That’s some season Austin Seibert has going. He wasn’t even on a roster in Week 1. Now he’s banged in double-digit points in six of seven games.
He’s knocked in double-digit points in five straight games. Since the merger in 1970, only five kickers have put together longer streaks. David Akers of the 2010 Eagles is the leader, getting up to seven games. Chris Boswell and Stephen Gostkowski reached six games in 2015, while Olindo Mare and Gary Anderson reached six in the ‘80s and ‘90s.
The question, then, become whether a kicker who’s knocked in double-digit points in a bunch of weeks should be used with the hope he’ll do it again? Or is this just a fickle position, given that the player is at the mercy of whether his offense will provide him with the necessary field goal attempts?
The historical data looks decent enough. Of the 12 others who’ve had five of these games, half of them reached 10 points again after five straight. Half of the remaining six scored 8-9 points, which is acceptable. I see two duds of the 12 (down at 2-3 points).
(Note that with 2013 Phil Dawson, his five-game streak came at the end of the season, so I plugged in his postseason stats – he continued on with two straight 11-point games in the playoffs.)
| DOUBLE-DIGIT KICKING POINTS IN FIVE STRAIGHT GAMES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Next Opp | 6th G |
| 2010 | David Akers, Phi. | 7 | at NYG | 10 |
| 2015 | Chris Boswell, Pitt. | 6 | at Balt. | 10 |
| 2015 | Stephen Gostkowski, N.E. | 6 | Wash. | 10 |
| 1999 | Olindo Mare, Mia. | 6 | Ten. | 10 |
| 1985 | Gary Anderson, Pitt. | 6 | at NYG | 12 |
| 2024 | Austin Seibert, Was. | 5 | at NYG | ? |
| 2023 | Jake Elliott, Phi. | 5 | at NYJ | 2 |
| 2019 | Wil Lutz, N.O. | 5 | at Ten. | 8 |
| 2017 | Stephen Hauschka, Buff. | 5 | at NYJ | 3 |
| 2013 | Phil Dawson, S.F. | 5 | at G.B.* | 11 |
| 2006 | Robbie Gould, Chi. | 5 | at Ariz. | 6 |
| 2003 | Jeff Wilkins, St.L. | 5 | Sea. | 9 |
| 1986 | Tony Franklin, N.E. | 5 | Buff. | 8 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
More generally, we might ask, “if a team scores a bunch of kicking points in the first half of the season, can it be counted on to also be one of the best in its remaining games?”
The search totals suggest something between “sort of” and “not really”.
In the last 10 years, 40 teams (using teams here, to avoid the issue of guys getting hurt or otherwise missing games) have averaged at least 9 kicking points in their first eight games. Those 40 teams averaged only 7.6 kicking points in their next eight games, which is only slightly above average in a typical year.
Of those 40 hot-early teams, nine (almost a quarter) also averaged at least 9 kicking points in their next eight games. But 14 averaged fewer than 7 points, which is below average.
That’s leaves 17 of the 40 teams (almost half), averaging between 7 and 9 points, which is more along the lines of what is expected of typical average (or slightly above-average) teams.
In the table, teams that were able to continue averaging 9-plus points are in bold. Teams that averaged under 7 in the second half of the season are tagged with black dots.
The NFL moved to a 17-game schedule in 2021. To keep this study symmetrical (with 8-game chunks for each season) I tossed out the 17th games for the last three years.
There are four teams in the current season that have averaged at least 9 points in their first eight games – Commanders, Steelers, 49ers and Texans.
| AVERAGING 9 POINTS IN FIRST 8 GAMES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | 1st 8 | Next 8 | Diff |
| 2017 | LA Rams | 99 | 69 | -30 |
| 2024 | WASHINGTON | 90 | ? | ? |
| 2014 | New England | 88 | 68 | -20 |
| 2015 | New England | 88 | 63 | -25 |
| 2017 | Kansas City | 86 | 77 | -9 |
| 2024 | PITTSBURGH | 85 | ? | ? |
| 2024 | SAN FRANCISCO | 84 | ? | ? |
| 2017 | New England | 80 | 76 | -4 |
| 2017 | Tennessee | 79 | 57 | -22 |
| 2016 | Atlanta | 78 | 80 | 2 |
| 2016 | Philadelphia | 78 | 57 | -21 |
| 2018 | • New England | 77 | 53 | -24 |
| 2021 | • Buffalo | 77 | 49 | -28 |
| 2023 | Dallas | 76 | 73 | -3 |
| 2021 | New England | 76 | 68 | -8 |
| 2014 | Indianapolis | 76 | 64 | -12 |
| 2023 | • Philadelphia | 76 | 55 | -21 |
| 2019 | • Arizona | 76 | 51 | -25 |
| 2017 | • Philadelphia | 76 | 51 | -25 |
| 2020 | • New Orleans | 76 | 50 | -26 |
| 2015 | • Denver | 76 | 49 | -27 |
| 2020 | Atlanta | 75 | 73 | -2 |
| 2019 | Baltimore | 75 | 66 | -9 |
| 2018 | New Orleans | 75 | 61 | -14 |
| 2017 | • Minnesota | 75 | 55 | -20 |
| 2014 | • Baltimore | 75 | 54 | -21 |
| 2019 | • Jacksonville | 75 | 43 | -32 |
| 2020 | Las Vegas | 74 | 70 | -4 |
| 2018 | Kansas City | 74 | 63 | -11 |
| 2015 | • Baltimore | 74 | 54 | -20 |
| 2016 | • Indianapolis | 74 | 51 | -23 |
| 2020 | • Cincinnati | 74 | 39 | -35 |
| 2024 | HOUSTON | 74 | ? | ? |
| 2023 | Cleveland | 73 | 57 | -16 |
| 2023 | Kansas City | 73 | 57 | -16 |
| 2016 | • San Diego | 73 | 47 | -26 |
| 2018 | LA Rams | 72 | 81 | 9 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia | 72 | 78 | 6 |
| 2015 | Carolina | 72 | 74 | 2 |
| 2020 | Miami | 72 | 72 | 0 |
| 2016 | Washington | 72 | 66 | -6 |
| 2017 | Detroit | 72 | 58 | -14 |
| 2022 | Seattle | 72 | 58 | -14 |
| 2018 | NY Jets | 72 | 57 | -15 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan