Scoring is down again this year. Touchdowns, anyway (kickers are doing just fine). Teams are having more trouble putting the ball in the end zone than in the past. Even high-flying Kansas City has scored more than 2 TDs in only one of its games.
There are exceptions, of course. Miami scored 70 points a week ago, and the Bills and Dolphins combined for 68 yesterday. But overall, it’s been a down year.
I audit our projections each week, looking at each team and each player. I look at what they’ve done so far, consider what I was expecting coming into the season and consider how they might perform in their upcoming games (with a closer eye on the next month or so).
According to my estimates, if we were starting a new 17-game season today, only 13 offenses would score 40-plus touchdowns. That’s lower than usual.
With one game left in Week 4, offenses currently are on page to average only 37.8 touchdowns (which for 17 games is only just over 2 per week). Teams averaged a touchdown more last year. Two years ago, teams averaged 4 more touchdowns per season. And if we go back to 2020 (and adjust to account for there being fewer games) teams averaged almost 9 more touchdowns per season.
I’m not sure what’s fueling this. There are more young quarterbacks. That’s probably a factor. And I think defenses are just playing better, with more of an emphasis (in general) of not giving up long touchdowns – making teams work the ball down the field. And teams aren’t turning the ball over as much as they did in previous decades.
Below see the averages of the last four NFL seasons (in bold) mixed in with might current power numbers for each offense. The Seahawks and Giants haven’t yet been audited for Week 4. The other 30 team totals are the ones that will be used in the re-working of our overall board for the Cheat Sheet product that goes out tomorrow.
I’ve got three offenses currently that might make a run at 60 touchdowns, with Josh Allen and the Bills leading the way, just ahead of the Dolphins and 49ers. Kansas City, and Philadelphia were previously in the top tier, but with their struggles thus far, I’ve got them a notch back.
| OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Buffalo | 39.6 | 19.4 | 59.0 |
| Miami | 36.6 | 21.4 | 57.9 |
| San Francisco | 31.5 | 25.8 | 57.4 |
| Kansas City | 38.6 | 16.2 | 54.7 |
| Detroit | 28.1 | 23.0 | 51.0 |
| Philadelphia | 25.5 | 25.5 | 51.0 |
| LA Chargers | 34.9 | 16.2 | 51.0 |
| Baltimore | 24.7 | 24.2 | 48.9 |
| Minnesota | 37.9 | 8.8 | 46.8 |
| 2020 avg | 28.9 | 17.6 | 46.6 |
| Dallas | 26.0 | 18.6 | 44.6 |
| Seattle | 27.2 | 17.4 | 44.6 |
| 2021 avg | 26.3 | 15.8 | 42.1 |
| Green Bay | 29.1 | 12.9 | 42.0 |
| Jacksonville | 26.0 | 14.3 | 40.4 |
| 2022 avg | 23.4 | 15.2 | 38.8 |
| Washington | 20.4 | 18.4 | 38.8 |
| Cleveland | 23.1 | 15.5 | 38.6 |
| LA Rams | 21.3 | 17.0 | 38.3 |
| 2023 avg | 22.9 | 15.0 | 37.9 |
| Indianapolis | 18.7 | 19.0 | 37.7 |
| NY Giants | 21.3 | 16.0 | 37.2 |
| New Orleans | 21.6 | 14.5 | 36.1 |
| Denver | 27.2 | 8.5 | 35.7 |
| Cincinnati | 24.5 | 11.1 | 35.6 |
| Chicago | 20.4 | 14.3 | 34.7 |
| Houston | 27.5 | 7.0 | 34.5 |
| New England | 23.1 | 11.4 | 34.5 |
| Atlanta | 16.5 | 18.0 | 34.5 |
| Las Vegas | 24.5 | 9.9 | 34.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 21.3 | 12.8 | 34.0 |
| Arizona | 18.7 | 14.8 | 33.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 26.0 | 7.5 | 33.5 |
| Tennessee | 17.2 | 16.2 | 33.3 |
| NY Jets | 17.0 | 15.0 | 32.0 |
| Carolina | 18.4 | 8.5 | 26.9 |
—Ian Allan