The season has deteriorated quickly for the Cowboys, but don't tell Jerry Jones. He's out there dishing off fourth-round picks for reserve wide receivers for the league's worst team, keenly identifying what's troubling Dallas (not the run game or defense, but shoring up that wide receiver group with a solid No. 4).
Anyway, with Dak Prescott headed for IR with a hamstring injury, Cooper Rush will be starting at least the next four games for Dallas. How might the offense fare with him?
Rush didn't start any games a year ago, but he'll move into the lineup now. (I wonder if it's occurred to Jones that the last player the team viewed highly during the draft process and traded a fourth-round pick for, Trey Lance, hasn't been able to threaten for that spot.) He did start five games in 2022, when Prescott was sidelined with a broken ankle.
Tables below show how the key current guys (Rush and CeeDee Lamb) fared in those five contests.
| COOPER RUSH, 2022 STARTS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Opp | Pass | TD |
| Cin. | 235 | 1 |
| at NYG | 215 | 1 |
| Was. | 223 | 2 |
| at LAR | 102 | 0 |
| at Phi. | 181 | 1 |
Rush's first three games were pretty similar to what Dak has been doing this season -- slightly fewer yards, but Prescott has thrown only 11 TDs in eight contests. Rush threw for 4 TDs in three games, with 215 to 235 passing yards in all of those.
His last two bring the averages down, but the Eagles game (with Philly a Super Bowl team that season) was the only one he actually struggled. In the Rams game Dallas won 22-10, with an early touchdown on a fumble return and then controlling things with their defense (and kicking 3 field goals) the rest of the way. Rush attempted only 16 passes in that one, while Dallas ran for 163 yards. If you've seen the Cowboys play at all this season, you're aware there's zero chance of any of the next few games going like that one. Dallas is a poor running team and has one of the two worst run defenses in the league. They will not be controlling anything with their defense.
In short, I think there might be some serviceable passing numbers from the Dallas offense with Rush at quarterback, say 220 yards and a touchdown. Prescott was averaging 247 yards and about 1.3 TD passes, so not a seismic shift.
| LAMB WITH RUSH | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | No | Rec | TD |
| Cin. | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| at NYG | 8 | 87 | 1 |
| Was. | 6 | 97 | 1 |
| at LAR | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| at Phi. | 5 | 68 | 0 |
Lamb averaged 7 catches for 86 yards in those first three games, with 2 TDs. This season he's at 6.6 catches for 83 yards per week, with 4 TDs in eight games. Lamb caught just 5 for 53 at the Rams, but that game doesn't seem relevant. There is no chance of Dallas winning a game while attempting only 16 passes this year. Just 5 for 68 at Philadelphia, which might be relevant -- they're playing Philly this week, and the offense might struggle the next few weeks. They don't have the kind of running game or offensive line they did two years ago. But in general, no one should be looking to start many wideouts ahead of Lamb. He's not killing it anyway this year, but the shift from Prescott to Rush doesn't totally destroy his value.
Jake Ferguson is the other key receiver, I think, and that's a trickier case. Two years ago, the Cowboys had a three-player scrum at tight end, with Dalton Schultz, Peyton Hendershot and rookie-year Ferguson.
But Ferguson had one good game (that Schultz missed) and it came against Philadelphia: 4 for 40 with a touchdown. So on a day Rush was struggling in a loss, he targeted his main tight end 6 times and threw a scoring pass. Ferguson, then, may also be OK.
In general, Rush's next four games don't look great, matchup-wise. Eagles this week, Texans next, and then at Washington. But the next four after that (Giants, Bengals, Panthers, and Bucs) have some favorable situations. Rush will probably start at least a couple of those games (I expect Prescott is more likely to miss 5 games than 4, because when guys are placed on IR, it only means the team is certain they're missing at least four -- not that they're likely to only miss four).
All in all, Rush taking over is a blow to the offense, and I won't be looking to get Jalen Tolbert, Brandin Cooks (if back) or Jonathan Mingo into lineups. But Lamb and Ferguson will still be on the field for me.
--Andy Richardson