Indianapolis has opted to make Daniel Jones the league’s highest-paid backup quarterback – he’s making $14 million this year. That’s a strong indication the Colts are nervous about Anthony Richardson’s ability to blossom, or at least the likelihood he’ll stay healthy.
Richardson is unusually athletic; built more like a tight end, and with a cannon arm. But he hasn’t played much and doesn’t look remotely close to being an NFL starter in terms of figuring out where to go with the ball and getting it there on time.
He completed fewer than 48 percent of his passes last year, the 2nd-lowest rate by any quarterback in the last 20 years (among those starting at least half the season). He averaged only 165 passing yards in his 11 starts, and with only 8 TD passes. He averaged 144 yards in four starts as a rookie.
It will be an uphill climb, it seems, for Richardson to get to where the Colts would like him to be.
But such improvements aren’t unprecedented. Consider the chart below. It shows the 27 other quarterbacks in the 32-team era who have started at least 10 games in their first two seasons, averaging fewer than 200 passing yards in their first 15 starts. A fair number of such quarterbacks have ended up being notable pros.
Of the quarterbacks that fit this description, four averaged top-10 per-game numbers the next year (their third season). Three of those quarterbacks were helped along by rushing production (Justin Fields, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson), Richardson also checks that box in a big way.
And I see three other quarterbacks on the list who went on to have memorable careers – Drew Brees, Michael Vick, Joe Flacco.
I don’t know that Richardson will ever quite get over the hump. He could be another Justin Fields, where there’s just not quite enough passing production to be paired with the running ability. But with what he’ll do on the ground, I expect it will be making sense to pick Richardson about 15 quarterbacks into drafts – he’s worth a swing in there somewhere.
In the chart below (which is admittedly complicated), the first number after the player’s name shows his average passing yards in his first 10-15 starts (in his first two seasons). Then you’re looking at how he fared in his third year. The final number (“Rk”) shows where he ranked on a per-game basis against other quarterbacks who started at least half the season.
| THIRD SEASON NUMBERS FOR SLOW STARTING QUARTERBACKS (per game) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player, Tm | Prev | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2007 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 125 | 3 | 159.3 | 1.00 | .67 | -.3 | .00 | 12.6 | -- |
| 2008 | Bruce Gradkowski, Cle. | 149 | 1 | 18.0 | .00 | 2.00 | 2.0 | .00 | 1.1 | -- |
| 2013 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 154 | 3 | 160.3 | .33 | 2.33 | 10.7 | .00 | 10.4 | -- |
| 2004 | David Carr, Hou. | 159 | 16 | 220.7 | 1.00 | .88 | 18.7 | .00 | 16.9 | 20 |
| 2008 | Vince Young, Ten. | 159 | 1 | 110.0 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 4.0 | .00 | 9.9 | -- |
| 2008 | Tarvaris Jackson, Min. | 159 | 5 | 188.6 | 1.60 | .40 | 28.0 | .00 | 18.6 | -- |
| 2009 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 163 | 9 | 118.2 | .22 | 1.00 | 4.3 | .00 | 7.2 | 32 |
| 2011 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 163 | 16 | 217.1 | 1.63 | 1.13 | 6.4 | .38 | 20.3 | 13 |
| 2025 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 165 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2020 | Josh Rosen, S.F. | 173 | 0 | .0 | .00 | .00 | .0 | .00 | .0 | -- |
| 2013 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 175 | 9 | 142.2 | .56 | .78 | 16.9 | .44 | 13.7 | 32 |
| 2010 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 178 | 16 | 226.4 | 1.56 | .63 | 5.3 | .06 | 18.5 | 19 |
| 2023 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 180 | 11 | 193.7 | .64 | .55 | 18.6 | .00 | 14.5 | 26 |
| 2023 | •• Justin Fields, Chi. | 180 | 13 | 197.1 | 1.23 | .69 | 50.5 | .31 | 21.7 | 9 |
| 2003 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 181 | 4 | 131.3 | 1.00 | .75 | 59.8 | .25 | 18.0 | -- |
| 2020 | •• Josh Allen, Buff. | 182 | 16 | 284.0 | 2.31 | .63 | 26.3 | .56 | 29.5 | 1 |
| 2019 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 183 | 15 | 209.2 | 1.13 | .67 | 12.9 | .13 | 17.2 | 29 |
| 2025 | Bryce Young, Car. | 186 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2004 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 187 | 16 | 190.4 | 1.19 | .75 | 10.9 | .00 | 15.5 | 26 |
| 2006 | •• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 188 | 15 | 234.2 | 1.20 | 1.53 | 6.5 | .13 | 18.0 | 10 |
| 2024 | Kenny Pickett, Phil. | 190 | 1 | 143.0 | 1.00 | .00 | 3.0 | 1.00 | 17.5 | -- |
| 2014 | •• Russell Wilson, Sea. | 191 | 16 | 217.2 | 1.25 | .44 | 53.1 | .38 | 23.4 | 6 |
| 2004 | Josh McCown, Ariz. | 195 | 13 | 188.4 | .85 | .62 | 8.6 | .15 | 14.7 | 28 |
| 2007 | Charlie Frye, Cle. | 196 | 1 | 34.0 | .00 | 1.00 | 1.0 | .00 | 1.8 | -- |
| 2005 | Chris Simms, T.B. | 197 | 10 | 196.6 | 1.00 | .70 | 3.1 | .00 | 14.1 | 27 |
| 2003 | Drew Brees, S.D. | 197 | 11 | 191.6 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 7.6 | .09 | 15.1 | 24 |
| 2015 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 197 | 2 | 280.5 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 30.0 | .50 | 26.0 | -- |
| 2013 | Jake Locker, Ten. | 198 | 7 | 179.4 | 1.14 | .57 | 22.1 | .29 | 17.5 | -- |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan
