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Texans on the rise

Houston should benefit from upcoming schedule

Houston’s offense has been a disappointment, currently sitting at 17th in scoring. It’s scored only 22 touchdowns in 10 games. But I think we’ll see an uptick in the next month.

Nico Collins is going to help. He might be one of the game’s top half-dozen wide receivers, consistently getting downfield for chunk plays. He won’t fix that offensive line, of course, but he’ll help.

And the upcoming schedule looks like an asset. Their next four games all look encouraging: at Dallas, Tennessee, at Jacksonville and Miami. I don’t see how they don’t average more than 2.2 touchdowns in those four games.

On said topic, let’s check in on schedules in general, giving us some hints of what offenses might be about to get better (or worse) than is generally expected.

Looking at the next five games for each team (that is, Weeks 11-15 for some, but Weeks 11-16 for teams that haven’t yet had their byes) four teams project to play opponents currently averaging (as a five-team group) over 24 points per week: Giants, Cowboys, Bucs, Texans.

Of course, hard to get excited about the Giants or Cowboys, but this is supporting evidence that maybe Drew Lock or Trey Lance will grade out as a top-24 quarterback some weeks (for those in Superflex leagues). And perhaps a sign that Malik Nabers can start looking more like he did in September. (If and when the Giants turn to Lock or Tommy DeVito, they may be more willing to pull the trigger on deep throws.)

Four teams will be playing their next five against defenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game: Ravens, Browns, Bears, Falcons. Nobody is worried about Baltimore putting up numbers, but those other teams are of the type where the preference is to have them helped along by matchups.

SOS, POINTS (next 5 G)
TeamAvg
NY Giants25.8
Dallas24.6
Tampa Bay24.6
Houston24.4
NY Jets24.0
LA Chargers23.9
Arizona23.9
Philadelphia23.7
Jacksonville23.4
Pittsburgh23.3
Washington23.2
Kansas City23.0
Miami22.9
Tennessee22.7
New Orleans22.6
Carolina22.6
Denver22.1
New England22.0
Seattle21.9
Minnesota21.9
Cincinnati21.7
Las Vegas21.6
Detroit21.6
San Francisco21.6
Green Bay21.4
Indianapolis21.4
LA Rams21.2
Buffalo21.1
Atlanta19.7
Chicago19.6
Cleveland18.5
Baltimore17.1

For those preferring to look at win-loss records, those numbers are below. Again, looking at the next five games for each team.

SOS, WIN-LOSS (next 5 G)
TeamWLPct
Tampa Bay1631.340
NY Jets1730.362
Houston1927.413
Miami2028.417
Denver2027.426
Indianapolis2127.438
Dallas2228.440
Cincinnati2025.444
Arizona2126.447
Jacksonville2126.447
Kansas City2126.447
New Orleans2126.447
Pittsburgh2225.468
Minnesota2225.468
Atlanta2225.468
NY Giants2326.469
Washington2224.478
Detroit2424.500
New England2523.521
Tennessee2623.531
Green Bay2421.533
Seattle2622.542
LA Rams2622.542
Las Vegas2721.563
San Francisco2620.565
Philadelphia2820.583
LA Chargers3019.612
Carolina2918.617
Buffalo2917.630
Baltimore2917.630
Cleveland3116.660
Chicago3312.733

—Ian Allan

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