Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Anthony Richardson's rushing touchdowns. Weighing the Jayden Reed penny stock against the Michael Pittman saving bond. Tweaking rules for kickers. And more.

Question 1

I'm confused by your projections for Anthony Richardson. Your projections show him with only 6 rushing TDs and 554 yards for 2024, even though he had 4 rushing TDs and 136 yards in only 11 quarters last year. I was making the assumption that you were discounting his numbers because of injury concerns, but you have him with over 3000 passing yards, which seems to imply that you are projecting him to play most of the games. Steichen has indicated that they will continue to use Richardson's running ability. I can see them pulling back on designed runs a little bit, but based on Steichen's comments it seems to me he's a lock for 8+ rushing TDs and 700+ rushing yards. Where am I going wrong? Are you just playing with the projections a little bit to keep Richardson from climbing too high in your rankings?

STEVE MAASEN (Saint Charles, MO)

Richardson might score double-digit touchdowns. That’s a possibility. As you note, he scored 4 touchdowns in 11 quarters last year. If use the Homer Simpson projection machine, with a 68-quarter season, that would put him at 25 touchdowns. But he would have to stay healthy, and they would have to continue to use him in the same way. With him having suffered multiple injuries last year despite hardly playing, I think there will be some recalculating on the risk-reward dial. Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen scored 15 touchdowns last year, but only five other true quarterbacks have run for 8-plus touchdowns in the 32-team era. (One season for Fields, Murray, Culpepper, and multiple seasons for Newton, Hurts, Allen and Vick). On my board, I’ve got the Colts scoring about 21 rushing touchdowns, with Jonathan Taylor scoring about twice as many as Richardson. If you want to operate under the assumption that Richardson will be an Allen-Hurts, with Taylor a bystander like James Cook or D’Andre Swift, then your board would look different.

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Question 2

I’m in a 4-keeper dynasty league, mulling Michael Pittman versus Jayden Reed. I noticed you have Reed higher for this season but lower than Pittman in Dynasty. This surprised me a little. Pittman concerns me some. He only had 4 TDs compared to Reed’s 8 last season. Plus Richardson at QB is unproven. Who would you keep?

BRIAN ROWELL (Saint Johns, MI)

Pittman is the safer of the two, with 88, 99 and 109 receptions the last three years. While he’s not explosive, he’ll be heavily involved most weeks. It would be a surprise if he doesn’t lead his team in receiving. With Reed, there’s a lot more uncertainty, with the Packers also having Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. Jordan Love has been talking up Wicks, then threw a long touchdown to him on the first series of the preseason opener. How confident are you that Reed will be even one of the top 2 receivers on his own team? I’m thinking he’ll have a healthy number of quiet weeks.

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Question 3

Long standing argument in our league. I am a kicker fan and think the points and position should be meaningful. Any league whose last round of the draft is all kickers is doing it wrong. Just wasting a position. Kickers kick much longer field goals than they did 20 years ago. Let's reward their efforts. My league currently gives 3 points for field goals 1-39 yards. 5 points for 40-49 yards. 10 points for 50 plus yard field goals. I want to change it to 3 points for 1-44 yards. 5 points 45-55 yards. 10 points for 56 yards plus. By rewarding kickers, it makes the position viable and a strategy piece during the draft where kickers could be drafted much higher than they generally are. A few coaches in my league want to go opposite and give even fewer points than we already give. In my opinion that just dumb downs the position.

Johnny Bazzano (Santa Rosa, CA)

I don’t think 50-yard field goals mean anything anymore. Everybody can hit them now. There have been 154 and 158 of them the last two years, almost four times as many there were at the turn of the century. The Lions have a free agent (Jake Bates) who wasn’t good enough to kick for his college team, and he hit 3 field goals from 60-plus in the UFL. For fantasy purposes, the key to getting kickers out of the last round of the draft isn’t tweaking the scoring system. Better instead to tweak the supply-demand rules. What if each team is required to roster two kickers? That would get people thinking about kickers earlier (there wouldn’t be a huge glut of good kickers, with plenty of good options on the waiver wire).

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Question 4

Just completed my dynasty TD draft. I can only keep 2 wide receivers (no bench) from this group. The group includes Malik Nabers, Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, Brandin Cooks and Khalil Shakir. I have Mahomes as my QB. Thinking of keeping Nabers and Worthy. Your thoughts?

Howie Fishman (Hermosa Beach, CA)

I’d be thinking hard about Khalil Shakir. To me, he looks like a guy who’s ready to emerge in his third season. I think he’ll be Buffalo’s leading receiver.

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Question 5

May we please see a return this year of complete (not top 30) OVERALL WEEKLY rankings? Many other services just call them FLEX rankings. If any on your staff make weekly lineup decisions on multiple teams, surely they understand how a simple projection and weekly ranking of a combined RB/WR/TE points saves time. Why make your customers notate and rank weekly each players projected points when FI could have simply ranked them? C’mon man, everybody’s doin it. Please?

