We tend to get swept up by the guys who start the season with big numbers. It's not hard to understand why: The season is new, yesteryear is quickly becoming a distant memory, and guys like Puka Nacua, Raheem Mostert and Sam LaPorta are rocketing fantasy teams to the top of the standings.
It's comparatively much easier to lose sight of the guys that close out a fantasy season on a high note, so I circled back to revisit how 2023 ended for everybody. I drilled down on weeks 12-17 (Week 18 data is as wonky as ever, so I held it out) and went searching for guys whose performances over this timeframe significantly exceeded their production over the first 11 weeks of the season. I found a pretty interesting mix of players I expected to see and players I really didn't.
| PLAYERS WHO CLOSED 2024 ON HIGH NOTES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G 1-11 | G 12-17 | FPG 12-17 |
| Jordan Love | QB12 | QB2 | 21.7 |
| • Matthew Stafford | QB21 | QB6 | 20.8 |
| Derek Carr | QB22 | QB15 | 15.9 |
| • Derrick Henry | RB15 | RB6 | 15.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB36 | RB9 | 13.8 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR42 | WR2 | 21 |
| Rashee Rice | WR41 | WR6 | 14.9 |
| • DK Metcalf | WR28 | WR7 | 14.7 |
| • George Pickens | WR33 | WR11 | 13.1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | WR159 | WR20 | 11.5 |
| • David Njoku | TE12 | TE1 | 14.2 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE59 | TE4 | 12.5 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE77 | TE7 | 8.6 |
| • Juwan Johnson | TE43 | TE8 | 8.5 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE29 | TE11 | 7.8 |
A lot of this data is not terribly surprising; we knew Jordan Love and Rashee Rice came on very strong down the stretch, and that Deebo Samuel was still up to his old fantasy hijinks when healthy last year. But I for one did not expect to see DK Metcalf edge out Tyreek Hill over the fantasy season's final six weeks. Ditto for Juwan Johnson outpacing Travis Kelce over that stretch.
Obviously, some of these finishes were borne out of injuries ahead of those players - Isaiah Likely and Tucker Kraft almost definitely won't have the opportunity to carry their hot streaks over into the start of 2024 directly. Speaking of which, honorable mention for Jake Browning (QB7) and Joe Flacco (QB10), whom I left out for obvious reasons. But I dotted the ones that I felt affected my perception of players going forward, and really all of these findings fall somewhere between interesting and relevant for me.
—Luke Wilson