I’m out on the Patriots. I struggled through their game against Philadelphia. I’m confident they’re going to be right near the bottom of the barrel in the upcoming season, and I think that takes their offense out of play almost entirely.
Seven times in the last three years, offenses have scored 25 or fewer touchdowns. (The Jets and Panthers combined for only 38 TDs last year). New England is looking like one of those kind of teams, making it an uphill climb for anybody on that roster to finish with decent numbers.
Jacoby Brissett has played effectively with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt in the past. (In Cleveland, Brissett was more effective than Deshaun Watson two years ago.) But Brissett has been pretty awful in both of the preseason games, looking like he might be pulled for Drake Maye before October.
Rhamondre Stevenson is at least a defined starting running back, with some nominal value. He has a pulse. And maybe they can get Hunter Henry (who didn’t play last night) set up, catching a few short passes. But these aren’t guys you want to be relying on.
At wide receiver, they have a host of lesser bodies (underscored by their attempts at trading for Brandon Aiyuk). Probably Pop Douglas or second-rounder Ja’Lynn Polk will be their leading receiver. Polk hasn’t been much of a factor in the preseason, catching 5 passes around the line of scrimmage for 20 yards. (He looked at little better last night, seemingly open on a potential long ball and making two guys miss on a 6-yard play last year). But you take Douglas or Polk, and it’s with the hope that maybe things align to get you a top-60 receiver.
On the lesser team front, I decided to take a look back at previous teams of this sort, giving a general idea of what fair expectations are.
In the last 10 years, there have been 23 teams that have won fewer than 4 games. And from those teams, there have been a lot more hits than misses for fantasy purposes.
At quarterback, I see two quarterbacks of much note. Blake Bortles ranking 7th in overall production in 2016 and Justin Fields running his way to being the 11th-best quarterback two years ago. Only two other quarterbacks on these 23 teams managed to sneak into the top 20 statistically.
| BEST QUARTERBACKS ON CRAPPY TEAMS (last 10 yrs) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | W-L | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | PPR | Rk |
| 2016 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | (3-13) | 16 | 3905 | 23 | 16 | 359 | 3 | 354.2 | 7 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | (3-14) | 15 | 2242 | 17 | 11 | 1143 | 8 | 344.4 | 11 |
| 2022 | Davis Mills, Hou. | (3-13-1) | 15 | 3118 | 17 | 15 | 108 | 2 | 248.7 | 19 |
| 2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | (3-13) | 16 | 3270 | 21 | 12 | 92 | 0 | 256.7 | 20 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | (3-13) | 13 | 2908 | 11 | 17 | 419 | 0 | 233.3 | 21 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | (3-14) | 17 | 3641 | 12 | 17 | 334 | 2 | 279.5 | 22 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | (3-13) | 12 | 2818 | 19 | 10 | 252 | 2 | 271.2 | 22 |
| 2019 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | (2-14) | 13 | 3494 | 16 | 14 | 73 | 4 | 274.6 | 22 |
| 2017 | DeShone Kizer, Cle. | (0-16) | 15 | 2894 | 11 | 22 | 419 | 5 | 260.6 | 22 |
| 2021 | Jared Goff, Det. | (3-13-1) | 14 | 3245 | 19 | 8 | 87 | 0 | 255.0 | 23 |
| 2017 | Eli Manning, NYG | (3-13) | 15 | 3468 | 19 | 13 | 26 | 1 | 258.0 | 23 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | (2-15) | 16 | 2877 | 11 | 10 | 253 | 0 | 217.2 | 23 |
At running back, I see three who finished with top-10 numbers (using PPR scoring): James Robinson (remarkably, an undrafted rookie), David Johnson and Jordan Howard. So it can be done. But we’re talking about a pool of 23 teams.
