I shouldn’t admit this, but I kind of like Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Green Bay, Kansas City and Buffalo have all given up on him, but I like the way he fits into the Saints’ offense.
Valdes-Scantling has inconsistent hands. You have to live with that. Most famously, he dropped a long touchdown at Arrowhead last year that was pivotal in a loss (against the Eagles, I believe). And he’s always been kind of one-dimensional deep threat.
But he sure looked good in his first game in New Orleans, getting deep for 67- and 40-yard bombs, including a touchdown, and catching another short touchdown, helping them upset Atlanta.
Back in September, Rashid Shaheed caught 3 touchdowns on bombs over 40 yards, and he dropped another such touchdown in the home loss to the Eagles. MVS looks like he can fill that role in a similar way.
I’ve never been a big Derek Carr fan; I’ve always seen him as a checkdown Charlie. But he’s a knowledgeable veteran, and he’s shown he can serve up those deep balls. Over 3 percent of his completions this year have gone for 40-plus yards, ranking 3rd among quarterbacks (behind Anthony Richardson and Jalen Hurts).
The Saints are asking Carr to push it downfield more often, and he’s answered the bell. He’s averaging 8.1 yards per attempt; that’s the best of his career. He’s averaging 12.0 yards per completion (also better than in any of his previous 10 seasons).
There’s an “Adjusted Air Yards” metric at Pro-Football-Reference, and Carr in that category measures at 8.34. That’s also the best of his career, and it’s up there with the league leaders. Only five quarterbacks grade out higher, and they’re all guys you tend to think of as being good – Lamar, Herbert, Purdy, Daniels and Hurts. Carr comes in just ahead of Goff, Burrow and Josh Allen.
| ADJUSTED AIR YARDS PER ATTEMPT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | AYA |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 199 | 288 | 69.1 | 2,669 | 24 | 2 | 10.62 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | 159 | 241 | 66.0 | 1,889 | 11 | 1 | 8.56 |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | 181 | 278 | 65.1 | 2,454 | 12 | 7 | 8.56 |
| Jayden Daniels, Was. | 180 | 262 | 68.7 | 2,147 | 9 | 2 | 8.54 |
| Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 164 | 235 | 69.8 | 1,976 | 12 | 5 | 8.47 |
| Derek Carr, N.O. | 124 | 184 | 67.4 | 1,494 | 11 | 4 | 8.34 |
| Joe Burrow, Cin. | 246 | 358 | 68.7 | 2,672 | 24 | 4 | 8.30 |
| Jared Goff, Det. | 173 | 241 | 71.8 | 2,080 | 16 | 9 | 8.28 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 190 | 299 | 63.5 | 2,281 | 17 | 4 | 8.16 |
| Kirk Cousins, Atl. | 227 | 333 | 68.2 | 2,634 | 17 | 8 | 7.85 |
| Kyler Murray, Ari. | 191 | 276 | 69.2 | 2,058 | 12 | 3 | 7.84 |
| Sam Darnold, Min. | 179 | 261 | 68.6 | 2,141 | 17 | 10 | 7.78 |
| Baker Mayfield, T.B. | 243 | 344 | 70.6 | 2,505 | 24 | 9 | 7.50 |
| Justin Fields, Pitt. | 106 | 160 | 66.3 | 1,106 | 5 | 1 | 7.26 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 168 | 274 | 61.3 | 2,004 | 11 | 6 | 7.13 |
| C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 207 | 329 | 62.9 | 2,371 | 12 | 6 | 7.12 |
| Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 113 | 156 | 72.4 | 1,155 | 6 | 4 | 7.02 |
| Jordan Love, G.B. | 147 | 240 | 61.3 | 1,820 | 15 | 10 | 6.96 |
| Geno Smith, Sea. | 233 | 342 | 68.1 | 2,560 | 11 | 10 | 6.81 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | 214 | 322 | 66.5 | 2,262 | 9 | 7 | 6.61 |
| Joe Flacco, Ind. | 113 | 170 | 66.5 | 1,167 | 9 | 5 | 6.60 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 216 | 311 | 69.5 | 2,208 | 12 | 9 | 6.57 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 185 | 286 | 64.7 | 1,978 | 11 | 8 | 6.43 |
| Aaron Rodgers, NYJ | 219 | 351 | 62.4 | 2,258 | 15 | 7 | 6.39 |
| Caleb Williams, Chi. | 178 | 294 | 60.5 | 1,785 | 9 | 5 | 5.92 |
| Bo Nix, Den. | 206 | 324 | 63.6 | 1,968 | 10 | 6 | 5.86 |
| Drake Maye, N.E. | 97 | 150 | 64.7 | 954 | 7 | 5 | 5.79 |
| Gardner Minshew, L.V. | 148 | 221 | 67.0 | 1,501 | 6 | 8 | 5.71 |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | 216 | 341 | 63.3 | 2,070 | 8 | 7 | 5.62 |
| Mason Rudolph, Ten. | 76 | 128 | 59.4 | 806 | 4 | 4 | 5.52 |
| Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 59 | 133 | 44.4 | 958 | 4 | 7 | 5.44 |
| Andy Dalton, Car. | 106 | 160 | 66.3 | 989 | 7 | 6 | 5.37 |
| Jacoby Brissett, N.E. | 94 | 159 | 59.1 | 828 | 2 | 1 | 5.18 |
| Deshaun Watson, Cle. | 137 | 216 | 63.4 | 1,148 | 5 | 3 | 5.15 |
| Will Levis, Ten. | 101 | 148 | 68.2 | 874 | 7 | 7 | 4.72 |
| Bryce Young, Car. | 92 | 153 | 60.1 | 820 | 4 | 6 | 4.12 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
The Saints, at the same time, are one of the bottom-feeder teams. We’ve got that working against us. But get Valdes-Scantling in the right matchup, and I think there’s some sense in rolling the dice on him. The Browns this week, I’m not sure, quite meet the tastiest threshold.
If Valdes-Scantling continues to show well, then I think we could think about taking a flyer on him in Week 17. The Saints that week are playing their final home game, against one of the few teams that’s definitely worse than they are (the Raiders). Carr, you would figure, will be plenty motivated for that game.
—Ian Allan