I like the look of the Bucs. They’re 4-5 and working through some injuries, but they’ve sure got a favorable closing schedule. I think they’ll be in the playoffs.
They’ll host the 49ers this week, and we’ll see how that goes. They’ve also got a road game against the Chargers left. But I could see Tampa Bay winning all of its other remaining games – Panthers twice, Giants, Raiders, Cowboys and Saints.
It’s by far the easiest remaining schedule in the league, with those remaining games against opponents that are currently 22-47. Only one other team will play its final games against teams that have won fewer than 30 games (Arizona, 29-40).
So while the Bucs have lost Chris Godwin for the season and will play at least one more without Mike Evans, I expect we’ll see Baker Mayfield continue to put up good numbers.
The chart below shows win-loss records for Weeks 10-17 (leaving out Week 18 because most fantasy leagues are shuttered at that point).
Bears, Ravens, Steelers: those are the team with the hardest remaining schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Wks 10-17) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
Tampa Bay | 20 | 40 | .333 |
Arizona | 25 | 36 | .410 |
Miami | 29 | 41 | .414 |
NY Giants | 27 | 35 | .435 |
LA Rams | 31 | 38 | .449 |
NY Jets | 28 | 33 | .459 |
Indianapolis | 28 | 33 | .459 |
New Orleans | 29 | 33 | .468 |
Jacksonville | 28 | 31 | .475 |
Las Vegas | 29 | 32 | .475 |
Atlanta | 29 | 32 | .475 |
Minnesota | 33 | 36 | .478 |
Cincinnati | 29 | 30 | .492 |
Kansas City | 35 | 35 | .500 |
Green Bay | 29 | 29 | .500 |
Denver | 31 | 30 | .508 |
Tennessee | 36 | 34 | .514 |
Houston | 30 | 28 | .517 |
New England | 31 | 28 | .525 |
Dallas | 37 | 33 | .529 |
LA Chargers | 37 | 33 | .529 |
Carolina | 32 | 28 | .533 |
Washington | 31 | 27 | .534 |
Detroit | 37 | 32 | .536 |
Buffalo | 32 | 27 | .542 |
Seattle | 33 | 27 | .550 |
Philadelphia | 38 | 30 | .559 |
San Francisco | 38 | 30 | .559 |
Cleveland | 33 | 26 | .559 |
Pittsburgh | 41 | 29 | .586 |
Baltimore | 35 | 24 | .593 |
Chicago | 42 | 25 | .627 |
With this kind of thing, some prefer to look not at wins and losses, but points. We’re interested, after all, not in NFL offenses that win but those who put the ball in the end zone. The numbers suggest the Giants, Bucs and Eagles will tend to face the weakest defenses the rest of the way.
The Ravens, Browns and Patriots, via the current numbers, should see the toughest defenses in Weeks 10-17 (again, leaving out that final Sunday).
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS | |
---|---|
Team | Points |
NY Giants | 26.1 |
Tampa Bay | 25.6 |
Philadelphia | 24.3 |
Arizona | 24.2 |
Houston | 23.9 |
Carolina | 23.7 |
New Orleans | 23.5 |
NY Jets | 23.5 |
Dallas | 23.5 |
Las Vegas | 23.4 |
LA Chargers | 23.3 |
Miami | 23.3 |
Minnesota | 23.2 |
Jacksonville | 22.9 |
Washington | 22.5 |
Pittsburgh | 22.4 |
LA Rams | 22.3 |
San Francisco | 22.1 |
Tennessee | 22.0 |
Denver | 21.8 |
Green Bay | 21.7 |
Detroit | 21.4 |
Buffalo | 21.4 |
Seattle | 21.3 |
Indianapolis | 21.3 |
Kansas City | 21.3 |
Cincinnati | 21.2 |
Chicago | 20.9 |
Atlanta | 20.9 |
New England | 20.5 |
Cleveland | 19.9 |
Baltimore | 18.6 |
—Ian Allan