I notice that rookie receivers are having more success early. There seems to be less of a learning curve than in the past.
Using PPR scoring, 28 rookie receivers have finished with top-30 numbers in their first season. That’s an average of about 3 per season.
And if we zero in on the elite prospects, the hit rate climbs even higher. There have been 19 wide receivers chosen with top-10 picks in the last 15 years, and about two thirds of those guys have posted top-30 numbers immediately. They’ve been starter-type guys in fantasy leagues.
There was one disaster year, 2017, with Corey Davis, John Ross and Mike Williams are underperforming dramatically (in part because of injuries). Otherwise, 13 of the last 16 such picks have been useful immediately.
Compare that to the first decade of the century, when only 2 of 17 wide receivers put up top-30 numbers in their first year. That group included three Hall of Famers – Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. (In fairness here, Fitzgerald and Megatron weren’t total busts – they ranked 31st and 38th.)
Also in that group are Roy Williams, Michael Crabtree, Plaxico Burress, David Terrell and Braylon Edwards, who all had some NFL success. Those guys were slow starters, but probably would make more of an instant impact in today’s game.
We’re got two top-10 receivers this year. Travis Hunter definitely will be making some plays. He’s not going to be a Kevin White or John Ross type player who simply didn’t translate to the NFL. He’s a landscape shifter.
With McMillan, my sense is he’s below-average in comparison to the others on this list. He’s not a Ja’Marr Chase or Malik Nabers, and I’m not crazy about the situation, with the Panthers being a lesser team that’s well stocked with other pass catchers. But with these other numbers in front of me, I would think it appropriate to make McMillan one of the first 40 wide receivers selected, hoping he can hit the ground running.
(Guys with top-30 numbers tagged with dots.)
WIDE RECEIVERS PICKED IN THE TOP 10 OVERALL | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
2000 | • Peter Warrick, Cin. | 148 | 51 | 592 | 7 | 167.0 | 30 |
2000 | Plaxico Burress, Pitt. | 0 | 22 | 273 | 0 | 49.3 | 86 |
2000 | Travis Taylor, Balt. | 11 | 28 | 276 | 3 | 74.7 | 72 |
2001 | David Terrell, Chi. | 0 | 34 | 415 | 4 | 99.5 | 61 |
2001 | Koren Robinson, Sea. | 13 | 39 | 536 | 1 | 99.9 | 60 |
2003 | Charles Rogers, Det. | 17 | 22 | 243 | 3 | 66.0 | 88 |
2003 | • Andre Johnson, Hou. | -10 | 66 | 976 | 4 | 186.6 | 22 |
2004 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 0 | 27 | 268 | 1 | 63.8 | 93 |
2004 | Roy Williams, Det. | 1 | 54 | 817 | 8 | 183.8 | 32 |
2004 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 14 | 58 | 780 | 8 | 185.4 | 31 |
2005 | Mike Williams, Det. | 0 | 29 | 350 | 1 | 70.0 | 88 |
2005 | Troy Williamson, Min. | 28 | 24 | 372 | 2 | 76.0 | 82 |
2005 | Braylon Edwards, Cle. | 0 | 32 | 512 | 3 | 101.2 | 67 |
2007 | Ted Ginn, Mia. | 3 | 34 | 420 | 3 | 94.3 | 74 |
2007 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 52 | 48 | 756 | 5 | 158.8 | 38 |
2009 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 19 | 9 | 124 | 1 | 29.3 | 118 |
2009 | Michael Crabtree, S.F. | 0 | 48 | 625 | 2 | 122.5 | 60 |
2011 | • Julio Jones, Atl. | 56 | 54 | 959 | 8 | 203.5 | 21 |
2011 | • A.J. Green, Cin. | 53 | 65 | 1057 | 7 | 218.0 | 17 |
2012 | • Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 23 | 64 | 865 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
2013 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 151 | 40 | 418 | 6 | 132.9 | 53 |
2014 | • Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 8 | 65 | 982 | 6 | 200.0 | 27 |
2014 | • Mike Evans, T.B. | 0 | 68 | 1051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
2015 | Kevin White, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2015 | • Amari Cooper, Oak. | -3 | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 |
2017 | John Ross, Cin. | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 199 |
2017 | Mike Williams, LAC | 0 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 20.5 | 139 |
2017 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 0 | 34 | 375 | 0 | 71.5 | 85 |
2021 | • DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 0 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
2021 | • Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 3 | 104 | 1015 | 7 | 247.8 | 12 |
2021 | • Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 21 | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
2022 | • Drake London, Atl. | 0 | 72 | 866 | 4 | 184.6 | 28 |
2022 | • Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 4 | 83 | 1103 | 4 | 217.7 | 21 |
2024 | Rome Odunze, Chi. | 15 | 54 | 734 | 3 | 146.9 | 49 |
2024 | • Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 0 | 62 | 885 | 8 | 198.5 | 30 |
2024 | • Malik Nabers, NYG | 2 | 109 | 1204 | 7 | 273.6 | 6 |
2025 | Travis Hunter, Jac. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2025 | Tetairoa McMillan, Car. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan