Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Can Justin Jefferson be an elite receiver without an elite quarterback? Derrick Henry running behind a lesser offensive line. A game plan for a Drauction. Why are DeVon Achane and Malik Nabers so low won the FFI board? And more.

Question 1

By most people’s standards, Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the league, and it’s hard to argue against it. Historically speaking, I can’t imagine there have been many (if any at all) receivers to finish top 3 at the position, with their respective quarterback finishing outside of the top 20. This is assuming that on a per-game basis (Darnold-McCarthy) finish outside the top 20. I would go as far to say a WR has probably not finished top 3 even with QB play outside of the top 15 in numbers. I’ve been hearing from a lot of people that Jefferson is an easy top 3 overall pick and I am having trouble taking him over guys such as Hill, Lamb, and even Chase or St. Brown. Are you able to look at the numbers and see if a WR like Jefferson is able to finish top 3 with suspected poor quarterback play?

Bill Copestick (Philadelphia)

I’m a Jefferson skeptic. He is right now the 5th receiver on my board (PPR scoring). But I will concede that he was almost as good last year after the Vikings dipped into their backup quarterbacks. In four full games with Kirk Cousins, Jefferson caught 33 passes for 543 yards and 3 TDs. In his four full games with other quarterbacks, he caught only 3 fewer passes (for 67 fewer yards, with 1 fewer touchdown). He wasn’t a disaster. But circling back to your question (which is a great one – thank you) I went through the list of wide receivers finishing with top-5 numbers in the 32-team era. Rather than using cumulative numbers (which penalizes guys who missed a few games) I went with the top-5 guys using per-game production, with a minimum of 10 starts. Regardless, I put together a list of 110 really good wide receivers of the last 22 seasons, then look at the team passing production for each of those teams (using standard scoring – 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards). Of those 110 wide receivers, 28 (about a quarter) came from teams that didn’t finish with top-10 passing numbers. Only eight came from teams that finished with below-average passing numbers (I’ve got them flagged with black dots), including only two that finished with bottom-10 passing numbers (double dots). The key here, is what you think of Kevin O’Connell. He was able to scheme up some productive passing games without Cousins last year. In the second half of the season, the Vikings (after the QB injury) averaged 261 passing yards, with 12 TD passes in nine games.

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Question 2

There is strong correlation between your preseason OL rankings, and your top 10 RB rankings. However, Baltimore's OL is ranked mediocre (3 starters from last year now gone), while you really like Henry. Is Henry's OL situation already baked into his projections? Or does he have additional OL risk that perhaps Barkley, Gibbs or CMC don’t have?

David Ellis (Longmont, CO)

It's a little unsettling. They’ve got some patching to do. But at the same time, it’s something they’ve been able to pull off in the past. And it can be argued that two of the three teams you mentioned lost players that are more impactful than all three of Baltimore’s guys. The Ravens, recall, didn’t lose Morgan Moses but instead chose to trade him. And John Simpson, while a starter last year, was released by the Raiders at the end of the 2022 season. Those guys pale in comparison with Jason Kelce (who retired) and Jonah Jackson (who signed a contract averaging $17 million with the Rams). The 49ers didn’t have any big losses, but their 36-year-old franchise left tackle is holding out.

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Question 3

What are your favorite areas of the draft as far as player draft values? I have a league mate very interested in moving up to pick 8 from 9 in the first round.

Garrett Seymour (New Glarus, WI)

Usually the projections work out to suggest that the earlier you pick the better. If you’re in that No. 1 slot, you’re at the head of the line for both the first and third rounds. By definition, those are more valuable rounds than the second and fourth (everyone selected in the second round was passed over in the first). You’re always a round ahead. But when we’re in the middle of the draft, my preference is to be in one of the middle spots. If you’re out on the end, it’s too long between picks, with the potential to never get a shot at a player who’s sliding in the draft. In the 12th spot, you could potentially have a player who should have been picked 20 spots before, but you never get a chance at him. You also have the dynamic of firing off picks in pairs, further reducing the ability to latch onto value-type players.

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Question 4

I’m relatively new to auctions and have placed middle of the pack my first two years. I love the custom scoring feature on the website and am regularly poring over FI’s articles, magazine, and custom rankings. I walk into my drafts feeling like I know a ton of information and having your custom rankings that help me know what which players I want (e.g. Amari Cooper can be had at a steep discount). However, most fantasy advice is tailored toward snake drafts/rounds. When I get into our auctions, how do I translate player tiers, recommended auction values, etc. into a winning bidding strategy? I struggle to know when to jump and when to pass. What advice do you have to help move my team from average to above average? For example, in a wide-open auction, do you recommend selecting a few high-valued players and the rest low cost, or take a more spread out approach to spending on players? Are there positions you prefer for your most expensive picks when you can bid on any player? What are good nominating strategies (should I nominate a target player like Cooper early so I know if I need to adjust or wait as long as possible so money is tighter for other managers)? It seems like there is a woeful lack of content focused on auctions across the industry, would love to have your insights!

Aaron Vander Vorst (West Fargo, ND)

You’ll get to open the bidding on one player per round. There’s a powerful spot, and it shouldn’t be wasted. The only way to secure a player for $1, after all, is to be the one who opens the bidding. So while it’s tempting to toss out names of players you know that others will be more valued by other owners, I prefer to work the underbelly of the roster early, focusing on kickers and defenses. I like to zero in on what I think will be the best players at those positions who’ll go for the $1 minimum. Most of the players at those positions will go for the $1 minimum, so it makes sense to get your early. For the first third or half of the auction, I suggest hanging back. For players at this stage, I will quickly toss out a bid where I would be excited to land the player (if a running back is “worth” $20 on your board, perhaps you bid $14-15), but I would be reluctant to pay full freight in the early going, unless it was a guy you were really high on. As the draft progresses, you’ll get a feel for what the other owners are doing. If everyone is wildly overspending, you can comfortably know that there will be a lot of good deals coming up. If the bidding is flat, you’ll have to respond by putting your foot on the gas, filling out your roster. It gets a little nerve-racking. The general goal is to acquire the most talent. You start with a payroll of $100. At the end of the auction, you’re hoping to be holding a roster of players that’s “worth” (according to your player values) maybe $130 or $140. Rushing out and spending $40 early on a $38 player doesn’t help to get you where you want to be.

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Question 5

My brother-in-law and I live in Puyallup and are long-time subscribers and fans. Do you ever go anywhere in Seattle to just watch games and run into guys who want to chat the whole time?

Matthew Hilditch (Puyallup, WA)

The last preseason Seahawks game I saw live was in the Kingdome in the ‘80s (against Miami). My preference is to work recordings of the games. I prefer to work with a copy of the boxscore available, serving as a roadmap for what’s coming (key plays and key players) and I prefer to have the ability to skip over commercials. Typically the only interaction I get when watching games is when Frades (our cat) starts walking in front of my monitor, letting me know that I’m spending too much time watching football.

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Question 6

Given that Travis Kelce turns 35 in October and more importantly may encounter more romantic distractions this year, isn’t projecting a steeper downgrade in order?

Albert Chapman (Las Vegas, NV)

His off-field activities are considerable. He’s got a podcast, he’s hosting 20 episodes of a television show, and he’s traveling the globe to attend his girlfriend’s concerts. I think there are other business interests and endorsements as well. You would think that would result in him cutting some corners in his off-field preparations. I think he’s also at the point in his career now where he’s a lot more interested in winning Super Bowls rather than putting up individual numbers. There may be more load management this season than we’ve seen in the past. But he’s still Travis Kelce. In PPR formats, his stats last year declined by over 20 percent, and he still finished with the best per-game numbers of anyone at this position.

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Question 7

Any idea on how the Chargers are going to structure their base offense? 2 running backs or 2 tight ends or 3 wide outs?

Richard Loppnow (Ephrata, WA)

I expect they’ll be using multiple tight ends on most plays. They signed both Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst. And I expect they’ll be using multiple backs, with Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins looking like the main guys right now. When Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman were working together in San Francisco, those teams had run-heavy offenses. They also pounded people at Stanford. Out of curiosity, I called up the preseason numbers for Harbaugh and Roman when they were with the 49ers. I wanted to see how much they worked on the run game in the preseason. Those teams in their first two seasons there ranked 3rd and 2nd in preseason rushing. If form holds, we’ll see some productive running from the Chargers in these upcoming practice games.

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Question 8

As always, love your updates and information. Would you mind elaborating on your rankings of a couple of players that have a rather large disparity in the FFPC Best Ball drafts. You seem to be much lower on Devon Achane and Malik Nabers. Achane is going by mid 2nd round and Nabers is going in the 4th round and seems to be climbing. Do you envision much change in your rankings in the coming weeks as you currently have them both somewhere in the 90-100 overall range and Achane barely in the top 30 for rb's and Nabers at the tail end of the top 50 in receivers.

WILL SAYRE (Sacramento, CA)

I have zero interest in Achane in the second round. He had a couple of awesome, historic games last year, but I don’t think we’re getting back to that. Miami has as three-man backfield, and I’m not confident Achane will even be the best guy on his own team. (I don’t see him getting many of the short-yardage touchdown runs). And the running game in general, I don’t think will be as good. Certain the line isn’t as good, with the Dolphins losing a key center and guard. Even last year, Miami averaged 204 rushing yards in a five-game stretch early, then just 111 yards the rest of the way. With Nabers, I believe he’ll be the most productive receiver on his team. I’m just not sure how good that team will be. Over the last two years, the Giants rank in the bottom 5 in passing yards and passing touchdowns. The ADP indicates Nabers will be going in front of Zay Flowers, Amari Cooper and George Pickens, and that’s just a non-starter for me.

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Question 9

For anybody who has done a Drauction. What is the best advice when you are doing an auction those first four rounds?

Nicole Giddings (Duluth, MN)

We tried a drauction last year, and clear majority of the league preferred it. Like a traditional auction, it gives everyone more control over the key players. You’re starting by auctioning off the top 48 players. But then you fall into a pleasant draft for the duration (and with a traditional 1 thru 12 order, rather than the wonky snake draft). With the drauction, the prep and decision making is simpler (with only 48 players at stake). The draft for the final three quarters of the players is a lot faster. And you get out of the cat-and-mouse game of trying to figure out whether you need to bid $1 or $2 on players. I’ve got just the one drauction on my resume, but it seems like a really nice format to me. It taps into the strengths of both the traditional draft and the full-fledged auction. As far as strategies, I would treat it just like an auction. There will be 48 players purchased. Make a guess at the best QB, RB, WR and TE who would be drafted about 40th. With everyone’s draft boards being different, let’s define those guys as being worth the $1.00 minimum. For the players in the top 39, measure how much more they will generate above and beyond those baseline guys. That will provide an estimate of what your projections indicate they are worth.

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Question 10

I am picking 9th in a dynasty league and my question is if I should target Caleb Williams if he’s available? I currently have Purdy and Herbert, but am concerned that Herbert’s value may be dropping. Would you replace him, or stick with him and target a skill player (I’m guessing availability of someone like McConkey, Coleman, Corum, Bowers)?

