ATLANTA (vs. Sea.): Mike Macdonald established a reputation as a defensive whiz in his two seasons with the Ravens, but he’s been unable turn around Seattle’s defense.
This snippet was first published on October 16.
This was clouded during a 3-0 start, working against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson, but the Seahawks have been roughed up the last three weeks. The Lions and 49ers put up 42 and 36 points against them, and the Giants came into Lumen and put up a season-high 29 points, with 420 yards. So this looks like a promising situation for the Falcons, who are heating up anyway. Their offense scored only 5 TDs in its first four games, but they’ve scored 4 TDs in each of their last two.
Atlanta doesn’t have a great running game. Four times it’s run for fewer than 90 yards. But they ran for 152 at Philadelphia and 198 at Carolina, and that kind of production looks possible this week. Seattle has been dreadful against the run. The Lions and 49ers combined to run for 344 yards and 4 TDs against them. More troubling, the Patriots ran for 185 yards and a touchdown, and the Giants (with Tyrone Tracy making his first NFL start) ran for 175 yards. They’re terrible. So reasonable to pencil in the Falcons for about 140 yards. That might be overly conservative. Bijan Robinson is the starter, but Tyler Allgeier might also get double-digit carries. For the season, Robinson is averaging 63 rushing and 27 receiving yards, with 3 TDs. Allgeier is averaging 27 rushing and 8 receiving yards, with 1 touchdown. They should produce well above those levels this week.
Kirk Cousins has limited mobility – an older guy a year away from an Achilles tear. For the year, he’s at minus-7 rushing yards. On that front, every quarterback begins with a head start against him. But Cousins is a capable veteran passer. If we disregard the Week 1 disaster against Pittsburgh and the 509-yard shootout against the Bucs, he’s averaged 234 passing yards in his other four games, with 4 TDs. He’s been within a first down of that average in all of those games. That’s probably what we’re looking at. Seattle isn’t anything special against the pass right now; it’s allowed an average of 268 passing yards in its last three, with 8 TDs. But if the Falcons have some success running it, that should limit how much they’re asking of Cousins. Average or slightly below-average matchup, it seems.
Drake London of late has been about the most consistent receiver in the league. He’s caught at least 6 passes in five straight games. He’s caught exactly 6 in all but one of those games, and with one touchdown in all but one of five games. He’s averaging 11.3 yards per catch, making 6 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown his usual game. Perhaps just a little lower this week, with Seattle hemorrhaging rushing yards.
Darnell Mooney is streakier but not all that different than London. He’s caught 11 fewer passes, but he’s got more ability to get downfield for chunk plays. He’s averaged 5.2 catches for 71 yards in his last five games, with 3 TDs. Seattle allows plenty of rushing production, perhaps setting up Mooney for a long touchdown.
Ray-Ray McCloud doesn’t have much upside but is putting up better numbers than the 3rd-best wide receiver on most teams. He’s averaging 4 catches for 43 yards so far (albeit with no touchdowns).
Kyle Pitts is never going to live up to the massive expectations that come with being a No. 4 overall pick. He’s finished with fewer than 30 yards in half of his games. But he’s been coming on some lately, with something of note in three of his last four games. He had a 50-yard catch against Kansas City, and he’s caught 10 passes for 158 yards in his last two games. He’s facing a defense that allowed a tight end to catch 2 TDs last week (though George Kittle right now is playing at a level Pitts has never reached).
Younghoe Koo looks very good, with the combination of his accuracy and Atlanta stalling for a healthy number of field goals. He’s averaging 9.5 points. The Seahawks have allowed 3 field goals in back-to-back games.
The Falcons Defense get a choice matchup. Geno Smith is throwing for plenty of yards, but he’s also taken 19 sacks and thrown 6 interceptions. Only three teams have allowed more sacks and only two have more turnovers. But the Falcons don’t seem to have enough firepower on that side of the ball to really take advantage. They have a league-low 5 sacks so far. Atlanta doesn’t have a notable kick returner.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 7 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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