Talking with a Patriots fan friend a few weeks ago, I said that I thought New England would be terrible on offense (as Ian discussed here a couple of days ago) but still have a good defense, probably playing a lot of 17-13 games. Based on recent developments, that was probably too optimistic.
First defensive tackle Christian Barmore, their best lineman a year ago, was diagnosed with blood clots, putting his status going forward in doubt. Barmore led the team with 8.5 sacks and his 64 tackles led all Patriots linemen. It doesn't sound like he'll be playing at all this season, at least reading between the lines of recent reporting. The Patriots had another player, David Andrews, miss the 2019 season with the same diagnosis.
This past week, they traded pass rusher Matt Judon (pictured) to Atlanta. Judon was looking for a raise and presumably the Patriots didn't want to pay a 32-year-old linebacker big bucks in what's looking like an ugly season for a rebuilding team. But he's been a force the last three years for the Patriots, with 32 sacks in 38 games. Now he'll be taking his talents to the Falcons.
So that's arguably New England's two best defensive players from the past several years, who won't be available in 2024. And Bill Belichick has some sort of media gig lined up. It's truly the end of an era.
The Patriots haven't looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders for several years now, but they've had a top defense (fantasy or otherwise) for a long time. Just looking at the last decade, they've one of the best in several key metrics.
Looking at just the 2014-2023 timeframe, New England has allowed under 19 points per game. That's tops in the league over the last 10 years. In that same period, they rank 4th in yards allowed, and 4th in fantasy scoring (1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways, 6 for defensive touchdowns). Nobody else has ranked in the top 5 in all three areas. Only the Ravens, Bills and Steelers have come particularly close.
Table below shows average defensive rank in each of those three areas over the past 10 years, sorted by points allowed.
| TEAM DEFENSE, 2014-2023 (AVG RANK) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Pts | Yds | FF |
| New England | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Baltimore | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Buffalo | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Kansas City | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| Seattle | 6 | 17 | 14 |
| Dallas | 7 | 8 | 12 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| Denver | 9 | 3 | 15 |
| LA Rams | 10 | 16 | 5 |
| Green Bay | 11 | 15 | 21 |
| Cincinnati | 12 | 29 | 30 |
| San Francisco | 13 | 5 | 25 |
| New Orleans | 14 | 13 | 18 |
| Philadelphia | 15 | 18 | 2 |
| Tennessee | 16 | 20 | 28 |
| Chicago | 17 | 9 | 23 |
| Houston | 18 | 23 | 17 |
| LA Chargers | 19 | 11 | 24 |
| Arizona | 20 | 14 | 13 |
| Indianapolis | 21 | 25 | 9 |
| Carolina | 22 | 7 | 16 |
| Tampa Bay | 23 | 21 | 10 |
| Jacksonville | 24 | 24 | 19 |
| NY Giants | 25 | 32 | 20 |
| Atlanta | 26 | 31 | 31 |
| NY Jets | 27 | 10 | 29 |
| Cleveland | 28 | 22 | 26 |
| Miami | 29 | 26 | 11 |
| Washington | 30 | 27 | 22 |
| Detroit | 31 | 30 | 27 |
| Las Vegas | 32 | 28 | 32 |
It's widely acknowledged that New England will likely struggle on offense this year. These recent developments aren't good signs for their defense. New head coach Jerod Mayo has his work cut out for him.
Initially, I was concerned about how low this defense showed up in the rankings. I was kicking around looking for ways to nudge them higher, out of respect for two decades of excellence. They've seemed to play hard in their first two exhibitions. But I don't know where the sacks are going to come from, and certainly the days of them benefitting from six games against lesser offenses across the AFC East appear to be over. I hate to pile on, but it could be a tough year all around in Foxborough.
--Andy Richardson