David Jung (San Francisco, CA)

Jim Harbaugh is going to be there for at least a few years, and he’s more interested in winning games than trying to put up big numbers. He had a first-round quarterback his last two years at Michigan, and they didn’t average 200 passing yards in either of those seasons. Herbert is a better quarterback than Caleb Williams. All 32 NFL teams would rather have Herbert than Williams. But for fantasy purposes over the next five years, I would think Williams will probably finish with better numbers. How your particular league is structured, with the valuing of quarterbacks, you are better situated to answer. Brock Bowers, as an example, would be one of the first half dozen tight ends selected in a typical dynasty league. But looking at just the quarterbacks, I would take Williams over Herbert.

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Question 11

I've been in a standard scoring league for 25 years. I am totally stuck between keeping Kupp or Kelce. What do think is probably the best direction?

chris soracco ()

I like Kupp. He’s 4 years younger, and I think he’ll be a notch more productive. (My projections indicate he’ll generate about 20 more points if both guys stay healthy.) Kupp had injury issues last year, but that’s not something that worries me much – right now, he’s looking healthy and ready to role. And Kupp plays the harder-to-fill position. If you protect Kelce, it reduces your ability in the draft to cash in if there’s a good tight end value available in the middle of the draft (and I think there will be, with tight ends being similar to quarterbacks, with each fantasy team starting only one).

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Question 12

My league's player selection is an auction ($200 budget). One of the ways I like to prepare for the upcoming auction is to look back at what players went for last season. With the context that consensus stud QBs went in the $40s, stud RBs & WRs went around $70, and the top TE went in the $60s. Should I be planning to avoid spending on the ultra-expensive guys, comfortably knowing that there will be tremendous bargains will show for those who remain patient with their funds.

Greg Resin (Palos Verdes Estates, CA)

I skimmed over the list of players that was included with the question. (There were too many to publish – would take up too much space. But I saw some in there that were definitely underpriced. DJ Moore ($17), David Montgomery ($10), Isiah Pacheco ($11), Dak Prescott ($5), Brandon Aiyuk ($12), Kirk Cousins ($5) and Sam LaPorta ($1), along with some less glaring examples. These weren’t players who came out of the woodwork. These guys performed like we all thought they would in the preseason. So it seems to me, from a distance, that the majority of owners in your league are going top-heavy with roster construction – the old stars-and-scrubs model. So I would think you would be able to put together one of the best teams by being willing to sit out that feeding frenzy. You probably won’t have a top-20 player on your roster, but you would then collect a large number of the next 30 or so. You’ll be picking up a bunch of such players for about half of what they’re actually, and should result in your having the strongest overall team. If you go down such a road, make sure you spend all your money. (Don’t wind up with $15 at the end, realizing you could have also purchased Dalton Kincaid.) And recognize that you’ll be picking up some players in September (you don’t want the last player on your roster to be a decent $4 backup). The overall structure of the league is important. I have played in 12-team PPR leagues where pretty much all viable pass catchers are purchased. It’s hard to find a suitable fill-in on the waiver wire. In our 12-team TD-only league, however, it’s easier to find warm-body guys who can step in and start. In the TD-only league, the name of the game is find those difference-maker guys, making it more logical to bid aggressively in August.

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Question 13

I have the 2nd pick in a half-PPR league. It seems all signs point to taking CeeDee Lamb over Breece Hall. You see any fault in my thinking?

Patrick LaMendola (Penfield, NY)

San Francisco has a running back who’s pretty good, Christian McCaffrey. He’d merit strong consideration. I’ve got Lamb at No. 2 on my board for now, but I suppose it’s reasonable to start pondering how we might value him if he’s still not around in September. (The No. 2 receiver on my board, Ja’Marr Chase, also isn’t practicing.) Hall and Bijan Robinson look like the other franchise backs in this format.

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Question 14

How would you rank the three Packers receivers, the three Texans receivers, and the three Bills receivers relative to their teammates?

Brendan May ()

With all three teams, I think there will be differing opinions on the ordering of the top 3. I will take Jayden Reed, Nico Collins and Khalil Shakir as the top guys for now, but with each team, it’s probably more likely one of the other receivers will sneak into the top spot.

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