We all love a good discount. Picture this hypothetical: It's the seventh round, and your 81st overall pick will be on the clock shortly. You desperately need a tight end, and somehow the tight end ranked 60th overall just keeps sliding toward you, keeps sliding... and then miraculously he's there for you, 21 spots back of book. Awesome, right?
Wrong: This hypothetical scenario was a real one from last year, and it was in my most bitterly contentious redraft league... and the tight end was Kyle Pitts. An extreme example to be sure (and don't worry, I got Sam LaPorta late), but a reminder that ADP ain't nothing but a number. And that truism can saw both ways: sometimes taking a guy two or three spots ahead of where consensus says he should go is the discount. At least, that's what I'm telling myself after trading Gibbs and Higgins for Achane and Rashee Rice in that same league this year...
Drafting players at ADP is always fine, but it's especially fine if you can make a compelling case that they are more likely to beat that ADP than they are to undercut it. Below is a quick cross-section of names based on an index (heh) of RTSports, Yahoo and Sleeper ADPs as of today that I would not hesitate to call out on draft night; for me these guys' current price tags are closer to their floors than their ceilings.
NOTE: These rounds presume 12-team league size, ADPs presume half-PPR scoring.
FIRST ROUND
Early: Justin Jefferson
Current ADP: 5.7, WR3
Yahoo: 7 | Sleeper: 4 | RTSports: 6
The only thing keeping Jefferson from a return to his 2023 status as the consensus WR1 by ADP is Sam Darnold, and we are fine with Darnold this year (for fantasy purposes, anyway). Jefferson has been on another plane of statistical existence from all receivers since The Great One pretty much from the moment he first arrived in Minnesota, and for added appeal franchise tight end-and-possible-real-life-viking T.J. Hockenson is probably going to miss the first four weeks of the season on the PUP list, unlocking yet more volume for Jefferson. If you play in a PPR league and he makes it to you with the fourth or fifth pick, rejoice. If he somehow falls further than that to you, try to contain your laughter.
Late: Saquon Barkley
Current ADP: 10.3, RB5
Yahoo: 12 | Sleeper: 12 | RTSports: 9
Similar argument to the one propping up Jefferson for me: One of the great talents in the league at his position being penalized for who his quarterback happens to be. While the fear that Jalen Hurts will partially cannibalize Barkley's goal line work is valid, there's a parallel here to the 2022 trade that sent Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers: Generational talent toils for years on bad team, then gets both a 'homecoming' (McCaffrey went to Stanford and had some ties to head coach Kyle Shanahan that you may remember; Barkley grew up in Pennsylvania's Lehigh Valley and went to Penn State) and entry into one of the league's premier rushing attacks.
Barkley isn't quite Maximus Meridius returning to Rome, but he's close to it. Nothing short of true calamity keeps Barkley from a top six finish among his positional peers, and he could easily push McCaffrey for the RB1 crown.
SECOND ROUND
Early: Garrett Wilson
Current ADP: 12.0, WR7
Yahoo: 11 | Sleeper: 13 | RTSports: 12
Gonna cheat a tad here, since Garrett is currently rocking a 12.0 ADP but is tied with Jahmyr Gibbs, and since Gibbs' ADP should now recover a little with him trending toward being a full go for the season opener that would squeeze Wilson to 13th overall. And while Wilson does bear a Jets' logo that is often regarded as a scarlet letter in fantasy football (full disclosure: it was the reason I went with Justin Jefferson over Breece Hall), the early second round is currently littered with the likes of Puka Nacua, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kyren Williams, guys who all scare the daylights out of me. Garrett Wilson has proven to us that he can make his team get him the rock at that rarified 30% target share clip, and he has a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers that has a very strong track record of funneling targets to his top guy. Barring injury and/or general Jets-iness, Wilson pays off here.
