Fantasy Index Weekly is done for the season, but we'll be previewing the four teams still playing here at the website over the next several days, with player rankings published at the end of the week. Up first is the road team in the NFC game, the Washington Commanders.
Overview: Hard to believe, but in the long history of these two clubs they've met only one other time in the postseason, a wild-card game after the 1990 season (Washington, 20-6). They split the two regular-season meetings this year, with the Eagles winning 26-18 at home in Week 11, then losing a 36-33 shootout at Washington in Week 16 -- Philly's only loss since Week 4. Jalen Hurts was sidelined early on in that one. … The Eagles are favored by 5.5, with an over-under of 47.5 implying about a 27-21 Eagles win. That's fair based on each team's season, but could age poorly if Hurts (knee) is as injury-compromised as he appeared at the end of the Rams game. … The early weather forecast looks surprisingly manageable, with a daytime high of 44 degrees and no precipitation expected. A little windy (10-15 mph); that’s the main concern.
Commanders: The Eagles had one of the very best defenses during the season, No. 1 in yards allowed (278 per week) and No. 2 in points (17.8). They're a much tougher matchup than the Bucs and Lions defenses that Washington's offense rolled up an average of 411 yards and 31 points against the last two weeks, which is reflected in the betting line. But two of the better performances against this defense have come in the past four games (setting aside Week 18, when Philadelphia rested a lot of starters). Washington scored 5 TDs in its 36-33 Week 16 win, and the Rams put up 402 yards in last week's 28-22 loss, with their final drive reaching Philly's 13-yard line. The Eagles don't have Nakobe Dean, their 2nd-leading tackler during the season, and might not have first-round corner Quinyon Mitchell (shoulder). Including the playoffs Washington's offense averaged 3.2 TDs during the season, and scored 4-plus in four of its last seven. That makes 2-3 TDs the likely outcome, with about an even chance of making it up to 3 rather than just 2.
The ground game finished with big numbers at Detroit, but it's been the Jayden Daniels show for most of the season. Even last week consider the first half, with the backs carrying 9 times for 42 yards, while Daniels threw for 242 yards and 2 TDs. And at Tampa Bay, with Daniels throwing for 268 and 2 and the running backs carrying 19 times for 44 yards. Both of those previous playoff opponents rank in the top 7 against the run and bottom 5 against the pass, while Washington was statistically better running the ball (3rd) than passing it (18th). But take aways Daniels' running (52 yards per week), and this was a bottom-10 ground game. That held true in the regular-season meetings, with Daniels averaging 225 yards passing and 50 rushing, with a hand in 6 of the offense's 7 touchdowns (the non-Daniels ground game averaged just 53 yards). His 5-TD performance in the home win isn't likely to be repeated (that game was influenced by Philly losing its quarterback early on, and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson in the second half), but he'll probably be better than his 191 and 1, with 18 rushing yards, in the road loss. Philadelphia ranked 2nd in pass defense, allowing just 192 yards per week; they then held Jordan Love to 212 (and with 3 interceptions) in the first playoff game. But with Dean and Mitchell missing all or most of last week's game, Matthew Stafford threw for 326 and 2 -- some superfluous production at the end, perhaps, but they weren't shutting them down. Out of respect for what this defense has done all season, and the possibility that January weather is a factor -- a change from Washington's first two playoff games, at Tampa and indoors -- somewhere around 230 yards and a 1-2 TDs seems fair. But add in the rushing potential, and he might finish with the week's best numbers in fantasy leagues.
The conventional ground game doesn’t look great. The Eagles weren't as tough against the run (10th) as the pass, but they were still very good, and that showed up in both of the previous meetings. Brian Robinson averaged 13 carries for 44 yards in the two games, with 1 TD. He'll get the most carries, but won't necessarily play any more than Austin Ekeler. Ekeler (who missed the home win) ran for only 7 yards in the road game but caught 8 passes for 89 yards. He played a little less than Robinson last week, with Robinson winding up with 77 yards and 2 TDs, but still finished with more total yards (47 rushing and 41 receiving). Washington led for most of that one; if they're behind, Ekeler will be on the field more. Jeremy McNichols had a short touchdown last week, but just 4 carries for 8 yards and probably won't play much if the game is close. But a committee in a lesser matchup, in which either of the top 2 could finish with the most production. Robinson looks a little more likely to get in the end zone, outscoring Ekeler 8-4 during the season, but just 1 TD in his final six games. The Eagles allowed only 9 rushing scores during the season (plus 1 the last two weeks).
Terry McLaurin had a big year, although he was somewhat contained by this defense. Just a single 10-yard reception at Philadelphia, then 5 for 60 with a touchdown in the home game (with his quarterback throwing for 5 scores). McLaurin also had a 1-catch game against Atlanta, but has otherwise scored in seven straight (9 TDs total in those contests). Philadelphia may not have one of its starting cornerbacks (Quinyon Mitchell), who missed most of last week with a shoulder injury; at best he'll be playing hurt. Different wideouts have taken turns stepping up after McLaurin, with Dyami Brown hot lately. He emerged as a nominal option the last month of the season, catching 3-4 passes for an average of 34 yards in the final four games, but has now caught 5-6 balls for 89-98 yards the last two weeks, with 1 TD. Both big games were against much weaker secondaries than this one, but he seems to be the 2nd-best option. Olamide Zaccheaus is the other possibility; in Weeks 15-16 (including the win over this opponent) he caught 13 passes for 155 yards and 3 touchdowns. But that looks fluky now, influenced by McLaurin being taken away or limited in those games. Zaccheaus has caught just 3 passes for 19 yards the last two weeks, looking like at best the 4th option in the passing game. He played only slightly more than Jamison Crowder (who caught 2 passes) at Detroit; neither looks viable. Of the 22 TDs thrown against the Eagles during the regular season, 17 went to wide receivers (although tight ends caught both of the playoff scores).
In their last 10 games (including the playoffs), the Eagles have allowed 7 TD receptions by tight ends; 2 by the Rams last week, and Tucker Kraft was Green Bay's busiest receiver (5 catches) the previous game. One of those scores was by Zach Ertz, who caught 6 for 47 and that touchdown at Philadelphia, and has caught 30 passes and 6 TDs in eight games since. Ertz knows his way around the stadium and will probably be busy again this week.
Zane Gonzalez has been shaky of late. His game-winning field goal at Tampa Bay banked off the upright, and he's missed 3 of his last 9 attempts (including from 44 and 46). He's made all 27 of his extra points, although the ratio has been another recent negative: in his last six he's attempted 23 extra points and just 9 field goals. Only six teams allowed fewer field goals than Philadelphia (25), but two of them are playing in the AFC game. But with Washington the week's least likely winner, a lesser choice.
The Commanders Defense might play a large role this week. While it was the least of the four remaining teams in terms of takeaways (17), it was best for sacks (43). Jalen Hurts injured his knee against the Rams and while he'll almost certainly play, his mobility was severely compromised at the end of that one. He was sacked 7 times in that game. Just 38 during the season in a run-focused offense, and 2 in his one full game against this defense, but seemingly a favorable matchup at less than 100 percent. Jamison Crowder has 17- and 23-yard punt returns in eight games handling those chances with Washington, but his last touchdown in that capacity was in 2016.
Tomorrow: Philadelphia Eagles.