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Late-round running backs, part 2

Hit rate almost nonexistent in the late rounds

I have mentioned a few times over the last week or so the abysmal track record of late-round rookie running backs. Specifically, in the last 10 years, there’s been only one from the seventh round (Isiah Pacheco) and only one from the sixth round (Elijah Mitchell) who were at all worth rostering in their rookie seasons.

There were more notable running backs who weren’t even picked at all. This is something to keep in mind when mulling how actively to pursue guys like Devin Neal and Damien Martinez. While these guys hit from time to time, it’s really rare.

But that’s just year one. With it being an interesting trend, I wanted to re-run the numbers, only with careers rather than just first seasons. Chris Carson, as one example, became a big-time back after not doing making much of an impact as a rookie. How many more Carsons are out there, both in the late rounds and not getting picked at all?

So I re-ran the same study, using the best season for each back – the season he ranked the highest among his piers (using PPR scoring). I didn’t want to penalize guys from 2023 and 2024 (who haven’t yet had the chance to fully develop), so I instead focused on the drafts of 2013-2022.

The results were pretty similar to what we saw before. There was more talent that didn’t even get draft than what got picked in the last two rounds. Among undrafted running backs, 15 have gone on to have a top-30 season, and three have cracked the top 10. Austin Ekeler, most notably, went to a school I’ve never heard of and finished with the No. 1 stats for all running backs in 2022.

No running back picked in the last two rounds has had a top-10 season (for this 10-year group).

Even when you compared undrafted versus the best if the fifth round, undrafted has been better.

The results of some mock dynasty drafts were posted yesterday, with various leagues firing off 48 picks at rookies. The numbers below suggest there’s probably a running back who wasn’t even picked who’ll be more productive than anybody taken in the last two rounds of that dynasty draft.

UNDRAFTED RB (10 best 2013-22)
YearPlayerYrRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2022Austin Ekeler, LAC6915107102218378.71
2023Raheem Mostert, Mia.9101225103721269.75
2020James Robinson, Jac.1107049111910252.47
2014C.J. Anderson, Den.28493488310211.311
2018Phillip Lindsay, Den.1103735107210222.813
2016Isaiah Crowell, Cle.3952409927209.114
2020J.D. McKissic, Was.5365804453193.417
2021Darrel Williams, K.C.4558476058196.021
2023Jaylen Warren, Pitt.2784618454200.421
2024Rico Dowdle, Dall.510793911185201.823
--Average3.8862529149.6233.613.3
7TH ROUND RB (10 best 2013-22)
YearPlayerYrRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2019Chris Carson, Sea.312303712679240.612
2023Isiah Pacheco, K.C.2935449799215.915
2021Myles Gaskin, Mia.3612496617175.625
2022Eno Benjamin, 3TM331325338289.651
2021Justin Jackson, LAC436422386288.259
2017Kerwynn Williams, Ari.442610436167.971
2016Dwayne Washington, Det.126510275148.774
2019Bo Scarbrough, Det.23771378145.279
2018Marcus Murphy, Buff.425011261038.688
2017Tommy Bohanon, Jac.55611328.893
--Average3.1478224993.5103.956.7
6TH ROUND RB (10 best 2013-22)
YearPlayerYrRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2016Spencer Ware, K.C.4921339545199.816
2014Andre Ellington, Ari.2660467065181.519
2015Theo Riddick, Det.3133802133181.019
2021Elijah Mitchell, S.F.1963199826165.026
2017Rex Burkhead, N.E.5264302948129.839
2022Khalil Herbert, Chi.273197405117.841
2021Ty Johnson, NYJ3238342724119.046
2015Alfred Blue, Hou.2698157133113.747
2018Elijah McGuire, NYJ227619295489.955
2021Boston Scott, Phil.4373133867100.656
--Average2.8526305565.0139.836.4
5TH ROUND RB (10 best 2013-22)
YearPlayerYrRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2019Aaron Jones, G.B.3108449113319318.82
2024Kyren Williams, LAR3129934133316278.17
2016Jordan Howard, Chi.113132913427232.110
2016Jay Ajayi, Mia.212722712998217.311
2023Jerome Ford, Cle.2813448579213.216
2017Alex Collins, Balt.2973239966175.019
2013Zac Stacy, St.L.1973269998185.421
2017Chris Thompson, Was.4294393336155.427
2022Tyler Allgeier, Atl.110351610514159.430
2014Denard Robinson, Jac.2582236054117.638
--Average2.1964319958.7205.218.1

—Ian Allan

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