The Dolphins have been an eyesore the last four weeks, averaging 10 points, but there’s some chance of a turnaround this week.
They’ll likely be getting their starting quarterback back, and with him in the lineup, they were the league’s 2nd-highest scoring team a year ago, with nobody gaining more yards. That kind of production isn’t happening; even last year, there was a sizable decline, with the offense scoring only 28 touchdowns in its final 12 games (after averaging 5 in its first six). But middle-of-the-pack production looks reasonable. They’re at home against a bottom-10 defense. Miami is a 3-point favorite with an over-under of 46.5 points, suggesting the betting money thinks they’ll be scoring in the mid-20s.
Tua Tagovailoa will practice today. Barring an unexpected setback, he’ll be starting on Sunday. He says he’ll be playing, and he’s not going to wear a Guardian Cap. The possibility of him putting up above-average numbers shouldn’t be underestimated. He passed for a league-high 338 yards in Week 1, albeit with only one touchdown. Discount that production if you wish, considering Jacksonville has arguably the league’s worst pass defense. Tagovailoa averaged 272 passing yards a year ago (2nd-most in the league), with 29 touchdowns in 17 games. If we toss out that early-season blitz, looking at just the second half of last season, with more difficult defenses on the schedule, Tagovailoa was only average. He went 5-5 in his final 10 starts (including the playoffs) averaging 241 passing yards in those games, with 12 TDs and 8 interceptions. Here he’s taking on a lesser defense; only six teams have allowed more passing yards than Arizona. With the concussion cloud hanging over him, he won’t be running. About 250 yards and 1-2 TDs certainly looks reasonable.
Nobody will be happier to see Tagovailoa back in the lineup than Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle. Each had almost as many yards in the opener as they’ve had in the four games without him. Each caught only 1 pass at Indianapolis. Tagovailoa has missed nine games in the last three years, and neither Hill nor Waddle has caught a touchdown in any of them. With Tagovailoa pulling the trigger, Hill can get back to putting up top-5 numbers in a lot of weeks. He averaged 7.4 catches for 112 yards last year, with 13 touchdowns. Waddle has averaged top-20 per-game numbers the last two years, averaging 4.7 catches for 77 yards, with 12 TDs in 31 games. Here they’re working against a lesser secondary, with Arizona allowing an average of 247 passing yards, with 10 TDs in seven games (all but 2 to wide receivers).
The running game looks very good, with the Cardinals ranking only 26th against the run. They held the two LA teams under 60 rushing yards, but every other opponent has run for at least 130. If Mike McDaniel wants to ease his quarterback into the flow of things, one way would be with a run-dominated game plan. Only issue is how the work will be split up. DeVon Achane seems to be their preferred back for now. He’s had double-digit carries in every game except the one he left with a concussion. And with Tagovailoa back, Miami probably will be looking to get back to those passing plays that were working so well early in the season. Achane caught 14 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown in the first two games. Veteran Raheem Mostert probably will be their second back; he’s carried 30 times for 130 yards in his last two games. Jaylen Wright has averaged over 6 yards per carry in three of his last four games, but he seems to stuck down at third on the depth chart for now. The only time he’s had double-digit carries came when Achane got knocked out of the New England game. Wright’s talent and potential makes him worth a stash roster spot, but he can’t be relied upon at this point.
Jonnu Smith looks like he might become a viable tight end. He’s caught 12 passes for 156 yards and a touchdown in the last two weeks. That was with a backup quarterback at the helm, of course, but when Smith played a little more than a half with Tagovailoa back in Week 2, he caught 5 passes for 47 yards. Some sense in rostering him as a second tight end in a typical league. But it’s a wait-and-see situation. Smith has caught only 3 passes for 25 yards in his other three games (just 1 catch in that opener that featured 338 passing yards).
Jason Sanders looks like an above-average kicker this week (assuming the quarterback is back in action). Arizona has allowed double-digit kicking points in four straight games.
The Dolphins Defense might get some spillover value from Tagovailoa returning, but we’re going with a lesser grade. Miami has only 9 sacks all year, while Kyler Murray has taken only 11, making this one of the least-promising matchups of the week.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 8 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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