Late: Drake London
Current ADP: 24.0, WR11
Yahoo: 29 | Sleeper: 19 | RTSports: 24
Ah yes, the great 'I say I think Arthur Smith was the problem, yet I don't trust Drake London', logic catch-22 dilemma. And I get it, it's inherently unnerving to be drafting a player that is going into year 3 without a top-30 finish in either of his first two seasons. But the Falcons followed up an absolutely pitiful 2022 that saw them finish 31st in the league in passing with a 21st-place finish that was propped up by multiple quarterbacking dumpster fires leaguewide. Drake London's produced 1.24 fantasy points per target through two seasons, a number that is actually higher than Garrett Wilson (1.08) and even tops the 1.15 mark Nico Collins posted through his first two years of similarly ruinous quarterback play. Either Kirk Cousins gets hurt and Michael Penix falls on his face as the injury stand-in or Drake London catches 90 passes this year, there is no Option C here.
THIRD ROUND
Early: Josh Jacobs
Current ADP: 24.7, RB12
Yahoo: 25 | Sleeper: 22 | RTSports: 28
I'm again cutting it a little fine here, as Jacobs is going right around the 2nd/3rd round turn in most 12-team drafts and I just took him at 3.01 in the Fantasy Index Redraft Circuit, but there's enough Jacobs skepticism that I want to get on record with it now: like Barkley before him, Jacobs was a juggernaut in 2022 before the mediocrity around him torpedoed his 2023. The case for Jacobs almost makes itself. Assuming mutual good health, there is a razor thin set of scenarios where Isiah Pacheco (current ADP: 22.0) outproduces him in my book, and a much wider range of ones where Jacobs buries him.
Late: Cooper Kupp
Current ADP: 35.0, WR17
Yahoo: 33 | Sleeper: 39 | RTSports: 33
I will say that if you're of a mind to get an elite, established quarterback at the back end of the third and Mahomes (ADP: 31.7) or Hurts (31.7) are sitting there, I'm fine with that too - since Kupp is about the only other name that really jumps off the page here right now. And yes, sure - age, injury risk, all that jazz. I get it. But Kupp might not get hurt at all, and even if he does he might not be hurt specifically during your fantasy playoffs, and if you come barreling down the home stretch with a healthy trio of Barkley, Garrett Wilson and Kupp leading the charge you should be in good shape, as current best guesses are that he and Nacua battle to a draw for target share - with the tie going to the elder statesman. Potential league winner here.
FOURTH ROUND
Early: DK Metcalf
Current ADP: 39.0, WR20
Yahoo: 38 | Sleeper: 41 | RTSports: 38
This is a tougher call, as Metcalf is currently coming off the shelf around players like Kupp, Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman, Stefon Diggs and DJ Moore, all guys to whom I'm very partial. But four of those guys have major target share question marks, while Pittman has dual passing volume and 'ability to score touchdowns' concerns. DK Metcalf was an elite redzone converter with Russell Wilson, the Seahawks figure to go pass heavier under the new regime, and that new regime stepped off the plane raving about having DK Metcalf in the fold. He could easily obliterate a draft slot anywhere near this part of the board.
Late: Joe Mixon
Current ADP: 41.0, RB15
Yahoo: 36 | Sleeper: 43 | RTSports: 44
It's hard to not be able to go with D.J. Moore here, but his current 39.3 ADP forbids it. We are also starting to need another RB here, especially if we missed on Josh Jacobs earlier and didn't have the stomach for De'Von Achane. Enter Joe Mixon, a port in the storm that is this "RB Dead Zone" everyone keeps murmuring about. And full disclosure: I'm no Mixon advocate historically, even making some sport of pillorying him in the Chase Brown video back in the 48 hours or so leading up to his dismissal from the Queen City. But his years of inefficiency, his sneaky high odometer (#3 on the career touches leaderboard among active players, trailing only Zeke and Derrick Henry) - none of it matters here. What does matter is that the Texans and OC wunderkind Bobby Slowik love him, and with a refreshing absence of competition for touches Mixon enjoys access to all three downs for an offense vying to be the league's very best in 2024. Get him.
