The Steelers picked up Kaleb Johnson late in the third round, and that’s a nice-looking pick. He looks similar to Najee Harris, only with a little more speed. But let’s not be too quick to kick Jaylen Warren to the curb.
Warren is an effective back. Give him the ball, and good things happen. He’s averaged 4.8 yards per carry. There are 42 running backs who’ve logged at least 250 carries the last three years, and only five have averaged more yards per attempt than Warren.
How he went undrafted, I have no idea. He’s averaged more yards per carry than any of the running backs who were drafted that year. Not that some of those guys aren’t really good backs – James Cook, Kyren Williams, Breece Hall – but it’s comical that Warren wasn’t even picked. He’s a smaller back, but he weighs 215 pounds.
In the chart below, I’ve got the other backs who entered the league in 2022 tagged with black dots. All of those players were drafted.
| YARDS PER CARRY (last 3 yrs) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| DeVon Achane, Mia. | 306 | 1,707 | 5.58 | 14 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 432 | 2,357 | 5.46 | 26 |
| Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 322 | 1,661 | 5.16 | 14 |
| Derrick Henry, Balt. | 605 | 3,088 | 5.10 | 28 |
| Saquon Barkley, Phil. | 592 | 2,967 | 5.01 | 19 |
| Jaylen Warren, Pitt. | 269 | 1,295 | 4.81 | 5 |
| James Conner, Ari. | 444 | 2,134 | 4.81 | 15 |
| • James Cook, Buff. | 444 | 2,131 | 4.80 | 18 |
| Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 518 | 2,432 | 4.69 | 18 |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 472 | 2,172 | 4.60 | 18 |
| Aaron Jones, Min. | 397 | 1,794 | 4.52 | 7 |
| • Kyren Williams, LAR | 544 | 2,443 | 4.49 | 26 |
| • Jerome Ford, Cle. | 308 | 1,378 | 4.47 | 7 |
| Rico Dowdle, Dall. | 324 | 1,440 | 4.44 | 4 |
| David Montgomery, Det. | 404 | 1,790 | 4.43 | 25 |
| Raheem Mostert, Mia. | 294 | 1,290 | 4.39 | 20 |
| • Breece Hall, NYJ | 432 | 1,870 | 4.33 | 10 |
| • Isiah Pacheco, K.C. | 288 | 1,245 | 4.32 | 8 |
| Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 488 | 2,097 | 4.30 | 15 |
| Chase Brown, Cin. | 273 | 1,169 | 4.28 | 7 |
| Latavius Murray, Buff. | 250 | 1,060 | 4.24 | 10 |
| • Brian Robinson, Was. | 365 | 1,532 | 4.20 | 13 |
| D'Andre Swift, Chi. | 482 | 2,008 | 4.17 | 11 |
| • Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 323 | 1,327 | 4.11 | 7 |
| Joe Mixon, Hou. | 502 | 2,050 | 4.08 | 20 |
| Tony Pollard, Ten. | 512 | 2,084 | 4.07 | 11 |
| Devin Singletary, NYG | 329 | 1,335 | 4.06 | 8 |
| Zack Moss, Cin. | 257 | 1,036 | 4.03 | 7 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 408 | 1,644 | 4.03 | 11 |
| Najee Harris, Pitt. | 518 | 2,078 | 4.01 | 14 |
| Josh Jacobs, G.B. | 534 | 2,134 | 4.00 | 21 |
| • Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 372 | 1,478 | 3.97 | 15 |
| Gus Edwards, LAC | 299 | 1,175 | 3.93 | 17 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 363 | 1,420 | 3.91 | 11 |
| Austin Ekeler, Was. | 256 | 995 | 3.89 | 9 |
| • Rachaad White, T.B. | 416 | 1,603 | 3.85 | 9 |
| AJ Dillon, G.B. | 364 | 1,383 | 3.80 | 9 |
| Travis Etienne, Jac. | 417 | 1,566 | 3.76 | 13 |
| Javonte Williams, Den. | 356 | 1,287 | 3.62 | 7 |
| Alexander Mattison, L.V. | 312 | 1,120 | 3.59 | 4 |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 335 | 1,139 | 3.40 | 16 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 258 | 868 | 3.36 | 6 |
Kaleb Johnson is bigger than Warren. Perhaps better suited to be the “one” in a one-two punch backfield, with a few more touches. But I think those guys are going to share time. Warren has more experience, which could pay dividends – especially early in the year and in the passing game. And there may be some deference to him being a veteran and having paid his dues.
I don’t know where these guys will be getting picked in drafts, but my early guess is that I will be higher than most on Warren and cooler than the consensus on Johnson.
But it’s early. Steelers don’t even have their quarterback yet.
—Ian Allan