Albert Chapman (Las Vegas, NV)

Reasonable suggestion. We’re discussing. I’m not excited about adding yet another 3 pages to a publication that’s already way too long (I called up one from last November, it was 35 pages). But it would add some value for yourself and others. As product was structured last year, when a reader wanted to compare the player projection of a running backs against a wide receiver, he would need to either look at the stat projections in the Excel file, or look at the online version of the rankings (which include the projected points for each guy).

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Question 6

My question is concerning a PPR dynasty league trade. I am being offered either Josh Jacobs or Saquon Barkley for A.J. Brown. I am pretty good at WR, but do need a RB. With both of these guys being about the same age and going to new teams I am just not sure what to expect from them with new offenses.

Damon Duhon (Baton Rouge, LA)

There are only five running backs with contracts averaging at least $12 million, and these are two of them. Yet Brown has a contract averaging over $7 million more than both of these guys combined. That’s where the game is at nowadays. NFL teams value wide receivers more than running backs. All three of these guys are about the same age. If we’re playing the long game, then I think you stick with Brown. He’ll still be an elite receiver when Jacobs and Barkley are no longer in the league. If you’re pivoting to a running back, it would be more with the hope of winning now, filling that running back spot and figuring you’ll figure out the future receiving situation later. I don’t think I’m a big enough fan of either of those backs that I would pull the trigger. They’ve both had some problems staying healthy, and they’ve both got some flaws. I expect the Packers will be working in some other backs, while with the Iggles, I think Jalen Hurts will still be scoring a bunch of those 1-yard touchdowns on his own.

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Question 7

Full PPR, My keepers lock on Saturday. Pickens 5th round, Kincaid 10th, Rashee Rice 9th. I can only keep 2. I have the 6th overall pick. If I go both Kincaid and Rice that leaves me without a pick from rounds 8-10. I’m just worried about the legal proceedings with Rice?

RON BEST (Church Point, LA)

There’s been no indication that Rashee Rice will be suspended anytime soon. In these situations, the league prefers to wait until the legal process plays out. That might not be until 2025. With Pickens, on the other hand, his value will take a huge hit if the Steelers pull off a trade for Brandon Aiyuk. I would be going with Kincaid and Rice.

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Question 8

As defending champion, albeit luck and a late season hot streak, I have to ask will the FI Guillotine League be returning?

Todd Voorhees (Chula Vista, CA)

I haven’t heard anything about a Guillotine, but I think there could be an auction league in the works. (We didn’t get around to doing a mock auction in the magazine). With you holding a Guillotine title belt, you might be a good fit for such a league.

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Question 9

As far as a super flex draft. Does anyone know where I can find a super flex cheat sheet or strategy?

Nicole Giddings (Duluth, MN)

With our rankings, they’re presented 16 different ways (the same player projections, of course, but applied to different formats). Three are included in the pdf version of the product, but others can be viewed on the website. To access, log on to the site and from the top right corner pull down to “your products”. Click on the most recent version of the “Cheat Sheet Custom Rankings”. On that page you’ll see a couple of options, “Superflex (PPR)” and “Superflex (Standard)”.

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Question 10

I am attempting to custom the cheat sheets and I am entering in the auction data in order to influence the "Top 100". I have never done an auction, so not sure how to answer the "How many drafted will be above the minimum bid?". For example, we will draft around 40 RBs and 48 WRs, but not sure how many would be above a $1 minimum bid. (start 2 RB, 3 WRs and one flex with 8 teams). Looking at the auctions in the FFI Magazine from previous years, seems most bids are above $1.

Steven Hecker (Powell, OH)

Let’s think of it this way. Suppose each team in your league is going to wind up with 15 players. If it were a draft, it would last 15 rounds. How many players at each position would be selected in the first 10 rounds of the draft? The guys in the final five rounds, we don’t care about them so much (many of them will be replaced by the promising players who show up on the waiver wire in September – guys who weren’t picked at all). The best player (at each position) who is available in Round #11 becomes our measuring stick player. That’s the best you can do for the $1 minimum. Once you make that decision, the auction software will tell you how valuable those players who would have been picked in the first 10 rounds are, relative to those $1 benchmark players. If only 40 running backs are going to be selected, you have to factor in that there are going to be a bunch of good running backs who aren’t even going to be on teams. Jaylen Wright, J.K. Dobbins, Jaleel McLaughlin, Khalil Herbert, Tyler Allgeier – there won’t be room for all of those guys to be rostered. So you would want to be careful about paying more than $1 for somebody like Tyjae Spears, Javonte Williams or Ezekiel Elliott, when in mid-September you might want to release them to pick up one of the good backs who wasn’t even purchased. So I would think about two thirds of those 40 backs should go over the $1 minimum.

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Question 11

I play in a 12 team PPR keeper league. Everyone must keep at least 3 players and if you keep a 4th you lose your first-round pick. I have Lamb, G Wilson, Nacua, J Taylor, Ky Williams, Pacheco (good problem to have). Lamb is the easy one but I am having a hard time with the other 3 (they are so close in value). Would like to hear your thoughts.

