39.0 |
NY Jets | 26.2 | 12.4 | 38.6 |
Washington | 20.6 | 18.0 | 38.5 |
Arizona | 21.9 | 16.6 | 38.5 |
Chicago | 24.8 | 12.6 | 37.5 |
New Orleans | 24.7 | 12.8 | 37.4 |
Denver | 25.8 | 10.7 | 36.6 |
Minnesota | 25.2 | 10.9 | 36.0 |
Pittsburgh | 17.7 | 17.9 | 35.5 |
Las Vegas | 20.9 | 11.7 | 32.6 |
Tennessee | 19.6 | 12.9 | 32.5 |
NY Giants | 20.1 | 11.1 | 31.1 |
Carolina | 19.1 | 9.9 | 29.0 |
New England | 17.9 | 10.7 | 28.6 |
Looking just at passing production, we’ve currently got Kansas City, Cincinnati and the Rams as our top 3 teams. Each, it should be noticed, is currently practicing without a notable pass catcher, with Hollywood Brown and Puka Nacua holding out and Ja’Marr Chase looking for a contract extension. The Rams also have other injuries, while KC may be hit by a Rashee Rice suspension. But those are out top 3.
Pittsburgh is currently last on our board. There’s been some buzz about Justin Fields looking good in practices, but I thought he looked like the same old Fields in the preseason opener. Ten pass plays, I think, and they including 4 easy underneath completions that any quarterback would make, one impressive downfield strike to Van Jefferson, 2 fumbled snaps and 2 sacks, at least one of which should have been avoided. (I think they’ll be opening with Russell Wilson at QB.)
In the chart below, they’re ranked using 1 point for every 10 passing yards and 6 points for each touchdown pass.
PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Pts |
Kansas City | 280 | 2.25 | 41.5 |
Cincinnati | 280 | 2.21 | 41.3 |
LA Rams | 278 | 1.93 | 39.4 |
Houston | 276 | 1.83 | 38.6 |
San Francisco | 268 | 1.95 | 38.5 |
Green Bay | 262 | 1.98 | 38.1 |
Dallas | 261 | 1.94 | 37.7 |
Detroit | 266 | 1.73 | 37.0 |
Miami | 258 | 1.60 | 35.4 |
Atlanta | 255 | 1.60 | 35.1 |
Tampa Bay | 242 | 1.65 | 34.1 |
Philadelphia | 245 | 1.54 | 33.8 |
Minnesota | 248 | 1.48 | 33.7 |
Buffalo | 244 | 1.52 | 33.5 |
Jacksonville | 243 | 1.50 | 33.3 |
Baltimore | 235 | 1.62 | 33.2 |
Seattle | 242 | 1.48 | 33.1 |
NY Jets | 235 | 1.54 | 32.7 |
New Orleans | 238 | 1.45 | 32.5 |
Chicago | 236 | 1.46 | 32.4 |
Cleveland | 232 | 1.44 | 31.8 |
LA Chargers | 228 | 1.38 | 31.1 |
Denver | 218 | 1.52 | 30.9 |
Arizona | 228 | 1.29 | 30.5 |
Tennessee | 232 | 1.15 | 30.1 |
Washington | 227 | 1.21 | 30.0 |
Indianapolis | 225 | 1.23 | 29.9 |
NY Giants | 218 | 1.18 | 28.9 |
Las Vegas | 215 | 1.23 | 28.9 |
Carolina | 210 | 1.12 | 27.7 |
New England | 205 | 1.05 | 26.8 |
Pittsburgh | 205 | 1.04 | 26.7 |
For rushing production, I’ve got the Ravens, Bills and Colts as the top 3. With Buffalo having undersized James Cook at tailback, that may surprise some, but they really ran the heck out of it during the second half of last year.
With the Ravens, they have an older running back and some issues to figure out on the offensive line, but I think they will. All three of those top teams, of course, will be helped along by running quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson).
In the chart below, they’re ranked using 1 point for every 10 rushing yards and 6 points for each touchdown run.
PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Pts |
Baltimore | 148 | 1.38 | 23.1 |
Buffalo | 140 | 1.30 | 21.8 |
Indianapolis | 138 | 1.22 | 21.1 |
San Francisco | 135 | 1.26 | 21.1 |
Detroit | 128 | 1.33 | 20.8 |
Philadelphia | 129 | 1.25 | 20.4 |
Pittsburgh | 135 | 1.05 | 19.8 |
Miami | 124 | 1.20 | 19.6 |
Washington | 130 | 1.06 | 19.3 |
Arizona | 128 | .97 | 18.6 |
LA Chargers | 125 | .98 | 18.4 |
Cleveland | 132 | .85 | 18.3 |
LA Rams | 117 | .95 | 17.4 |
Green Bay | 116 | .84 | 16.6 |
Kansas City | 111 | .81 | 16.0 |
Seattle | 108 | .81 | 15.7 |
NY Jets | 112 | .73 | 15.6 |
Chicago | 110 | .74 | 15.5 |
Jacksonville | 104 | .82 | 15.3 |
NY Giants | 114 | .65 | 15.3 |
Atlanta | 106 | .72 | 14.9 |
Dallas | 106 | .71 | 14.9 |
Denver | 110 | .63 | 14.8 |
Houston | 102 | .76 | 14.8 |
New Orleans | 100 | .75 | 14.5 |
New England | 107 | .63 | 14.5 |
Cincinnati | 97 | .79 | 14.4 |
Las Vegas | 102 | .69 | 14.3 |
Carolina | 108 | .58 | 14.3 |
Tennessee | 97 | .76 | 14.3 |
Tampa Bay | 102 | .66 | 14.2 |
Minnesota | 95 | .64 | 13.3 |
—Ian Allan