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Factoid

Hitting the ground running

Rookie receivers having more success early

I notice that rookie receivers are having more success early. There seems to be less of a learning curve than in the past.

Using PPR scoring, 28 rookie receivers have finished with top-30 numbers in their first season. That’s an average of about 3 per season.

And if we zero in on the elite prospects, the hit rate climbs even higher. There have been 19 wide receivers chosen with top-10 picks in the last 15 years, and about two thirds of those guys have posted top-30 numbers immediately. They’ve been starter-type guys in fantasy leagues.

There was one disaster year, 2017, with Corey Davis, John Ross and Mike Williams are underperforming dramatically (in part because of injuries). Otherwise, 13 of the last 16 such picks have been useful immediately.

Compare that to the first decade of the century, when only 2 of 17 wide receivers put up top-30 numbers in their first year. That group included three Hall of Famers – Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. (In fairness here, Fitzgerald and Megatron weren’t total busts – they ranked 31st and 38th.)

Also in that group are Roy Williams, Michael Crabtree, Plaxico Burress, David Terrell and Braylon Edwards, who all had some NFL success. Those guys were slow starters, but probably would make more of an instant impact in today’s game.

We’re got two top-10 receivers this year. Travis Hunter definitely will be making some plays. He’s not going to be a Kevin White or John Ross type player who simply didn’t translate to the NFL. He’s a landscape shifter.

With McMillan, my sense is he’s below-average in comparison to the others on this list. He’s not a Ja’Marr Chase or Malik Nabers, and I’m not crazy about the situation, with the Panthers being a lesser team that’s well stocked with other pass catchers. But with these other numbers in front of me, I would think it appropriate to make McMillan one of the first 40 wide receivers selected, hoping he can hit the ground running.

(Guys with top-30 numbers tagged with dots.)

WIDE RECEIVERS PICKED IN THE TOP 10 OVERALL
YearPlayerRunNoRecTDPPRRk
2000• Peter Warrick, Cin.148515927167.030
2000Plaxico Burress, Pitt.022273049.386
2000Travis Taylor, Balt.1128276374.772
2001David Terrell, Chi.034415499.561
2001Koren Robinson, Sea.1339536199.960
2003Charles Rogers, Det.1722243366.088
2003• Andre Johnson, Hou.-10669764186.622
2004Reggie Williams, Jac.027268163.893
2004Roy Williams, Det.1548178183.832
2004Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.14587808185.431
2005Mike Williams, Det.029350170.088
2005Troy Williamson, Min.2824372276.082
2005Braylon Edwards, Cle.0325123101.267
2007Ted Ginn, Mia.334420394.374
2007Calvin Johnson, Det.52487565158.838
2009Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak.199124129.3118
2009Michael Crabtree, S.F.0486252122.560
2011• Julio Jones, Atl.56549598203.521
2011• A.J. Green, Cin.536510577218.017
2012• Justin Blackmon, Jac.23648655184.829
2013Tavon Austin, St.L.151404186132.953
2014• Sammy Watkins, Buff.8659826200.027
2014• Mike Evans, T.B.068105112245.113
2015Kevin White, Chi.0000.0--
2015• Amari Cooper, Oak.-37210706214.721
2017John Ross, Cin.120001.2199
2017Mike Williams, LAC01195020.5139
2017Corey Davis, Ten.034375071.585
2021• DeVonta Smith, Phil.0649165187.630
2021• Jaylen Waddle, Mia.310410157247.812
2021• Ja'Marr Chase, Cin.2181145513306.65
2022• Drake London, Atl.0728664184.628
2022• Garrett Wilson, NYJ48311034217.721
2024Rome Odunze, Chi.15547343146.949
2024• Marvin Harrison, Ari.0628858198.530
2024• Malik Nabers, NYG210912047273.66
2025Travis Hunter, Jac.??????
2025Tetairoa McMillan, Car.??????

—Ian Allan

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