Only five other running backs ranked higher than 24th statistically. So about two thirds of these teams didn’t have a running back ranking in the top 23. (With four backs finishing 24th or 25th, an optimist might argue that just over half of these teams finished with a top-25 back.)
| BEST RUNNING BACKS ON CRAPPY TEAMS (last 10 yrs) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | W-L | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | (1-15) | 1070 | 344 | 1414 | 10 | 252.4 | 7 |
| 2018 | David Johnson, Ari. | (3-13) | 940 | 446 | 1386 | 10 | 250.6 | 9 |
| 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | (3-13) | 1313 | 298 | 1611 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
| 2017 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | (0-16) | 348 | 693 | 1041 | 7 | 220.1 | 11 |
| 2019 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | (2-14) | 1137 | 287 | 1424 | 8 | 225.4 | 13 |
| 2016 | Isaiah Crowell, Cle. | (1-15) | 952 | 319 | 1271 | 7 | 209.1 | 14 |
| 2021 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | (3-13-1) | 617 | 452 | 1069 | 7 | 210.9 | 15 |
| 2016 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | (2-14) | 988 | 163 | 1151 | 9 | 198.1 | 18 |
| 2022 | David Montgomery, Chi. | (3-14) | 801 | 316 | 1117 | 6 | 181.7 | 24 |
| 2021 | James Robinson, Jac. | (3-14) | 767 | 222 | 989 | 8 | 177.9 | 24 |
| 2015 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | (3-13) | 379 | 534 | 913 | 2 | 164.3 | 24 |
| 2022 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | (3-13-1) | 939 | 165 | 1104 | 5 | 170.4 | 25 |
| 2023 | Chuba Hubbard, Car. | (2-15) | 902 | 233 | 1135 | 5 | 182.5 | 28 |
| 2019 | Adrian Peterson, Was. | (3-13) | 898 | 142 | 1040 | 5 | 151.0 | 32 |
| 2016 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | (1-15) | 358 | 514 | 872 | 1 | 146.2 | 32 |
| 2017 | Isaiah Crowell, Cle. | (0-16) | 853 | 182 | 1035 | 2 | 145.5 | 32 |
| 2015 | Isaiah Crowell, Cle. | (3-13) | 706 | 182 | 888 | 5 | 137.8 | 33 |
| 2016 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | (3-13) | 465 | 312 | 777 | 2 | 139.7 | 34 |
| 2017 | Orleans Darkwa, NYG | (3-13) | 751 | 116 | 867 | 5 | 137.7 | 36 |
| 2014 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | (3-13) | 534 | 212 | 746 | 2 | 122.6 | 36 |
| 2014 | Denard Robinson, Jac. | (3-13) | 582 | 124 | 706 | 4 | 117.6 | 38 |
| 2014 | Bobby Rainey, T.B. | (2-14) | 406 | 315 | 721 | 2 | 117.1 | 40 |
At wide receiver, top-50 numbers would make a guy roster-worthy in a lot of formats. I see 25 hitting that threshold – about one per team. Only five with top-20 numbers, with another six making the top 30.
| BEST RECEIVERS ON CRAPPY TEAMS (last 10 yrs) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | W-L | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2019 | Kenny Golladay, Det. | (3-12-1) | 65 | 1190 | 11 | 250.0 | 9 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | (2-14) | 68 | 1051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
| 2023 | Adam Thielen, Car. | (2-15) | 103 | 1014 | 4 | 231.0 | 17 |
| 2019 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | (2-14) | 90 | 1046 | 5 | 226.9 | 17 |
| 2016 | Terrelle Pryor, Cle. | (1-15) | 77 | 1007 | 5 | 213.9 | 20 |
| 2021 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | (3-13-1) | 90 | 912 | 6 | 227.3 | 22 |
