Derek Carr was the last second-round pick to start a full NFL season as a rookie. He might be replaced by the next.
Carr retired on Saturday, citing a shoulder injury that would prevent him from playing in 2025 even if he wanted to.
Tyler Shough, I’m think, probably will be the starter for the Saints. I like the look of him a lot more than Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener, who are a combined 0-7 as pro starters. (Haener comes with the oddity of having played his college ball at the same school as Carr, Fresno State.)
Rattler started six games as a rookie and generally struggled. He can run around some but completed only 57 percent of his passes, with 3 TDs and 5 interceptions.
The Saints selected Shough with the 40th pick of the draft, and I think he’ll beat out those guys.
After playing seven years of college football, Shough is older – he’ll be 26 in September. He didn’t play much at Oregon and suffered season-ending injuries in all three of his seasons at Texas Tech.
But Shough looked good last year at Louisville, going 8-4 as a starter. At 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, he’s the right size, and he looks like he can efficiently operate an offense. In his 12 starts last year, he finished with a 23-6 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, and with only 14 sacks.
Looking into Shough prior to the draft, it occurred to me that some teams might like him better than Shedeur Sanders. He’s bigger, with a livelier arm. He threw downfield a lot more often last year. And he was really good at avoiding sacks, while Sanders had a tendency to take way too many (including a comical 25-yarder in a bowl game against BYU.)
While Shough has a good chance to be the starter in New Orleans, expectations should be modest. Nonexistent, really. He can move around a little bit, but he’s not a runner – he’s not going to be sneaking out of the bottom 5 with scrambles. Some team needs to have the least productive quarterback, and the Saints are the early frontrunners.
In the 32-team era, only 10 second-round picks have started games as rookies. The only one who made any notable impact was Jalen Hurts, who started four games late in the year, with some run-pass success. None of the other nine averaged top-20 per-game numbers.
| SECOND-ROUND QUARTERBACKS STARTING GAMES | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2006 | Tarvaris Jackson, Min. | 2 | 131.5 | .50 | 1.50 | 28.5 | .50 | 14.4 | -- |
| 2007 | John Beck, Mia. | 4 | 106.0 | .00 | .75 | 2.5 | .00 | 5.6 | -- |
| 2010 | Jimmy Clausen, Car. | 10 | 149.9 | .30 | .80 | 5.7 | .00 | 9.3 | 32 |
| 2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 16 | 212.4 | 1.25 | .81 | 9.5 | .06 | 16.9 | 21 |
| 2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 16 | 190.4 | .75 | 1.31 | 22.9 | .38 | 17.1 | 27 |
| 2014 | • Derek Carr, Oak. | 16 | 204.4 | 1.31 | .75 | 5.8 | .00 | 16.0 | 28 |
| 2017 | DeShone Kizer, Clev. | 15 | 192.9 | .73 | 1.47 | 27.9 | .33 | 17.4 | 21 |
| 2019 | Drew Lock, Den. | 5 | 204.0 | 1.40 | .60 | 14.4 | .00 | 17.2 | -- |
| 2020 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 4 | 231.3 | 1.25 | .75 | 68.0 | .75 | 27.9 | -- |
| 2023 | Will Levis, Ten. | 9 | 200.9 | .89 | .44 | 6.3 | .11 | 15.1 | 25 |
| 2025 | Tyler Shough, N.O. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Looking beyond rookie years, there have been a number of second-rounders who have had excellent careers, with Drew Brees and Brett Favre leading the way. Seven others in the last 40 years have had at least one season with top-5 cumulative fantasy numbers – Hurts, Dalton, Jake Plummer, Kordell Stewart, Randall Cunningham and Boomer Esiason.
Further back, Neil Lomax had some success in the ‘80s, while Ron Jaworski and Ken Stabler both started in Super Bowls.
For 2025 seasons, I will have Shough as my No. 2 quarterback. If we’re talking dynasty, then probably No. 3 – definitely ahead of the Cleveland guys, but probably edged out by Jaxson Dart.
—Ian Allan