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Strength of schedule

A Baker's half dozen of layups wait for Tampa Bay

I like the look of the Bucs. They’re 4-5 and working through some injuries, but they’ve sure got a favorable closing schedule. I think they’ll be in the playoffs.

They’ll host the 49ers this week, and we’ll see how that goes. They’ve also got a road game against the Chargers left. But I could see Tampa Bay winning all of its other remaining games – Panthers twice, Giants, Raiders, Cowboys and Saints.

It’s by far the easiest remaining schedule in the league, with those remaining games against opponents that are currently 22-47. Only one other team will play its final games against teams that have won fewer than 30 games (Arizona, 29-40).

So while the Bucs have lost Chris Godwin for the season and will play at least one more without Mike Evans, I expect we’ll see Baker Mayfield continue to put up good numbers.

The chart below shows win-loss records for Weeks 10-17 (leaving out Week 18 because most fantasy leagues are shuttered at that point).

Bears, Ravens, Steelers: those are the team with the hardest remaining schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Wks 10-17)
TeamWLPct
Tampa Bay2040.333
Arizona2536.410
Miami2941.414
NY Giants2735.435
LA Rams3138.449
NY Jets2833.459
Indianapolis2833.459
New Orleans2933.468
Jacksonville2831.475
Las Vegas2932.475
Atlanta2932.475
Minnesota3336.478
Cincinnati2930.492
Kansas City3535.500
Green Bay2929.500
Denver3130.508
Tennessee3634.514
Houston3028.517
New England3128.525
Dallas3733.529
LA Chargers3733.529
Carolina3228.533
Washington3127.534
Detroit3732.536
Buffalo3227.542
Seattle3327.550
Philadelphia3830.559
San Francisco3830.559
Cleveland3326.559
Pittsburgh4129.586
Baltimore3524.593
Chicago4225.627

With this kind of thing, some prefer to look not at wins and losses, but points. We’re interested, after all, not in NFL offenses that win but those who put the ball in the end zone. The numbers suggest the Giants, Bucs and Eagles will tend to face the weakest defenses the rest of the way.

The Ravens, Browns and Patriots, via the current numbers, should see the toughest defenses in Weeks 10-17 (again, leaving out that final Sunday).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS
TeamPoints
NY Giants26.1
Tampa Bay25.6
Philadelphia24.3
Arizona24.2
Houston23.9
Carolina23.7
New Orleans23.5
NY Jets23.5
Dallas23.5
Las Vegas23.4
LA Chargers23.3
Miami23.3
Minnesota23.2
Jacksonville22.9
Washington22.5
Pittsburgh22.4
LA Rams22.3
San Francisco22.1
Tennessee22.0
Denver21.8
Green Bay21.7
Detroit21.4
Buffalo21.4
Seattle21.3
Indianapolis21.3
Kansas City21.3
Cincinnati21.2
Chicago20.9
Atlanta20.9
New England20.5
Cleveland19.9
Baltimore18.6

—Ian Allan

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