It’s official (almost official, anyway.) Reports suggest the Browns will leave Nick Chubb on the PUP list for the start of the season. That will require him to miss at least the first four games.
There have been videos posted on social media showing Chubb running and lifting. He should be return relatively healthy at some point, with a chance to be one of the league’s best runners. He’s been in the league for six years, and he’s averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in all of those seasons.
Since run-oriented Kevin Stefanski showed up, Chubb has averaged 89 rushing and 13 receiving yards in 45 games, with 34 touchdowns. He’s 29.
Until Chubb returns, Jerome Ford seems like a decent fill-in. When he and Kareem Hunt shared time last year, they were a decent combo, averaging 72 rushing and 25 receiving yards, with 17 touchdowns in 15 games. The Browns didn’t re-sign Hunt, putting Ford in position to play a bigger role.
The Browns have some other backs – Pierre Strong, D’Onta Foreman – but Ford should be their starter until Chubb is back.
Ford is entering his third season, with a chance to step up his game. He was a little erratic last year, with 9 dropped passes and too many negative runs. The Browns have a new running backs coach (Duce Staley) which perhaps will help polish up some of those issues.
The Browns have offensive line issues, with both offensive tackles questionable to be healthy at the start of the season. That doesn’t help. But Ford is looking like a possible top-20 back for September.
There is some talent there, as evidenced by Ford breaking tackles on 26 carries last year. There were 49 running backs last year with at least 100 carries, and only two broke tackles more often than Ford. Hunt, on the other hand, was the worst of those 49 in that regard.
Via this Nick Chubb PUP development, I have re-worked the projections some. Chubb has been lowered, while Ford has moved up some.
| BROKEN TACKLE RATES (2023) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yards | Avg | BrkTkl | BT% |
| Jaylen Warren, Pitt. | 149 | 784 | 5.3 | 27 | 18.1% |
| James Conner, Ari. | 208 | 1,040 | 5.0 | 27 | 13.0% |
| Jerome Ford, Cle. | 204 | 813 | 4.0 | 26 | 12.7% |
| DeVon Achane, Mia. | 103 | 800 | 7.8 | 13 | 12.6% |
| Najee Harris, Pitt. | 255 | 1,035 | 4.1 | 30 | 11.8% |
| Travis Etienne, Jac. | 267 | 1,008 | 3.8 | 31 | 11.6% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 182 | 945 | 5.2 | 21 | 11.5% |
| Kyren Williams, LAR | 228 | 1,144 | 5.0 | 23 | 10.1% |
| Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 219 | 905 | 4.1 | 22 | 10.0% |
| Khalil Herbert, Chi. | 132 | 611 | 4.6 | 13 | 9.8% |
| Zach Charbonnet, Sea. | 108 | 462 | 4.3 | 10 | 9.3% |
| D'Andre Swift, Phi. | 229 | 1,049 | 4.6 | 21 | 9.2% |
| Brian Robinson, Was. | 178 | 733 | 4.1 | 16 | 9.0% |
| Breece Hall, NYJ | 223 | 994 | 4.5 | 19 | 8.5% |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 169 | 741 | 4.4 | 14 | 8.3% |
| Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 145 | 416 | 2.9 | 12 | 8.3% |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 280 | 1,167 | 4.2 | 23 | 8.2% |
| Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 186 | 683 | 3.7 | 15 | 8.1% |
| David Montgomery, Det. | 219 | 1,015 | 4.6 | 17 | 7.8% |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 142 | 656 | 4.6 | 11 | 7.7% |
| Zamir White, L.V. | 104 | 451 | 4.3 | 8 | 7.7% |
| Raheem Mostert, Mia. | 209 | 1,012 | 4.8 | 16 | 7.7% |
| Tony Pollard, Dall. | 252 | 1,005 | 4.0 | 19 | 7.5% |
| Isiah Pacheco, K.C. | 205 | 935 | 4.6 | 15 | 7.3% |
| Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 238 | 902 | 3.8 | 17 | 7.1% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 156 | 619 | 4.0 | 11 | 7.1% |
| Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 214 | 976 | 4.6 | 15 | 7.0% |
| D'Onta Foreman, Chi. | 109 | 425 | 3.9 | 7 | 6.4% |
| Miles Sanders, Car. | 129 | 432 | 3.3 | 8 | 6.2% |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 198 | 810 | 4.1 | 12 | 6.1% |
| Joshua Kelley, LAC | 107 | 405 | 3.8 | 6 | 5.6% |
| Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 272 | 1,459 | 5.4 | 15 | 5.5% |
| Javonte Williams, Den. | 217 | 774 | 3.6 | 11 | 5.1% |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 179 | 628 | 3.5 | 9 | 5.0% |
| Tyjae Spears, Ten. | 100 | 453 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.0% |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 247 | 962 | 3.9 | 12 | 4.9% |
| Devin Singletary, Hou. | 216 | 898 | 4.2 | 10 | 4.6% |
| Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 233 | 805 | 3.5 | 10 | 4.3% |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 257 | 1,034 | 4.0 | 10 | 3.9% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 180 | 694 | 3.9 | 7 | 3.9% |
| James Cook, Buff. | 237 | 1,122 | 4.7 | 8 | 3.4% |
| Rachaad White, T.B. | 272 | 990 | 3.6 | 9 | 3.3% |
| Ty Chandler, Min. | 102 | 461 | 4.5 | 3 | 2.9% |
| Jamaal Williams, N.O. | 106 | 306 | 2.9 | 3 | 2.8% |
| AJ Dillon, G.B. | 178 | 613 | 3.4 | 5 | 2.8% |
| Alexander Mattison, Min. | 180 | 700 | 3.9 | 5 | 2.8% |
| Ezekiel Elliott, N.E. | 184 | 642 | 3.5 | 5 | 2.7% |
| Zack Moss, Ind. | 183 | 794 | 4.3 | 4 | 2.2% |
| Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 135 | 411 | 3.0 | 2 | 1.5% |
—Ian Allan
