Houston’s offense has been a disappointment, currently sitting at 17th in scoring. It’s scored only 22 touchdowns in 10 games. But I think we’ll see an uptick in the next month.
Nico Collins is going to help. He might be one of the game’s top half-dozen wide receivers, consistently getting downfield for chunk plays. He won’t fix that offensive line, of course, but he’ll help.
And the upcoming schedule looks like an asset. Their next four games all look encouraging: at Dallas, Tennessee, at Jacksonville and Miami. I don’t see how they don’t average more than 2.2 touchdowns in those four games.
On said topic, let’s check in on schedules in general, giving us some hints of what offenses might be about to get better (or worse) than is generally expected.
Looking at the next five games for each team (that is, Weeks 11-15 for some, but Weeks 11-16 for teams that haven’t yet had their byes) four teams project to play opponents currently averaging (as a five-team group) over 24 points per week: Giants, Cowboys, Bucs, Texans.
Of course, hard to get excited about the Giants or Cowboys, but this is supporting evidence that maybe Drew Lock or Trey Lance will grade out as a top-24 quarterback some weeks (for those in Superflex leagues). And perhaps a sign that Malik Nabers can start looking more like he did in September. (If and when the Giants turn to Lock or Tommy DeVito, they may be more willing to pull the trigger on deep throws.)
Four teams will be playing their next five against defenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game: Ravens, Browns, Bears, Falcons. Nobody is worried about Baltimore putting up numbers, but those other teams are of the type where the preference is to have them helped along by matchups.
SOS, POINTS (next 5 G) | |
---|---|
Team | Avg |
NY Giants | 25.8 |
Dallas | 24.6 |
Tampa Bay | 24.6 |
Houston | 24.4 |
NY Jets | 24.0 |
LA Chargers | 23.9 |
Arizona | 23.9 |
Philadelphia | 23.7 |
Jacksonville | 23.4 |
Pittsburgh | 23.3 |
Washington | 23.2 |
Kansas City | 23.0 |
Miami | 22.9 |
Tennessee | 22.7 |
New Orleans | 22.6 |
Carolina | 22.6 |
Denver | 22.1 |
New England | 22.0 |
Seattle | 21.9 |
Minnesota | 21.9 |
Cincinnati | 21.7 |
Las Vegas | 21.6 |
Detroit | 21.6 |
San Francisco | 21.6 |
Green Bay | 21.4 |
Indianapolis | 21.4 |
LA Rams | 21.2 |
Buffalo | 21.1 |
Atlanta | 19.7 |
Chicago | 19.6 |
Cleveland | 18.5 |
Baltimore | 17.1 |
For those preferring to look at win-loss records, those numbers are below. Again, looking at the next five games for each team.
SOS, WIN-LOSS (next 5 G) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
Tampa Bay | 16 | 31 | .340 |
NY Jets | 17 | 30 | .362 |
Houston | 19 | 27 | .413 |
Miami | 20 | 28 | .417 |
Denver | 20 | 27 | .426 |
Indianapolis | 21 | 27 | .438 |
Dallas | 22 | 28 | .440 |
Cincinnati | 20 | 25 | .444 |
Arizona | 21 | 26 | .447 |
Jacksonville | 21 | 26 | .447 |
Kansas City | 21 | 26 | .447 |
New Orleans | 21 | 26 | .447 |
Pittsburgh | 22 | 25 | .468 |
Minnesota | 22 | 25 | .468 |
Atlanta | 22 | 25 | .468 |
NY Giants | 23 | 26 | .469 |
Washington | 22 | 24 | .478 |
Detroit | 24 | 24 | .500 |
New England | 25 | 23 | .521 |
Tennessee | 26 | 23 | .531 |
Green Bay | 24 | 21 | .533 |
Seattle | 26 | 22 | .542 |
LA Rams | 26 | 22 | .542 |
Las Vegas | 27 | 21 | .563 |
San Francisco | 26 | 20 | .565 |
Philadelphia | 28 | 20 | .583 |
LA Chargers | 30 | 19 | .612 |
Carolina | 29 | 18 | .617 |
Buffalo | 29 | 17 | .630 |
Baltimore | 29 | 17 | .630 |
Cleveland | 31 | 16 | .660 |
Chicago | 33 | 12 | .733 |
—Ian Allan