FIFTH ROUND
Early: Anthony Richardson
Current ADP: 49.0, QB6
Yahoo: 44 | Sleeper: 53 | RTSports: 50
Okay, this one is definitely not for everyone. Heck, I'm not even sure that it's for me, as I'm as committed as ever to the late QB strategy in 1QB leagues. And I will most definitely point out that Trey McBride (47.3), Mark Andrews (49.0), and Dalton Kincaid (52.3) are all going around this point and are all great buys for people who want to take a stab at getting fantasy's top TE in 2024 without paying LaPorta/Kelce prices to try. But in especially competitive leagues where you need to try to find weekly difference makers, Richardson is the rare talent worth taking a swing so hard at you come out of your cleats. He's a physical freak, the small sample size last year suggested 30 total TDs is maybe his 17-game floor, and the upside is Lamar Jackson's 2019 Vaporization Tour. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts create a weekly advantage for their owners, and Richardson is the last QB that can conceivably match their per game clip.
Late: James Conner
Current ADP: 58.3, RB19
Yahoo: 58 | Sleeper: 59 | RTSports: 58
Another challenging sequence here, as Joe Burrow is coming off the board around here after going a solid round or so earlier in 2023, and Ian Allen is most definitely in on the Bengals. David Montgomery is also going right around here in drafts and is coming off of a 13-touchdown season that his owners very much appreciated, but he steadily hemorrhaged production in the second half to pesky rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Perhaps the fear that the same fate awaits Conner is suppressing Conner's price, as the Cardinals did make Trey Benson the second running back selected in this year's draft. I don't buy it: HC Jonathan Gannon doesn't sound like he could pick Trey Benson out of a lineup yet, Conner's better than David Montgomery and the Cardinals offensive line very possibly can't stand up to too many Kyler dropbacks. If the Cardinals can spray their facility for injury bugs then Conner is just about FDIC insured this fall in my book.
SIXTH ROUND
Early: Kyle Pitts
Current ADP: 63.7, TE7
Yahoo: 60 | Sleeper: 61 | RTSports: 70
I'll be brutally honest here: Picking at this part of the board is pretty miserable right now. There isn't anyone from 61-68 (Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Zamir White) that I have a lot of conviction on, plus Burrow, George Pickens and Tee Higgins are just out of range here, having typically gone a few picks before. If one of those guys slides to you here then I'd say go with them, but failing that: Yeah, I believe that Kirk Cousins is going to complete 400-425 passes. Drake London should be able to process 100 of those, and even if you give Darnell Mooney 70-75, that's still a big shortfall. You'll definitely hear it from your league mates if you do it, but Cousins' volume creates a real floor for the primary pass catchers here and Pitts is safer than people dare admit to themselves this year.
I think.
Late: Christian Kirk
Current ADP: 71.3, WR31
Yahoo: 78 | Sleeper: 67 | RTSports: 69
Is Christian Kirk the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy football right now? It sure seems like it. He apparently does not offer a lot of sex appeal, but here's the facts: Kirk followed up an 1100-yard, eight-touchdown season that saw him finish as the WR11 in 2022 by outpacing Calvin Ridley in both targets and receiving yards as the WR23 before a... ah, deeply unfortunate week 13 injury ended his season. Guys who miss the fantasy playoffs are often afterthoughts in drafts the following year, but Kirk's Calvin Ridley problem has been alleviated and while Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. arrive to take his place, I don't see either of them pushing Kirk as the Jags' reception leader. Also, note that Kirk's Yahoo ADP is especially low, so you can probably sit on him even later there.
I'm honor bound to mention that Jordan Love is my other quarterback I am willing to break my QB fast for early in drafts this year, and he comes off the board right around here. You can get him later than this, as Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray are often going right before him so they can generally be your canaries in the coal mine on Love, but if they're gone and he's here I'd pull the trigger.