| 2018 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | (3-13) | 69 | 734 | 6 | 186.0 | 26 |
| 2016 | Allen Robinson, Jac. | (3-13) | 73 | 883 | 6 | 199.3 | 26 |
| 2019 | Marvin Jones, Det. | (3-12-1) | 62 | 779 | 9 | 193.9 | 28 |
| 2015 | Travis Benjamin, Cle. | (3-13) | 68 | 966 | 6 | 201.8 | 28 |
| 2019 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | (3-13) | 58 | 919 | 7 | 191.9 | 30 |
| 2014 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | (2-14) | 70 | 1002 | 2 | 182.2 | 33 |
| 2021 | Marvin Jones, Jac. | (3-14) | 73 | 832 | 4 | 180.2 | 34 |
| 2016 | Cameron Meredith, Chi. | (3-13) | 66 | 888 | 4 | 183.5 | 38 |
| 2014 | James Jones, Oak. | (3-13) | 73 | 666 | 6 | 175.6 | 38 |
| 2020 | Jamison Crowder, NYJ | (2-14) | 59 | 699 | 6 | 172.5 | 39 |
| 2016 | Marqise Lee, Jac. | (3-13) | 63 | 851 | 4 | 180.6 | 40 |
| 2014 | Kendall Wright, Ten. | (2-14) | 57 | 715 | 6 | 169.9 | 41 |
| 2017 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | (3-13) | 59 | 731 | 2 | 144.5 | 42 |
| 2020 | Laviska Shenault, Jac. | (1-15) | 58 | 600 | 5 | 157.1 | 46 |
| 2020 | Keelan Cole, Jac. | (1-15) | 55 | 642 | 6 | 155.4 | 47 |
| 2022 | Brandin Cooks, Hou. | (3-13-1) | 57 | 699 | 3 | 145.6 | 49 |
| 2019 | Danny Amendola, Det. | (3-12-1) | 62 | 678 | 1 | 140.8 | 49 |
| 2014 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | (3-13) | 51 | 677 | 6 | 154.7 | 49 |
| 2020 | DJ Chark, Jac. | (1-15) | 53 | 706 | 5 | 153.6 | 49 |
I’m seeing the best stats at tight end, with five finishing with top-10 numbers and another six finishing in the top 20. I think of Brissett having some success with in the past with guys like Jack Doyle and David Njoku, and it seems possible that Hunter Henry might finish with top-20 stats this year. I don’t expect to be selecting Henry, but I could envision the possibility of settling for him as my backup tight end in a league.
Henry didn’t play in last night’s game, but Brissett tried to jam a ball to Austin Hooper in the end zone last night. (The throw was a little late and picked off, so are we putting that down as a positive or a negative?)
| BEST TIGHT ENDS ON CRAPPY TEAMS (last 10 yrs) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | W-L | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2015 | Delanie Walker, Ten. | (3-13) | 94 | 1088 | 6 | 244.4 | 3 |
| 2015 | Gary Barnidge, Cle. | (3-13) | 79 | 1043 | 9 | 237.3 | 4 |
| 2017 | Evan Engram, NYG | (3-13) | 64 | 722 | 6 | 173.6 | 5 |
| 2014 | Delanie Walker, Ten. | (2-14) | 63 | 890 | 4 | 176.0 | 8 |
| 2022 | Cole Kmet, Chi. | (3-14) | 50 | 544 | 7 | 147.3 | 9 |
| 2021 | T.J. Hockenson, Det. | (3-13-1) | 61 | 583 | 4 | 145.3 | 15 |
| 2014 | Mychal Rivera, Oak. | (3-13) | 58 | 534 | 4 | 135.4 | 16 |
| 2022 | Jordan Akins, Hou. | (3-13-1) | 37 | 495 | 5 | 118.5 | 18 |
| 2019 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | (2-14) | 43 | 436 | 3 | 106.6 | 19 |
| 2016 | Gary Barnidge, Cle. | (1-15) | 55 | 612 | 2 | 130.2 | 19 |
| 2016 | Zach Miller, Chi. | (3-13) | 47 | 486 | 4 | 119.6 | 20 |
| 2017 | David Njoku, Cle. | (0-16) | 32 | 386 | 4 | 94.7 | 24 |
| 2020 | Tyler Eifert, Jac. | (1-15) | 36 | 349 | 2 | 82.9 | 28 |
| 2018 | Ricky Seals-Jones, Ari. | (3-13) | 34 | 343 | 1 | 74.3 | 29 |
| 2016 | Vance McDonald, S.F. | (2-14) | 24 | 391 | 4 | 87.1 | 30 |
| 2017 | Seth Devalve, Cle. | (0-16) | 33 | 395 | 1 | 78.5 | 30 |
—Ian Allan