Robert Buckmann (Mount Dora, FL)

With a wealth of talent, I would take more of a long-range view, prioritizing guys who will also be top-10 players at their position heading in the 2025 season. If we’re going that route, Kyren Williams is your fifth guy – the most likely to turn into a pumpkin. I think you would left mulling whether to keep Taylor or Pacheco. With the Fight Doctor, he’s got the frenetic playing style, making him more of an injury risk (so I would keep Taylor).

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Question 12

Love the Braelon Allen tip. What are your 2024 predictions for sons whose fathers are Hall of Famers, Harrison, Rice, and McCaffrey?

Robert McKinlay (Belews Creek, NC)

Ed McCaffrey had a nice career, but he’s not an NFL Hall of Famer. Regardless, Luke McCaffrey didn’t do anything in his preseason debut that indicates he’ll be making much of a factor. I don’t think he got on the field until the second half of that game. Dyami Brown, meanwhile, started and caught a bomb on the second play. I believe Brown will be playing ahead of McCaffrey for now. I had not thought much about Brendan Rice, with him being just a late-round pick. (I was assuming he was drafted in part because his dad was arguably the greatest receiver in the history of the game.) The younger Rice didn’t catch any of the 3 passes thrown his way in his first preseason game. Marvin Harrison looks like he’ll be very good, though I am starting to tire of his business-driven antics. (Most recently, Harrison is trying to wiggle out of a marketing deal with Fanatics, arguing that the contract isn’t signed by him but by his father.)

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Question 13

In a basic scoring league. All TDs are 6 points. This will be our 37th year and we have used your magazine as the basis for our drafts since Fantasy Index came into existence. I'm picking 6th in every round. We can keep 2 players without losing any picks. If I keep 3, I lose my first-round pick, if I keep 4, I lose my first- and second-round picks. What do you recommend I do with these players? QBs L.Jackson & Richardson, RB J.Taylor, WR P.Nacua, and TE M. Andrews. Do I keep 2, 3, or 4 players considering where I'm drafting?

Manuel Madrid (San Tan Valley, AZ)

I’m not sure if “basic” means TD-only, or touchdowns with some credit for yards. In the TD-only format (particularly with the 6-point touchdowns), touchdowns start getting more valuable. So keep in mind that I’m weighing in despite not being certain of the dynamics of the league. But I would be leaning towards keeping just Taylor and Nacua. That would keep your options open in the first two rounds. Jackson and Richardson are both really good quarterbacks, but I expect there will be good players at the position in the first, second and third rounds (maybe even re-drafting one of those guys). I think if you measure the combination of Nacua and a quarterback in one of those first three rounds, it will provide more pop than Jackson (or Richardson) and the receiver you might take in the same draft spot. By not giving up your first-round pick, you keep alive the possibility of maybe getting your hands on Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers or some other cool player.

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Question 14

It seems that our 12-team, standard scoring varies from FI. We give 1 point for every 25 passing yards (rather than 1 for every 20). And we subtract 2 points for fumbles and interceptions.

Tom Fowler (Colfax, WA)

It’s possible to customize the scoring to more closely match your league. Sign into the website and click on “Your Products”. Then find the link “Edit Your Scoring Profile”. Once on that page, click on the black box reading “Create A New Scoring System”. There will be a box reading, “Blank Scoring System”; drag down to the existing system most closely matches your league. Once you’re into the settings, make the necessary tweaks to the scoring system. (Though we don’t actually project individual fumbles; you’ll be on your own in that area.)

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Question 15

Long time, loyal subscriber. Is there a reason Kickers and Defenses no longer are listed in the “All” listings? It’s helpful knowing when to target those positions. If I know the FI team there’s a way and I’m not figuring it out. Thanks for the informative insights and always responding.

Carl Lahr (Palos Verdes Estates, CA)

To answer that question as best we can, let’s drill down and get a better feel for the lay of the land. If you’re in a league where the vast majority of teams are carrying just one at each of those positions, there will be plenty of opportunities to pick up top-5 production on the waiver wire. No need to make those positions a priority in that type of league. But if you’re in a league where there are no waiver moves, or where each team is required to carry two at each position, things get stickier. In that kind of format, you’d be giving more thought to the value of getting in earlier. We have some mechanisms in place to create a recommendation of where to slot kickers and defenses on the overall board. If you go to the “custom scoring setup” and pencil in how many defenses will be selected, and how many of those defenses are worth maybe going after before the end game of the draft, the software will factor in your answers, telling you how much the kickers and defenses would be worth in an auction (you can then compare those player values to the regular field players). In a general sense, it doesn’t look like a year to be going aggressively after either position. I think there are going to be some really good kickers available in the last couple of rounds. I think if you wait until there are two or three rounds left and select a kicker, there will be options there that you really like. At defense, there are no standout options, I think. There are flaws with all of the top candidates, as far as I can see. The 49ers and Ravens lost a lot of personnel. Baltimore lost its standout coordinator. The Jets have the kerfuffle with Haason Reddick they’re trying to resolve. The Browns got torched at the end of last year. Kansas City traded away cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. Not a year, I think, to be coming out of the gates first on a defense.

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