SEVENTH ROUND
Early: Rashee Rice
Current ADP: 81.0, WR34
Yahoo: 85 | Sleeper: 81 | RTSports: 77
This one is an absolute layup. Rice closed his rookie season on an absolute tear, and the excitement that was building for him in the spring was palpable. One vehicular felony and first round rookie wide receiver as his new teammate later and Rashee Rice can be had for pennies on the dollar of where we were anticipating having to draft him five months ago. Rice is the presumptive #1 wide receiver for Patrick Mahomes and is coming off of a truly dominant rookie season that helped make the Chiefs the champs. Block out the rest of the noise (ain't no way he's getting suspended any time soon, folks) and buy this dip.
Late: David Njoku
Current ADP: 88.7, TE10
Yahoo: 87 | Sleeper: 87 | RTSports: 92
Let's get the obvious stuff out of the way:
"He was only good with Flacco!" (Utterly false, by the way)
"He was a fantasy disappointment for years!"
"I don't believe in Deshaun Watson!" (Hey, me neither)
"They fired the offensive coordinator from last year!"
"Jerry Jeudy is there now!"
Okay, now that you've presumably gotten all that out of your system, here's the facts: It was widely known for years that Njoku was criminally underutilized by the Browns, as the advanced stats had christened him a 7-Eleven guy years ago because he's just always open.
Evan Engram led all tight ends in targets last year with 143. Zach Ertz set the targets record for tight ends back in 2018 with 156. Over his 11-game stretch to close 2023, during which Njoku was the TE1 in fantasy, Njoku put up a 156.1-target pace. This was the Browns apologizing to David Njoku, Browns fans, and the fantasy community for their past dunderheadedness. And while the Browns did in fact dismiss OC Alex Van Pelt, HC Kevin Stefanski was their playcaller last year and will reprise that role again in 2024. 'Njoku was only good because of Joe Flacco' makes a lot less sense to me than 'Wow, David Njoku made Joe Flacco look really good'. Njoku could easily give you a top three finish for peanuts.
EIGHTH ROUND
Early: Brian Robinson/Austin Ekeler
Current ADP: 94.7, RB32/95.7, RB33
Yahoo: 97/105 | Sleeper: 103/95 | RTSports: 84/87
As you can see, RTSports is quite a bit higher on the Washington backfield than the Yahoo and Sleeper sides, and I'm with them: I think the Commanders are going to ground in a big way this fall. Rumors of a possible Brandon Aiyuk trade are swirling after the Commanders shipped off 2022 first round pick Jahan Dotson, but even if that were to happen (and I don't think it will) I don't think I'd be adjusting Jayden Daniels' passing volume projections up much at all. The Ron Rivera administration liked Brian Robinson, Dan Quinn really likes him, and for all the postmortem energy surrounding Austin Ekeler - he was literally the fantasy RB1 in 2022 and the reports out of camp are solid. If you can get one, great. If you can get both, even better.
Late: Brock Bowers
Current ADP: 99.7, TE11
Yahoo: 109 | Sleeper: 83 | RTSports: 107
This one is really a toss-up between Bowers and fellow rookie Rome Odunze, as both are 'bet on talent' picks with first round pedigrees and major target competition with which to contend. I erred with Bowers because there are 'only' about 10 tight ends ahead of him, so if he is the superstar talent the Raiders are betting that he is then the the path to him being a weekly must-start is less muddy than it is for Odunze (WR39). Bowers arrives in the NFL as a nearly Tebowian college football folk hero, but unlike Tebow his game isn't fatally flawed. On top of conventional tight end usage, he will also very likely see usage as both a deep threat and even taking jet sweeps and end-arounds as a rusher. If Njoku and Evan Engram are gone then he's just about the last bus out of town before you're officially punting tight end, plus he's got major upside.
