The Bengals are back in action today, and I will be interested to see what they do with Jermaine Burton. He’s the third-round pick who had 37- and 38-yard catches in the last three minutes of their preseason opener.
That’s a nice start for Burton (pictured). They drafted him, I think, to replace Tee Higgins next year, and that’s how it’s looking like it will play out. Higgins is playing this year under the franchise tag, but I don’t think they’ll be able to keep him.
But what kind of role Burton has for 2024, I think, is still up in the air. The Bengals have other veteran receivers, who might fit into the offense more effectively in the short term. Trenton Irwin and Andrei Iosivas have the advantage of having been around, with a better command of the offense and what Joe Burrow is looking for.
There have been times the last two years where I’ve wondered if Irwin were better than Tyler Boyd. Irwin had a really nice catch early in the preseason opener against the Bucs.
Iosivas, meanwhile, has been the pass-catching story of Cincinnati’s camp. He worked with the first-unit offense in the preseason opener, catching the only ball thrown his way (a 23-yarder). Iosivas was a sixth-round pick a year ago. He didn’t play much as a rookie but caught 5 passes for 36 yards and 2 TDs in a Week 18 game against Cleveland.
My leaning is that for now (especially early in the season), the Bengals will be more comfortable with their veteran receivers. I think Burrow, at least for now, probably has more trust that Iosivas is going to be where he’s supposed to be.
But Burton has some talent, and I expect they’ll be trying to use him more today, giving him increased reps earlier in the game.
With Iosivas, the question is whether he can both carve out a role and put up viable numbers. That will be difficult, particularly if both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are in the lineup.
While my personal short-term leaning here is to go with Iosivas, the historical numbers indicate Burton makes more sense. He’s a third-round pick, and third-round picks tend to be a lot more productive than sixth-round picks (even if they’re not as experienced).
No sixth-round wide receiver in the last 10 years, in fact, has finished with top-60 numbers in his second season. That’s been done 10 times by rookie receivers selected in the third round.
In the chart below, you’re looking at a mashup of receivers drafted in the third and sixth rounds. For the sixth-round picks (tagged with black dots) you’re seeing their production in Year 2 of their career. For the third-rounders, you’re seeing their rookie stats.
There are 20 wide receivers listed. They’re the ones who finished in the top 80 (using PPR scoring). Of these 20, over twice as many (14-6) were third-round receivers).
Everyone once in a blue moon a great receiver shows up in the sixth round. If we go back further than 10 years, Antonio Brown and Pierre Garcon were sixth-round picks. (But Iosivas definitely isn’t another Brown and almost certainly won’t be a Garcon, either). The talent level tends to be much higher in the third round.
| THIRD- VS. SIXTH-ROUND PICKS (last 10 years) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2019 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 58 | 919 | 15.8 | 7 | 191.9 | 30 |
| 2017 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 62 | 869 | 14.0 | 5 | 178.9 | 25 |
| 2016 | • Quincy Enunwa, NYJ | 58 | 857 | 14.8 | 4 | 168.9 | 45 |
| 2015 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 51 | 664 | 13.0 | 6 | 167.4 | 41 |
| 2019 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 59 | 680 | 11.5 | 5 | 167.1 | 39 |
| 2023 | Tank Dell, Hou. | 47 | 709 | 15.1 | 7 | 165.0 | 39 |
| 2023 | Josh Downs, Ind. | 68 | 771 | 11.3 | 2 | 157.1 | 44 |
| 2014 | John Brown, Ari. | 48 | 696 | 14.5 | 5 | 147.0 | 53 |
| 2021 | • Quez Watkins, Phil. | 43 | 647 | 15.1 | 1 | 116.0 | 61 |
| 2020 | • Travis Fulgham, Phil. | 38 | 539 | 14.2 | 4 | 115.9 | 66 |
| 2023 | Michael Wilson, Ari. | 38 | 565 | 14.9 | 3 | 114.5 | 60 |
| 2021 | • Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cle. | 34 | 597 | 17.6 | 3 | 111.7 | 63 |
| 2020 | • Scott Miller, T.B. | 33 | 501 | 15.2 | 3 | 102.5 | 73 |
| 2019 | • Russell Gage, Atl. | 49 | 446 | 9.1 | 1 | 100.8 | 70 |
| 2018 | TreQuan Smith, N.O. | 28 | 427 | 15.3 | 5 | 100.7 | 73 |
| 2018 | Michael Gallup, Dall. | 33 | 507 | 15.4 | 2 | 97.7 | 78 |
| 2014 | Donte Moncrief, Ind. | 32 | 444 | 13.9 | 3 | 96.1 | 79 |
| 2017 | Kenny Golladay, Det. | 28 | 477 | 17.0 | 3 | 94.6 | 70 |
| 2021 | Joshua Palmer, LAC | 33 | 353 | 10.7 | 4 | 92.9 | 76 |
| 2017 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 34 | 525 | 15.4 | 1 | 92.5 | 72 |
—Ian Allan