These five potential outfield busts could have a tough time matching their early average draft positions.
Avoiding overvalued outfielders in key on draft day. With so many options to choose from, these five outfielders stand out as potential busts in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts.
James Wood, OF, Nationals
Buying and projecting upside can be key in fantasy baseball leagues, especially more shallow leagues of 12 teams or fewer. Thus, top prospects making impressive debuts like Wood are worth their weight in gold if they are able to continue excellent early production. The former top prospect hit .264-9-41 with 43 runs and 14 stolen bases in 79 games during his rookie season after tearing up the minors earlier in the season. Wood has a lot going for him with a career .302 minor league batting average and 85th percentile speed on a team that’s been willing to run on the basepaths recently.
There are also many risks in rostering Wood. His 29% strikeout rate in his debut isn’t conducive to a great batting average, and his 55% groundball rate and 2.4 degree launch angle make lifting the ball out of the park a challenge. For the right price, Wood’s speed and pure hitting upside is attractive, but his ADP near 50 would require much more power than he’s capable of to match the price.
Lawrence Butler, OF, Athletics
It’s good to be Butler these days after a surprising and electric rookie season. He came two stolen bases short of a 20/20 season and did so in only 125 games for an up-and-coming A’s offense. Other elements of his game were also strong, including a 91 mph average exit velocity, 24% strikeout rate, and plenty of red in his Statcast percentile rankings.
Like James Wood, there are also blemishes in Butler’s game. His 58th percentile speed doesn’t reflect an elite base stealer, even as he was a perfect 18-for-18 last season, and the totality of his minor league track record was iffy with a career .783 OPS and only 54 home runs in 403 games. Is this the case of an excellent athlete who has finally found his footing or an early overachiever who will be figured out in his next time around the league? His ADP near 65 doesn’t provide much margin for error to find out.
Mike Trout, OF, Angels
It’s fair to say Trout was the best fantasy and MLB player of his prime era from 2012-2019, earning three AL MVPs and first overall earner status multiple times in fantasy leagues. However, the last four years have been very difficult to watch. He’s averaged only 67 games per season in spite of three All-Star appearances, hitting .276-19-39 with 45 runs and three steals per year. 2024 was arguably the roughest year of them all, as Trout hit only .220 in 29 games before a season-ending knee injury.
The elite talent remains, as Trout showed last season with 10 homers in such a limited amount of time, but there’s also been clear deterioration of his skills in recent season with a spike strikeout rate and declining exit velocity. Fantasy managers love to play the what-if game, but Trout would need to play far more than his recent average of 67 games to near an ADP near 110.
Randy Arozarena, OF, Mariners
Seeing players age isn’t easy, and we’ve starting to see signs of age from Arozarena. While he netted his fourth consecutive 20/20 season in 2024, the outfielder also hit a career-low .219 in the process. We saw some decline in his barrel rate and exit velocity, but the bigger impact now could come from his change of scenery.
Seattle has consistently been one of the worst atmospheres for hitters in baseball. There’s been some discussion about an improvement in the batter’s eye for T-Mobile Park heading into 2025, but that still feels like an uphill battle when projecting any improvement from Arozarena. He had only five home runs and four steals in 54 games with the M’s last season, and his speed is in clear decline according to his yearly Statcast speed percentile rankings. The price has dropped to a more reasonable 130 ADP, but the decline in speed even makes fulfilling that value a tough bet.
Lane Thomas, OF, Guardians
The Guardians were hopeful Thomas’ breakout 2023 season wasn’t a flash in the pan when they acquired him at the trade deadline last year. While his overall offensive numbers were disappointing last year compared in the breakout campaign, Thomas was able to help fantasy managers due to a career-high 32 stolen bases.
Still, it’s extremely important to note where those steals tool place. Thomas was given the green light in Washington by manager Dave Martinez, swiping 28 bases in 40 attempts. After the trade to Cleveland, Thomas had only four steals in six attempts over 53 games. Thomas has an excellent 93rd percentile speed ranking, but he never stolen 20 bases in the minors and has mostly been inefficient as a major league on the basepaths as he approaches age 30. Another 30 steal season appears very unlikely, and it still remains to be seen if the power we saw in 2023 was real. His ADP near 175 is a tough bet for what isn’t a particularly highly floor in Cleveland.
--Seth Trachtman
You can find fantasy baseball analysis in the 2025 Fantasy Baseball Index Draft Kit and Fantasy Baseball Index magazine.