These 6 starting pitchers are overvalued heading into draft day.
Pitching is more variable from year-to-year than hitting, so it’s imperative to avoid the overvalued starting pitchers on draft day. These six starters could have a difficult time earning their draft day values.
Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers
The toast of the offseason, the Dodgers made splash after splash. Their offseason really got going when they signed Snell to a five-year deal, and there’s optimism of an improvement with a full Spring Training to get settled after he got off to a late start last year. Last year’s late start resulted in early struggles and only 20 starts for San Diego, but he managed to make up for lost time with a 2.43 FIP and career-high 12.5 K/9.
There’s no doubting Snell’s ability as an ace when he’s on, but the current ADP near 50 is wishful thinking for a pitcher with a history of durability issues. The fact is that the lefty has thrown more than 130 innings twice in his nine-year career, yet he would need to break that plateau to return value at his current price. Even on an elite Dodgers team that should encourage wins, Snell’s price is tough given his health track record.
Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners
Miller is a young pitcher ascending as he enters his second full MLB season. He took a giant step forward last season, posting a 2.94 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP in 31 starts for the M’s. Miller has an elite fastball and control, but a look behind the curtain provides some pessimism for his ability to repeat last year.
The ERA metrics show clear overachievement last year, as Miller finished 2024 with a 3.58 FIP and 3.80 SIERA with his very lucky .237 BABIP for the season. It also should be noted how much better Miller was at his pitcher-friendly home in Seattle with a 1.96 ERA (16 starts) compared to 4.07 (15 starts) on the road. That’s part of the benefit of pitching in what has become the best pitcher’s park in baseball, and while it’s impossible to truly account for at this point, it’s also added risk should Miller start more games on the road this season or somehow find himself in another uniform. The ADP near 90 isn’t unreasonable, but also shows the market’s hope of Miller’s continued progress.
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
Why pick on another Mariners starting pitcher? Castillo is a proven veteran with eight years of MLB experience, but his concerns are different than Miller. Simply put, we’re beginning to see signs that Castillo’s 1,200-plus career innings are catching up with him.
The evidence is clear in Castillo’s declining strikeout rate, which at 24% was the third worst of his career. It’s more overt on the radar gun, as Castillo’s average fastball is down about 1.5 mph from two years ago, and his velocity per pitch was down last season across the board. Like Miller, Castillo’s ERA metrics (3.91 FIP, 3.79 SIERA) were worse than his actual ERA of 3.64, providing even more reason to be pessimistic. The ADP has dropped near 110 this season, though even that price could be too hefty.
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
Flaherty found his old stuff again after signing with the Tigers last offseason, pitching like an ace between Detroit and LA with a 3.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 over 28 starts. Health issues have long been a problem for Flaherty, and his back was barking for much of his time in Los Angeles. The injury was clearly reflected in waning velocity down the stretch.
Sometimes we have to take the free agent as a sign from MLB teams. Even after Flaherty’s spectacular season, he had to settle for a two-year, $35 million contract back with Detroit. Given Flaherty’s history, it’s not a stretch to guess his physical issues prevented a bigger contract, and the waning velocity also resulted in a FIP above 4.00 with the Dodgers over the final two months. Don’t forget Flaherty struggled to stay healthy and posted a cumulative 4.42 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with the Cardinals and Orioles from 2020-2023. There’s big risk here and too much for me to buy, even at an ADP near 150.
Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros
Blanco was one of the best stories of 2024, a former minor league reliever who found himself as a starter with the Astros and began his season with a no-hitter. Blanco finished the season better than anyone could have expected with a 2.80 ERA over 167.1 innings.
For all Blanco’s success, there are a series of blaring sirens to back off a repeat. His .220 BABIP, 4.15 FIP, and 4.17 SIERA showed that he was one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball, and a history of home run issues also showed up last season with 1.2 HR/9. He also slowed somewhat in the second half, with a 3.24 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and fewer than five innings per appearance. His ADP of 240 shows early drafters aren’t that impressed, either, but even that price is too high for a pitcher who is likely to finish with an ERA above 4.00.
Ben Lively, Cleveland Guardians
Lively’s profile is becoming more common as a pitcher who struggled to get outs in MLB, but was able to find his form after time in Korea. He struggled to keep the ball in the park during his first year back in the States with the Reds in 2023, but Cleveland saw something they liked. After signing the veteran right-hander last offseason, he proceeded to post a surprising 3.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 29 starts even as his average fastball failed to crack 90 mph.
While Lively was a great addition for fantasy managers last season, the signs don’t point to last year’s success continuing. The ERA metrics show some major regression pending with a 4.66 FIP and 4.58 SIERA, and the flyball pitcher continued to have trouble keeping the ball in the park last year. His second half performance also showed some struggles with a K/9 that dwindled to 5.7. Lively is a fine backend starter for the Guardians but is unlikely to be useful on fantasy teams.
You can find fantasy baseball analysis in the 2025 Fantasy Baseball Index Draft Kit and Fantasy Baseball Index magazine.