NINTH ROUND
Early: DeAndre Hopkins
Current ADP: 104.3, WR43
Yahoo: 115 | Sleeper: 101 | RTSports: 97
Before proceeding, there is a not-insignificant portion of fantasy players that are dead set on taking Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams as their QB1 in drafts this year. I very much like this strategy (as long as it's Caleb), and since 10 or 11 QBs have probably already been taken in your draft at this point you can probably plan on one of them making it back to you at the end of the 10th since those teams will be focusing on other positions and not on getting a backup quarterback until later. But if one of Daniels or Williams is already gone or you have any concerns about someone taking a second QB early just to clip your wings, here's where you need to think long and hard about pulling the trigger. You've been warned.
Anyway, the case for Hopkins is pretty simple: He's a Hall of Famer, he is coming off of a 1,000-yard season despite the Titans having easily a bottom-three passing offense last year, and we just saw Calvin Ridley try and fail to bump off the team's incumbent WR1 last year in Jacksonville. The Titans sound like they're pretty inclined to let Will Levis show them what he's got, and even at 32 DeAndre Hopkins is just plain better than Calvin Ridley. He's also got a bit of a history of conveniently timed "injuries", so I wouldn't put too much stock in this knee issue Hopkins is currently dealing with - I think that's just a hall pass for a veteran to skip unnecessary practice reps and save it for the real thing.
Late: Chase Brown
Current ADP: 109.7, RB36
Yahoo: 119 | Sleeper: 117 | RTSports: 93
Another close one, as fellow second-year men Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison are also perfectly deserving of consideration here. But late running backs that hit win more leagues, and few players have a hype train that's bounding down the mountain into town harder than the one for Brown. I will say that I don't have a huge amount of conviction that he'll outproduce Zack Moss, who our own Andy Richardson has been a big fan of at times over the summer. But he's a good bit cheaper, so if you can pair Brown with one of the Commanders RBs you've definitely got at least one fish on the line here.
TENTH ROUND
Early: Keon Coleman
Current ADP: 115.3, WR46
Yahoo: 136 | Sleeper: 98 | RTSports: 112
Another receiver where I must respectfully break with the party line, I'm staying in on Coleman against Ian Allan's strong urging. And I actually don't disagree, I think Shakir is a great pick and I fully expect him to come out of the gate strong. But I'm pretty sure the Bills infamously traded back (twice) with Keon Coleman specifically in mind. The Chiefs took Rashee Rice with intentionality last spring, and the receiver landscape the two arrive in as rookies is undeniably similar: superstar QB, big-time guy at tight end, tons of uncertainty at wide receiver. I agree that Shakir is the clubhouse leader at the halfway mark; I'll bet that Coleman comes on by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around. But one nice thing about this debate is that Shakir (137.3) can generally be had in the 12th round, so I absolutely recommend taking both and basically guaranteeing you've got the right guy between the two.
Late: T.J. Hockenson
Current ADP: 127.7, TE14
Yahoo: 142 | Sleeper: 119 | RTSports: 122
The non-maniac options at this late stage of the game are probably a couple of Jaguars players, as rookie Jags' receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (126.7) offers Malik Nabers type upside for a fraction of the price, and Trevor Lawrence (125.0) is just absurdly cheap for a guy that should both throw plenty and scoot for a few rushing touchdowns.
But there are a great many savvy players out there that are going to leave their draft with TJ Hockenson in the 10th or 11th (or 12th) round, then ride out his inevitable September spent on the PUP list by pairing him with either Taysom Hill if he has TE-eligibility on their league's fantasy platform (which he does on Sleeper and just finally gained on Yahoo yesterday after all these years) or one of Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant or Zach Ertz where Taysom isn't TE-eligible, and probably enjoy top-5 TE production overall this season without having to even consider using a top-100 pick. That kind of 'easy mode' production is extremely hard to pass up, and impossible not to point out.
—Luke Wilson
